The most dispiriting aspect of the controversy surrounding Dave Doogan is that it's given the controversial Somerset-based "Stew" blogger an excuse to yet again trot out his barking mad fantasy about how the SNP supposedly turned down a chance to get an independence referendum in the 2017-19 parliament by refusing to do a deal with Theresa May to support her Brexit deal. To reiterate yet again, such a deal would have been completely impossible, because:
* The SNP couldn't have delivered the goods for May arithmetically. There were still many Tory MPs who were obeying the whip on Brexit votes at that point out of standard party loyalty, but for whom a deal with the SNP potentially paving the way for Scotland to become an independent country would have been the final straw. May would have been left with fewer votes for her Brexit deal, not more.
* It would never have got to that point anyway, because May herself would never have entertained a deal with the SNP. The sanctity of "Our Pweshus Union", as risible as it seems to us, was one of her few core beliefs and she would never have compromised on it.
To turn to the potential deal with Reform that Dave Doogan was asked about, it's true that we can't say the arithmetic wouldn't work this time because the question is predicated on purely hypothetical arithmetic. But even if a deal was arithmetically possible, think about what it would actually entail. It wouldn't be a 'once and done' affair of voting to install Nigel Farage as Prime Minister - paradoxically that's the one vote that wouldn't be necessary, because under the UK system Prime Ministers are appointed by the King, not elected by Parliament. It would mean SNP MPs voting day in, day out to implement Reform's far-right agenda for potentially three or four years, or however long it takes to hold an independence referendum and subsequently negotiate an independence settlement. Even a more limited confidence-and-supply deal would mean voting in favour of the main essentials.
Now, of course we all know why Stew is utterly baffled as to why there is any problem with that - he's gone full fascist and thinks implementing far-right policies is a completely normal thing to do and that no reasonable person could possibly disagree with it. But that's certainly not the centre of gravity in Scottish public opinion, and if in the run-up to any independence referendum the main party of independence becomes associated with implementing soft fascism...well, whisper it gently but that might just possibly have a detrimental effect on the Yes vote, because voters will make inferences about what the values of the politicians running an independent Scotland will be.
By the same token, the chance to escape an impending Reform government is one of the USPs of the independence movement at present (again, Stew may find that baffling but it's true just the same) and it's a statement of the obvious that the SNP failing to rule out propping up a Reform government would mean throwing that advantage away. So of course Dave Doogan has done the right thing by clarifying his remarks.
Tommy Shepherd says defacto referendum is not the way forward. It's obvious the only SNP plan is a Section 30. This is not a party of independence, surely everyone can see this now.
ReplyDeleteStu should create the Wings Party he promised and lead Scotland to freedom !
DeleteI think the only point at which the SNP had leverage to extract a deal to the advantage of Scotland was immediately before Boris Johnson’s “Get Brexit Done”, crash election. Johnson was still dependent on Theresa May’s deal with the Ulster Unionists. In reality, his “oven ready Brexit” depended on “putting a Customs barrier in the Irish sea”, at least that’s how the DUP and their fellow travellers regarded it and they were dead against it.
ReplyDeleteThere are four customs posts in the deal which was eventually signed. The EU are only concerned with large scale movement of goods, effectively HGVs etcetera, to deal with large scale smuggling, tariff evasion, phytosanitary and veterinary health concerns. Larne ferry terminal, Belfast docks, the Belfast airport which handles freight from the UK, and Warrenpoint container terminal.
Four customs points for the 1.9 million population of Northern Ireland equates to 2.1 customs point per million people.
A Scottish & Northern Ireland entity would have a combined population of 7.4 million. On a pro rata basis that would “entitle” it to 15 customs offices.
Northern Ireland wouldn’t require Larne anymore as it only handles HGVs originating in Scotland. That would leave 12 customs posts to cover the transit of goods from England to Scotland. Minus three possibly four airports and the Euro Central, rail freight terminal in Lanarkshire, that would leave 7 customs posts along the Solway Tweed border. There ain’t that many HGV suitable roads along that demarcation line.
We could have gotten the deal described by the Tories as the “best of both worlds”. Instead, Sturgeon stamped her wee feet and skqueeemed “No Brexit!”.
In any case, Johnson got his supermajority and railroaded the Northern Ireland deal through against the objections of the DUP etcetera.
If we had gotten the Northern Ireland “carve out”, folk would have become accustomed to the idea of a policed border between Scotland and England. It ain’t the big deal Unionists make it out to be. It’s perfectly normal for sovereign states and with a UK, Irish Republic free travel zone, a principle that massively predates even the Common Market, it would only apply to the commercial transit of goods. Margaret Curren widnae need a passport to visit her nephew in London after all.
getting what you want out of people you don't like and are your enemies - IS THE HEIGHT OF POLITICAL SKILL
ReplyDelete- if the devil himself was offering indy, you would be best to give him a hearing
if the english want to vote in reform to destroy their own country that is their democratic right
indy and indy alone restores our democratic right to have a government of our own choosing - never you mind what england wants to do to itself