Donside stays onside with the SNP

So as it turned out, Duncan Hothersall's profound sense of gloom about Labour's prospects of winning a by-election in a traditional area of strength was fully justified -

SNP 42.0%
Labour 33.3%
Liberal Democrats 8.3%
Conservatives 7.7%
UKIP 4.8%
Greens 1.7%
National Front 1.0%
Scottish Christian Party 0.9%
SDA 0.1%

I'm old enough (and in fact anyone over the age of about four is old enough) to know that by-elections that are supposed to be routine can easily produce a jaw-dropping "where did that come from?" result on the night. The examples in recent years alone are plentiful - Glasgow East, Dunfermline and West Fife, Glenrothes, Bradford West. So in spite of the bookies' odds, I sat down to watch the result tonight with a certain amount of trepidation. I needn't have worried, though. The idea that this was some kind of moral victory for Labour is laughable. It's almost an iron law in politics - governments shed votes in by-elections, oppositions gain them. Labour in this instance even had the advantage of being a 'double opposition' - they are in opposition both at Westminster and in Holyrood. They were also fighting in territory that they comfortably held at the 2010 UK general election. In a nutshell, this is a by-election they should have been expecting to win with a bit to spare, not aiming to "get the SNP below 50%", as the sainted Ms Dugdale absurdly claimed at the start of proceedings tonight.

The SNP deserve huge credit for avoiding the mistake that Labour themselves have made on so many occasions in defending 'safe seats', by treating the by-election and the constituency with the full respect they deserved. A party that doesn't act like it 'owns' certain votes or is 'entitled' to them is a much more attractive proposition. This is a win that was hard-earned, and all the sweeter for it.

There was also a very interesting tidbit from Stewart Maxwell at the end of the night - apparently the full results of the SNP's canvassing of referendum voting intentions in Donside show Yes on 34% and No on 29%. On the face of it, that flatly contradicts Mark McDonald's supposed "bombshell admission" that most people in the constituency would vote No if the referendum was held now, but perhaps there was a follow-up question to undecided voters asking how they were leaning at present.

Now then. What you're about to read is something that UKIP's "Scottish leader" Lord Monckton actually said tonight on the BBC results programme. This is not a typo.

"UKIP are the most pro-European of all the Scottish parties."

As naturalistic sentences in the English language go, that's right up there with "Hitler was the most pro-Jewish of all the French dictators". Apparently, though, Monckton's appearance on the BBC was a model of sanity and factual accuracy compared to his contribution to the STV coverage just a few minutes earlier, which I sadly missed. Andrea Parma told me that Monckton had followed in Nigel Farage's admirable footsteps by making reference to an epochal "Stirling by-election", which most of us are mysteriously unable to recall. Is this the UKIP equivalent of holocaust denial - "the media are lying to you, resist the drugs, there WAS a Stirling by-election"?

I checked Twitter to see if I could find out what Monckton had actually said about "that night in Stirling", but alas, I couldn't spot any direct reference. What I did find, however, more than made up for it. I'm still struggling to regain my composure.

Kieran Andrews : #scotnight has the beginnings of the Ukip Scottish empire. Lord Monckton interview is extraordinary.

Kirsty Boyle : This dude Monckton is a Barry Humphries character isn't he?

Doug Daniel : Lord Monckton just claimed Alex Salmond was thrown out of the Labour party for being too left wing. Funniest thing ever?

Andy Neil : The interviewer on #scotnight trying to stifle laughter as Lord Monckton makes things up.

Christina McKelvie : Monckton!!! OMG!!!

Magnus Jamieson : Bahahahaha, hilarious from Monckton! Legitimately hilarious! @Radical_Indy "sent from SNP". Literally laughing out loud.

Jonathan Mackie : Hahahahah @stvclaire stunned into silence as Monckton claims Salmond was chucked out of Labour party.

Lallands Peat Worrier : Alex Salmond was thrown out of the Labour party for being too left wing, suggests Monckton. #counterfactualhistory

Andrew Drynan : Is Monckton even on this planet ???

Fraser / Friseal : Bernard Ponsonby’s raised eyebrows said it all about Lord Monckton there.

Sophia Pangloss : *actual fell aff ma settee there...*

Anne Don : Monckton states nationalists are racist, but he is "more Scottish than most Scots".

Rattlecans : They've actually let that Monckton dude on the telly! Whit?

Alasdair Stephen : Lord Monckton just revealed that Alex Salmond was expelled from Labour Party for being too left wing!

Norman McQuade : Can any political anoraks remember if Monckton is firstly earth born and secondly gave the Scotland on Sunday a piece yonks ago?

David Clegg : Did that Lord Monckton interview really happen?!!!!

Cath Ferguson : Yes. Lord Viscount Monckton whatever is apparently "more Scots" than the average Scot. Whatever that's supposed to mean.

Kirsty Boyle : Alex Salmond gave birth to an alien baby before leading the Tories #monckton #UKIPversionoffacts

Joseph MacFarlane : No justice if that Monckton interview doesn't go viral.

