History doesn't record whether the Roman Emperor tried to win over the reluctant Caledonian tribes by setting up a "Senate North" somewhere really northern and close to them (like Milan), but even if he did it plainly didn't do the trick. Judging from the latest Scottish subsample from YouGov, Andy Burnham is proving to be a similar flop Beyond The Wall. However, he's not doing all that well further south either, because Reform UK have retaken the lead GB-wide.
Britain-wide voting intentions (16th-17th August 2026):
Reform UK 24% (+2)
Labour 22% (-2)
Conservatives 19% (-2)
Greens 13% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 12% (+1)
Restore Britain 4% (-)
SNP 3% (-)
Plaid Cymru 1% (-1)
As the fieldwork dates for the poll were well after the Clacton by-election, it looks like that contest may have provided a modest boost for Reform. A lot of people have been engaged in a 'fake it until it's real' effort to convince themselves that a novelty candidate taking more than a quarter of the vote was in itself some sort of obvious humiliation for Farage, but the reality is that Reform took a good vote share on a respectable turnout, so there was no way the result was ever going to be harmful to them. This poll is also a useful corrective to the notion that the normal party system is returning and that the Tories are gradually overhauling Reform. In fact, the Tories have been stuck in third place in all recent polls, apart from the one conducted by Lord Ashcroft, who is not affiliated to the British Polling Council and who uses an extremely strange, atypical, and questionable methodology.
Scottish subsample: SNP 35%, Reform UK 19%, Labour 18%, Liberal Democrats 13%, Conservatives 7%, Greens 6%, Restore Britain 2%
The SNP have been ahead in all of the YouGov subsamples since Andy Burnham became Labour leader, with the size of the lead oscillating from middling to high - and this one is an example of high. Labour's vote share this week is consistent with their performance in the only full-scale Scottish poll of the Burnham era so far, in which they were in the high teens and just barely ahead of Reform.
To put in perspective how badly Burnham has flopped in Scotland, it's worth remembering that even Jeremy Corbyn managed 19% of the Scottish popular vote in his supposedly disastrous 2019 general election campaign.
* * *
This is Post 6 of "Seven Days of Retro Scot Goes Pop" - a shameless gimmick in which I attempt to solve this blog's funding problems in the space of a week with a conventional text-blogging marathon to help promote my Ko-Fi donations page, during which period pre-moderation in the comments section will be switched off. My target for the week is to either get up to 60 regular monthly supporters on Ko-Fi (as of now I have 22), or to reach £1500 in one-off donations to the page, or some sort of combination of a bit of both. In an equally shameless attempt to coax KC's stinking rich Tory landowner chums in Surrey into helping to fund Scot Goes Pop, I have pledged to try to leave pre-moderation switched off even after the seven days are over, but only if at least one of the targets is met in full. Yes, it's time to play hardball with our resident "Nessie" enthusiast.
If you might be interested in making either a small recurring monthly donation or a one-off donation, please check out my Ko-Fi page HERE.
YouGov Westminster voting intention, field work 16 - 17 Aug, population sample 2,441.
ReplyDeleteHeadline; RefUK 2% lead, 4% swing to RefUK.
RefUK 24% (+2], Lab 22% (-2), Con 19% (-2), LibDem 12% (+1), Green 13% (+1).
Scottish sub-sample (212)
Con 9%, Lab 18%, LibDem 13%, SNP 35%, RefUK 19%, Green 6%.
Plugged into Electoral Calculus model with Scottish fitness.
Headline; RefUK 105 seats short of majority.
RefUK 221, Lab 166, Con 88, LibDem 71, SNP 48, Green 33, Plaid 3, others 2.
No route to a Right wing government and any Labour led administration would have to cast a very wide net to attain a majority.
One Tory seat in Scotland, plus Ian “Teflon” Murray.
Labour hammered by RefUK in the east of their Liverpool Manchester corridor. Also hit big time by the Greens in the London inner boroughs.
Er...I said quite a bit of that in the blogpost you're replying to!
DeleteAye well. Apologies. I started typing it up at half ten this morning but kept getting distracted by work.
DeleteYet another Palestine Action trial has ended with the jury refusing to convict.
ReplyDeleteJudge Patrick Field discharged the jury after 37 hours of deliberations.
