Two crucial Scottish parliamentary by-elections have been triggered - one should be straightforward for the SNP but the other will be a major test

So the moment that couldn't be avoided has now arrived: Reform UK have, at least for the time being, overtaken the SNP as the fourth-largest party in the House of Commons due to Stephen Flynn and Stephen Gethins' resignations as SNP MPs.  I believe Reform have promised not to take any more Tory defectors, though, which means that the SNP will have a chance to grab fourth place straight back from Reform by winning the two by-elections to fill the vacancies.  Gethins' seat of Arbroath & Broughty Ferry shouldn't be a problem, but Aberdeen South will be extremely competitive - Flynn's margin of victory in the overlapping Holyrood seat last week was not overwhelming.  It really is so, so important psychologically that the SNP hold that seat, and I'm sure they'll be throwing the kitchen sink at it.

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Catch up with last night's blogpost: "S*** just got real, lads. The famously always wrong blogger "Stew", who said there was "zero chance, barring nuclear war or an alien invasion" of the Holyrood election producing a pro-indy majority, and who said betting on Angus Robertson to win Edinburgh Central was "free money", has now said there is "NO chance" of victory in a 2029 de facto referendum. Looks like it's ON."

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