Gavin Newlands : Anybody think that Monckton has been on a tour of distilleries on polling day? #heishallucinating

Alan Mackie : After hearing Monckton on #scotnight - have changed my mind. UKIP should be welcomed if only for the entertainment of their comedy madness.

Magnus Jamieson : You cannot make up characters like Monckton. You just cannot. The Universe gifts them to us once a blue moon to reaffirm our humanity.

Jason Rose : Ah, Monckton. Many years ago I interviewed him from his hospital bed about a jigsaw he invented. Mad as a bag of spiders.

Jonny McFarlane : @stvclaire momentarily stunned by total recall special effect claiming Salmond was booted out of #labour for being a socialist!

Wipe away those tears, folks - but yes, this might just be the last ever edition of the Daily Duncan

One good thing I would have said about controversial Labour activist Duncan Hothersall until a few short hours ago was that he didn't seem to be one of those people (naming no names, but James Mackenzie) who huffily march off with their ball at the first sign of anyone daring to disagree with them. Even after a fair number of sharp exchanges, Duncan still followed me on Twitter, and I still followed him. Refreshingly mature, I might (almost) have said.

Alas, it turns out that even a man of Duncan's renowned tolerance and saintly political ecumenicism has his breaking-point. At the end of the following exchange, I noticed all of a sudden that not only was Duncan no longer following me, but I was no longer following him. As I hadn't unfollowed him, that could only mean one thing - he had gone the whole hog and blocked me altogether. Take a look for yourself and see if you can decide which particular example of my vile Cybernat hate-speech may have tipped the balance, and made such a drastic step unavoidable.

On the whole, I'm sure Duncan will have very few regrets about blocking someone with alternative political views who is uncivil enough to actually answer back now and again. The only minor downside I can see for him is that he might find me slightly less accommodating the next time he curtly demands that I spare his blushes by removing a comment from this blog.

For my own part, I dare say I'll come to terms with this blow eventually. Call me paranoid, though, but I can't help feeling that it significantly increases the risk of me being blackballed at my hard-earned #Twinner initiation ceremony next year. I'll just have to hope they show some mercy, and break the bad news before inviting me to press my tongue against the underside of the Sacred Gerbil.

*  *  *

The SNP : @markmcdsnp will stand up against Labour/Tory council plans to close Bramble Brae and Middleton Park schools.

The SNP : @markmcdsnp said: "There is no educational justification whatever for the council's closure plans."

The SNP : @markmcdsnp said: "An SNP win on Thursday is vital if these excellent schools are to be saved"

The SNP : @markmcdsnp: “The closure plans are wrong on educational grounds, and must be opposed for the sake of the children"

Duncan Hothersall : SNP incredibly jumpy on #Donside. What's going on? Pre-poll nerves or opinion poll worries?

Scottish Labour : The track record of @markmcdsnp - as an MSP, Mark voted to cut £2 million from Aberdeen College cutting thousands of student places.

Scottish Labour : The track record of @markmcdsnp - as an MSP, Mark voted against a solution to stop Bedroom Tax evictions across Scotland #donside

Duncan Hothersall : The other parties are relentlessly attacking the SNP, says the SNP, in between relentless attacks on the other parties. :-)

Me : Scottish Labour do look a bit jumpy, though, Duncan. Just judging by their tweets. Bad private polls?

Duncan Hothersall : SNP are defending a 7,000 majority. Not jumpy to attack that.

Me : But Labour hold the equivalent seat(s) at Westminster, don't they? Shouldn't they at least have a 50/50 chance?

Duncan Hothersall : Even for you that's pathetic.

Me : Explain?

Duncan Hothersall : Well, you habitually pick fights on basis of feeble arguments, but this one takes the biscuit. Any clearer?

Me : "Picking a fight"? Who is the aggression coming from in this exchange? Why is my argument "feeble"?

Duncan Hothersall : Off you trot.

Me : I'll take that as a "no, I can't explain why I don't expect Labour to win in area of traditional strength".

Duncan Hothersall : Other than pointing out a 7,000 majority for the SNP. Making this not an area of current Labour strength.

Me : "Current" excludes the 2010 general election, which elected the UK government that currently rules over us?

Duncan Hothersall : If this were a Westminster by-election that might make sense, but it isn't, so it doesn't. Enough daft laddie nonsense from you.

Me : So you agree that Donside is an area of current Labour strength in Westminster terms? Shouldn't they be doing better?

Duncan Hothersall : You do know this isn't a Westminster by-election, yes? People vote differently in different types of election, yes? Basic stuff.

Me : As far as I can see, voters barely make that distinction at all in by-elections. Why do you expect Labour to lose?

Duncan Hothersall : Evidence of that assertion?

Me : It's an observation. Glasgow East didn't feel much like a Westminster contest, but it was. Only difference is UK-wide coverage.

Duncan Hothersall : So you have no evidence. You think the electorate are too stupid to know what sort of representative they are choosing? I don't.

Me : You think people are stupid enough to believe a great many things, Duncan, so why start underestimating them now?

Duncan Hothersall : (no reply, blocked me)