Should’a put Judge Jeremy Johnson in charge. The British state’s version of Roland Freisler would’a got a conviction even if he had to personally pull out the jury’s fingernails one by one.
The eight hardened terrorists on trial included 53 year old Hannah Davidson from Edinburgh
With the unionist vote now split 5 ways it would be a grim state of affairs if the SNP weren’t ahead!
ReplyDeleteThis sub sample is consistent with the vast majority of polls, as in the pro Indy/pro union split is roughly 40/60. This is concerning, to say the least.
No it really isn't.
DeleteAs James has pointed out many, many times, there are substantial percentages of Labour, Libdem, and smaller percentages of even Tories and Reform voters in an election, who would still vote Yes in an independence referendum.
You simply cannot extrapolate indy support from voting intentions in an election.
There are countless 1000s of YES folk not voting SNP, I’m one of them, that will vote yes in the next referendum. Usual suspects will tell me that by voting SNP is the only way we will get another referendum. Aye right. How’s that been working out, plus the current crop of SNP politicians are absolute featherweight non entities.
ReplyDeleteMissing you already, pal.
DeleteYou really are a bit of a silly non-entity yourself arent you.
DeleteAnd the alternative to the SNP is?
DeleteThere isn’t an alternative to the SNP which is the sad thing that the SNP vote is only at 35%. Not a glowing endorsement, is it.
DeleteYou're not a YES voter and you're not very convincing as a disillusioned heartbroken soul.
DeleteI find it quite incredible that some people think there should be another independence referendum. You lot had your once in a generation, as Alex Salmond put it, referendum in 2014.
ReplyDeleteDo you seriously think Westminster is going to keep granting you a referendum, until you get the result you want?
Anybody who thinks so is deluded!
KC It was actually a once in 307 years referendum. The Britnats are just so generous with their get out of jail card. Previously it was ethnic cleansing or the bayonet was the only way out.
DeleteKC you just told everyone what you and Westminster are. Colonial fascists. I expect you will be proud of that label.
Desperate stuff from anon @9:04pm!
DeleteHey KC,
DeleteIf there were to be, say, a full years worth of Indy polling showing Yes in a consistent lead and averaging around 60%, do you think Scots were telling you and WM that they want another referendum, or are you so far gone down the unionist undemocratic rabbit hole?
Anon@10:26pm,
DeleteYour point is hypothetical. There’ll never be a poll showing Yes at 60%, never mind a full year of polls.
Even Find Out Now polls for the National don’t come close to that!!
Lets have brexit vote. 62% -ignored the wishes of Scots. Fact is London doesnt care about Scotland except for oil, gas, fishing, agriculture, wind energy, hydro, solar ........ water and the rest.
DeleteNationalist bullshit!
DeleteI see KC avoided the straightforward question put to him.
DeleteTypical Yoon Balloon.
Even if a much bigger percentage of Scots wanted another referendum, than the percentage of Brits who wanted Brexshit, dross like KC would still ignore it.
Unionist dross like KC apply totally different standards and thresholds when it comes to Scotland, as opposed to the UK.
Always have done and always will do.
You are a liar but you know that.
DeleteYes, a majority of Scots voted against Brexit, including myself. However the UK, which we are part of, voted for Brexit.
DeleteI, like many, accept the democratic vote, even though I thought, and still think Brexit was a bad idea.
As I say, I accept the Brexit referendum result, unlike people like you who can’t accept the 2014 independence referendum.
You lot really need to take a long hard look at yourselves, it’s pathetic, bordering on pitiful.
Where do you keep your balaclava? Come on, all you British nationalists have at last two of them, your Mum is washing one while you wear the other one
DeleteOh dear!
DeleteIs that the best you can do anon@9:06?
KC really does seem to be one of those ranting nationalists from what's left of the Empire. They're quite rabid.
DeleteAt shortly before 10am yesterday, on the previous thread, I posted making 2 very valid points. I had hoped someone might at least have attempted to address them! However all I got was a couple of insults. Disappointing, but not unexpected!
ReplyDeleteTo recap, my first point was that some of you keep mentioning the “benefits of independence”, without saying what these “benefits” actually are!
The second point was the fact that the really important issues regarding independence were never addressed satisfactorily in 2014, and still haven’t been! These issues, of course, being the likes of border with England, pensions, currency, replacing the billions received from Westminster every year through the Barnett Formula, etc, etc. It’s blatantly obvious that the pension issue is of particular concern to older Scots.
