Holborn & St Pancras by-election result (8th October 2026):
Labour 45.2% (-3.7)
Greens 32.8% (+22.4)
Conservatives 7.1% (-0.1)
Reform UK 5.9% (-0.2)
Liberal Democrats 3.4% (-2.4)
Restore Britain 2.5% (n/a)
Workers Party of Britain 1.1% (n/a)
Rejoin EU 0.8% (n/a)
Monster Raving Loony Party 0.3% (-0.1)
Christian Peoples Alliance 0.2% (n/a)
Climate Party 0.2% (n/a)
UKIP 0.2% (-)
UK Voice 0.1% (n/a)
Communist League 0.0% (n/a)
Independent - Darwood 0.0% (n/a)
As you can see, it would be a bit of a stretch to paint this outcome as some sort of unmitigated catastrophe for the Green Party of England & Wales. It was their second-best result of all-time in a parliamentary by-election, they more than trebled their vote share since the 2024 general election, and they enjoyed a 13% swing from Labour. Even if you assume that they pretty much inherited Andrew Feinstein's considerable support in the constituency from 2024, their vote share was still higher than the combined Green / Feinstein vote at the general election. It was only a disappointing result for them in the psychological sense that they had put forward their leader Zack Polanski as candidate, which made it look like they were going all-out for victory and that only an outright victory would do.
But if the rumours are true that Andy Burnham was watching this result closely to see if it is worth the risk of calling a snap general election next spring, I'm not sure that what he's seen will have cut the mustard. What he really needed was not simply evidence consistent with the current national opinion polls that the Greens are not doing quite as well as they were in the late days of Starmer, but instead proof that that there is a potential for them to totally collapse and perhaps slump to only 3% or 4% nationwide, allowing Labour to hoover up their votes and just about squeeze out an overall majority in terms of seats. There's absolutely no sign of that here. The story is actually one of considerable Green resilience, which if it continues to hold up could make a Labour majority all but impossible in a snap election.
Not that you'd be aware of that nuanced picture if you tuned in to Sky News at midnight to hear Jon Craig give an introductory monologue that was the most insanely biased you'll ever encounter on any channel that is not called GB News. We were informed:
1) That the by-election was a "disaster" for the Greens - even though by that point Craig already had a fair idea of the result and even read out an estimate that Labour were on course for around 40% and the Greens were on course for around 30%. I can't have been the only person sitting there scratching my head and thinking "er, that doesn't sound like much of a disaster for the Greens to me, Jon".
2) That it didn't really matter how Zack Polanski tried to recover from his "disaster" because he might well be on his way out as leader within a few weeks. Now, it's quite true that Polanksi's position being publicly questioned by one of his direct predecessors (Caroline Lucas) is a very unusual situation that is well worthy of note, but to give the impression that Lucas is so "respected" that her intervention makes Polanski's leadership untenable is not only a biased piece of analysis, it's a really poor piece of analysis. It ignores the fact that the source of Lucas' discontent is her dislike of the resolution about Zionism passed by the Green rank-and-file themselves. The idea that she'll effectively be able to mount a coup not only against the leader but also against the majority position of the members is stretching credibility somewhat. If anything, the member backlash is likely to be against Lucas herself, and Polanski's position may even be strengthened.
3) That it was just an absolute given that the motion about Zionism must have been detested by voters and must have contributed to the Greens' "disastrous" result in the by-election. Craig recounted an anecdote about a voter who had cast a postal vote for the Greens a few weeks ago, but who was so disgusted by the Zionism motion that he went to the polling station to cancel his postal vote and to cast a vote for Labour instead (I'd be surprised if that's even permissible under the rules, but that's what Craig claimed). But it didn't seem to even occur to Craig that the very fact that the Greens took one-third of the vote was a strong indication that his anecdote could not possibly have been representative, and indeed that there may have been many voters who reacted to the Zionism motion in completely the opposite way.
My view is that Craig's far-out ramblings are further evidence of a right-wing ratchet effect in the mainstream media. The extreme nature of GB News and similar outlets coaxes mainstream journalists into a sense that they are just being 'neutral' when they unthinkingly parrot right-wing talking points. And of course there's the permanent in-built protective bias towards Israel, which makes it impossible for journalists to even conceive of a political party experiencing anything other than severe negative effects for daring to speak out against genocide and apartheid outwith the tight constraints deemed permissible and decent by the establishment.
Later in the programme, the Sky studio presenter 'corrected' a Green spokesman who mentioned the genocide by saying "we have to point out, of course, that the Israeli government denies that there has been a genocide". Really? You're still doing that even at this stage? Would you interrupt a guest who mentioned the Russian invasion of Ukraine by saying "we have to point out, of course, that the Russian government denies invading Ukraine and says that the army has simply been conducting a special military operation"? Because that would be no more fatuous as a 'clarification'.
Well, we needn't have feared that the Alba soap opera would end when the party did. Good old Robert "Wonderbairn" Reid - who else would take legal action against a party that no longer exists? It's a kind of genius in its own way. The Feud Shall Never Die.
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) October 8, 2026
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Are there two Jon Craig's?
ReplyDeleteOnly two? There are at least nine, surely?