Like I say, no response from anyone, not even Mr know it all himself Ifs!
So come on “Indy” supporters, put forward your case for independence by addressing these points. The anti English stuff dosen’t cut it, and in fact puts decent Scots off independence.
Let’s hear a strong case that would convince undecideds and soft No voters of the merits of independence.
I’m all ears!
Hey big ears you ain’t no decent Scot. You are a Britnat.
DeleteKC, you still managed to avoid answering whether bitter wee Yoons like you would accept that us Scots want another referendum/independence, if the percentage who support Yes in polling is consistently above the level of Brexshit vote.
ReplyDeleteThe reason for your avoidance is very obvious - you apply totally different standards and thresholds when it comes to Scotland, as opposed to the UK.
Always have done and always will do.
What an utterly pathetic response to my post@9:23!
DeleteIt's not really. It's bang on. You are just a troll. A sad wee man in every respect and no life out with Internet forums. Try and get your hole. Second oldest virgin in Bath? Nah. Even Campbell is better than you and he is an arsehole. Toddle back to your bedroom. Wash down your keyboard. Go outside. Meet people. Get help. No thanks needed.
DeleteSo anon@12:55pm, you can’t come up with any “benefits of Indy”!!!!!!!!!
DeleteYour desire for independence is obviously driven by a hatred for England and the English!
Clearly a sad desperate individual!
Yeh well england have recent leaders like liz truss Johnson starmer thatcher and co. All known for their love of Scotland Ireland Cymru France Spain Italy......... KS your gussett is showing!
DeleteAnon@12.55pm you are a very unpleasant person. KC you are a Britnat weirdo.
DeleteDoes we know if KC is planning a career reboot? Hope so. Keep it coming love. Some great hits.
DeleteBelieve it or not, there was a 'Senate North' when the Roman Imperial court was based at York, at least twice. Wasn't good news for the Caledonians however, as the only reason emperors based themselves there was the better to attack what is now Scotland
ReplyDeleteBBC Scotland with a "documentary" on Glasgow.The city Council need to get imvolved here and heads need to roll at the BBC. Blatant racism and promotion of far right groups with direct links to Northern Ireland. Only the BBC would do this. The police ought to be having a word as well.
ReplyDeleteAbsolutely spot on!
DeleteWell, I’m still waiting for somebody to come up with the “benefits of Indy”.
ReplyDeleteIt’s now coming up on 36 hours since I asked the question!
Not a good look chaps. It’s increasingly looking like there are no “benefits”, and peoples desire for independence is driven by a hatred or a dislike at least, for England and the English(going by some of the moronic comments anyway).
Very sad. However the good news for us Yoons is that this attitude puts an awful lot of decent Scots off the idea of independence.
Funny how KC is silent on the benefits of being ruled by England.
DeleteAbove is a demonstration of the hatred and intelligence of the so called unionists, it thinks if it disrupts lies and attacks the conversation of those who desire independence for their country then it's a winner and more of the followers of its lunacy will join with it
ReplyDeleteThat strategy has been proven wrong at every level, as it simply annoys those who already are convinced by the argument of independence and increases the interest of those previously on the fence as to why such a wonderful fulfilling union with England must be defended by those filled with such bitter hatred for their own country folk
If there is or ever was a union with England based on mutual good why then must it be denied to the people of Scotland to choose whether to leave the union as should be their choice in any other union that exists on planet earth
If you join a thing then you can leave a thing, if you marry then you can divorce
England is a parasite country that the entire world recognises as such, it's how its empire was built, on theft military force and genocide, and like the Roman empire every country that England conquered was pressed into service for its empire
KC is also a parasite who cannot exist on his own, but exists by feeding on the bitterness he tries to create
A blood sucking tick that must be pulled off the host that it lives off like the country and system he defends, England
No country can save England from itself, it must live or die without the blood of other countries
It's coming KC and there isn't a damn thing you or your ilk can do to prevent it, freedom is inevitable
Embarrassing stuff!
DeleteAnd, of course, nothing on the so called “benefits of Indy”.
Oh dear!
Too much KC and not enough Sunshine Band.
DeleteKC = moonshine.
Delete