DeletePolanski blew it. Massive error of judgement. He has to go. The motion, even with the rejected amendments, was the stuff of dreams for the MSM and BBC.
ReplyDeleteYou must think he's the leader of the Tory party if you think his members are going to remotely share your view.
DeleteI think The Greens increased their share by 20% which is unlike all the other parties who lost votes. I blame Nicola myself. As for the motion put foreword at the party conference just before the byelection, I smell s....
DeleteAnon at 1.49. You appear incapable of understanding what people are saying. Try a night class.
DeleteAnon at 1.54. They simply inherited the votes of another Independent who did not stand this time. Polanski blew it. He needs to resign. He is a liability.
Delete2.15 Why do you care so much about a leader of an English party standing in an English election? Do you live in the constituency? The Green share was up and Labour’s down, so how did Polanski blow it? Sowing the seeds of shit springs to mind!
DeleteA night class - haven't heard that phrase since the 70's!
DeleteA stupid motion which won them nothing. Prob would have still lost but now its all about that
ReplyDeleteExactly this. The motion, even if the amendment had been successful, was still a huge error of judgement. It muddied the waters and the BBC and MSM loved it.
DeleteHumza Yousaf's strong stand on Gaza while First Minister deserves praise. He also deserves credit for his focus on anti-hate and anti-rasicm initiatives.
ReplyDeleteAn under-rated First Minister who deserved longer in the job and had been growing in sureness-of-touch.
Worth noting that he was in fact brought down by the Green Party. This will not quickly be forgotten
His sureness of touch was legendary. He made a great speech at conference.
DeleteI reckon the Greens are well ahead of the pack with their Zionism policy.
ReplyDeleteAlmost the entire world already agrees with them, apart from bought-and-sold governments and media who simply do not reflect the views of their populations on this.
The Greens have this one spot-on, as all decent folk agree.
I agree.
DeleteUnfortunately, both the UK Govt and UK media are so biased for the repugnant Israeli regime and so against sticking up for the human rights of Palestinians in Gaza that there is already the usual frantic feeding frenzy when any political party does not toe the pro-Israel line.
That is the sad reality of a UK in denial about a blatant ongoing Genocide in Gaza.
I agree, but you don’t have to reckon anything. Polling is clear. Sympathies of the UK public lie 60% to Palestinians and 40% to the Israelis (excluding don’t know & equal sympathy) YouGov June 2026.
DeleteAnd that’s with the saturation pro Israel propaganda from the legacy media.
The Green Party (E & W) are ahead of the curve on this. One day genocide apologists such as Julia Hartley Brewer will be rightly shunned like Holocaust deniers like David Irvine.
Fair point.
DeleteThe disgraceful amoral and spineless stance of most of the UK 'establishment' in all this, will go down in history as every bit as bad as those who appeased Hitler and The Nazis.
Im confused by the +22 for the greens when labour only lost 3 and none of the others have had dramatic changes? Was the previous second an independent ?
ReplyDeleteHighly-regarded Jon Craig was very explicit that his comments were to be understood within the context of (i) expectations a few months earlier in the Gorton and Denton by election and (ii) a pro-Gaza independent having stood in the General Election but not in the by election.
DeleteHighly regarded by who, exactly?
DeleteBy whom would be the correct grammar.
DeleteLook at the turnout. Apathy won by a mile. People are scunnered by the lot of them. Show me a politician that doesn’t lie then you’re not showing me a politician.
ReplyDeleteRosemount/Midstocket (Aberdeen) Council By-Election Result [1st Prefs]:
ReplyDeleteSNP: 27.9% (-9.9)
CON: 24.1% (-0.5)
LAB: 17.3% (-4.2)
GRN: 10.7% (+1.4)
RFM: 10.5% (New)
LDM: 6.2% (-0.7)
Ind: 2.2% (New)
Ind: 1.2% (New)
This demonstrates the SNP's strategic nous under John Swinney - no need to win by a large margin, just put enough resource in to win and keep gun powder for next battle.
DeleteUh huh
DeleteFrom the Guardian:
ReplyDelete"Motion calling for single Palestinian state, which is opposed by most Green MPs and expected to be challenged, passes by 1,022 votes to 813...
The Greens have formally adopted a policy that equates Zionism with racism and calls for Israel to be replaced by a single Palestinian state, a move opposed by the bulk of the party’s MPs and which is expected to face legal challenge.
Zack Polanski, who heads the Greens in England and Wales and missed the vote at the party’s conference in Brighton to campaign in the Holborn and St Pancras byelection, has faced criticism for a perceived lack of leadership on a hugely divisive issue."
I think, 1022 members out of 200,000 members if you believe the Greens, or otherwise 160,000 - less than 1% anyway, and Polanski not opposing it in its unamended form, potentially cost him the election. By-elections are often "protest" votes - the extremism of calling Zionism which has several meanings (as opposed to the Israeli Government) "racist" would put a lot of voters off.
The conference was hijacked - as with all these things it should be OMOV.
Okey-doke. I've said before that the UK could not protest about Israel, as without Israel the UK's defence would be defunct - perhaps particularly in cyber.
ReplyDeleteSince the UK is now protesting and taking action, presumably they have nearly unentangled themselves from Israel.
I have no inside knowledge at all; this is purely my opinion.