I took a little bank holiday jaunt to the seaside earlier, and it suddenly struck me that I didn't see a single election poster anywhere on the journey. You literally wouldn't know there was an election on at all. That would have been completely unthinkable at this stage of proceedings a few years ago, and I'm wondering if that lack of visibility might in itself play a role in depressing the turnout.
The latest poll to be published is an MRP from More In Common. The journalist who first revealed the numbers was laying on the anti-SNP spin fairly thick, suggesting that the poll showed John Swinney just barely limping over the line. In truth it's actually rather a good poll for the SNP, because their constituency vote share has risen, which contradicts the trend shown by Norstat and thus increases the chances that Norstat was giving us a misleading impression due to margin of error noise. On the other hand, the SNP list vote has dropped and they are getting dangerously close to being overtaken on the list by Reform, but as long as they can avoid the psychological blow of that crossover occurring, a poor list vote share may not actually make all that much difference in terms of seats.
Scottish parliament constituency ballot (More In Common MRP poll):
SNP 35% (+2)
Reform UK 19% (-2)
Labour 17% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 13% (+1)
Conservatives 13% (+1)
Greens 2% (+1)
Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:
SNP 26% (-3)
Reform UK 22% (+3)
Labour 15% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 12% (-)
Greens 11% (+1)
Conservatives 11% (+1)
Seats projection:
SNP 60
Reform UK 22
Labour 13
Liberal Democrats 12
Conservatives 12
Greens 10
The seats projection is also a marked improvement on the previous More In Common MRP, both for the SNP on their own, and for the SNP and Greens in combination. Pro-independence parties would have 70 seats, and anti-independence parties would have 59.
In terms of the individual seats, it's heartening to see the SNP on course to win Edinburgh Central, although Labour are only seven points behind in second place, and as in 2016 there remains a significant danger that the Green intervention could split the vote and hand the seat to a unionist party. As for the Lib Dems, apart from the seats that are nailed on, they are also projected to win Edinburgh Northern and Strathkelvin & Bearsden, which is a bit ominous, although I do wonder if the MRP projections for Strathkelvin & Bearsden are going astray by using the UK general election result in Mid Dunbartonshire as a baseline.
The Tories are projected to cling on to Dumfriesshire, Aberdeenshire West and Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire, although all three are on a knife-edge between themselves and the SNP. Reform UK are projected to take Banffshire & Buchan Coast and Ayr, but the SNP are still firmly in contention in both, with Ayr practically looking like a three-way dead heat between Reform, the SNP and the Tories. Bathgate is weirdly competitive, with the SNP only one point ahead of Reform - is that because the controversial "Stew" blogger used to live there?!
Labour are projected to be completely wiped out in the constituency seats due to the SNP gaining Edinburgh Southern and Dumbarton, although I continue to wonder if sufficient account is being taken of tactical voting in those seats.
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ReplyDeleteEdinburgh S and Dumbarton are both examples of highly organised tactical voting. Can only hope enough tories in each are tempted by reform rather than yet again giving their vote to Labour. Not hugely confident this will happen. Reform are absolute scum. I don’t think most Tory voters in these constituencies are anywhere near as bad.
ReplyDeleteThe political parties signs on lamp posts all around town, often stacked high above each other, used to make elections feel more important back in the nineties when I was too young to vote. In truth, Scotland was a side show in its own story at the time: we were always overruled by England's 500+ results against us.
ReplyDeleteThe British media is absolutely talking down this election, and with it Scotland, as they know their dreams of a unionist majority are scuppered. If you can't stomach the result: scorn the election. Every Brit and Stu have been up to that for years now.
My sense is that it's going to be a messy result. The SNP might tread water, taking some and losing others, on a greatly reduced vote. Farage tearing into the Brit parties is the principal story of the election. Then Starmer's death throes starting on Friday, followed by months of wall to wall coverage of Labour party bloodbath.
It's going to be difficult to get the union jack-shagging media to pay any attention to independence. That's a problem as a mandate is its strongest when fresh out of the election. Any dithering and nothing happens.
I do not see how the MRP result for Strathkelvin and Beaesden can be remotely accurate when the most populous part of Bearsden, Bearsden North where I live, is in the Clydebank & Milngavie SP constituency. For that reason it makes no sense to base the MRP calculation on the 2024 Mid Dunbartonshire GE result. I live in a pokey wee house although there are loads of big houses up here where people often vote LibDem so it will be interesting to see what happens in Strathkelvin & Bearsden. James how accurate was MRP polling when compared to 2024 GE results in Scotland.
ReplyDeleteOnce elected, the vast majority of MSPs won't give you the time of day.
ReplyDeleteWrite to them and you'll be lucky if you even get the courtesy of a fob off response from their office staff.
Likewise the Scot Govt. Their civil servants take a month to write a fob-off response to letters the Cabinet Secretary won't bother to read.
Just be thankful if your family weren't killed by Covid infected patients being moved to spread the infection, and deaths from dirty hospitals. Then their families facing a mountain of denials from MSPs, Health Boards and Scot Govt.
And after the election it will still be the same cover-ups, corrupt managers and bent civil servants who administer the Scotland colony. The MSPs are only there for a pretence of democracy and accountability and to patronise you.
You’re on the wrong btl. The daily heil is off to the right, you silly billy.
DeleteAnon- what a load of rot. Blanket statements. Hospitals are not dirty -virus and bacteria are everywhere and vulnerable people in hospital are at risk - as with any inferctions. Patients werent moved to spread infection but to reduce the risk. It could not stop it entirely and anyone who says otherwise is talking out of Trumps UV lit up backside. So mr angry are you not just annoyed that nobody is willing to vote for you -oh great one.
DeleteGood item, James, as always. I'm in the Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley constituency, in Ayrshire, and I haven't seen any posters up anywhere. Nothing in house windows or car windows. It seems like it's taboo now to visually express your political viewpoint. I don't know how it has happened but we seem to have been crushed into silence. One good point is that I've received several promotion leaflets from Katie Hagmann, the SNP candidate here, really pushing the idea of
ReplyDeleteindependence. Strangely, I haven't had any leaflets from the tories ... not yet anyway.
Many local authority areas ban posters on lampposts such as North Ayrshire I believe. I think in one area the tories objected because kids drew moustaches on the candidates profiles (male /female) and worse.
DeleteJames it is certainly good news. If independence supporters go out and vote and then that is all we can do. My wife blocked a friend on Facebook for 60 days who is spouting reform nonsense touting the race issue. Was always a Tory but reform has allowed some to move to more extremism. When asked how many boat people arrived direct to our shores she could only say “ah but” when told the answer was zero.
ReplyDeleteSupport for the Liebore Party, Lib Dems and Tories looks suspiciously high in that poll. The projections for some of those seats you mention are also very suspect.
ReplyDeleteShort of huge Electoral Fraud there is no way the Fib Dems are taking 12 seats and no way the Tories are taking 12 seats either. They will both be in single digits. I think Liebore will be reduced to single digits as well. I can se Reform winning 22 seats unfortunately.
ReplyDeleteNo, I suspect they’ll do well. They’re not losing votes to Farage, and their "one nation" posh but nice unionism speaks to the scunnered Labour and Tory voters who can't bring themselves to vote for filth. They focus exclusively on where they can win. The Libs aim to become Scotland's bourgeois unionist voice. With the riff raff running to Farage, they may well expand their redoubt.
DeletePoor IFSy the long term unionist troll masquerading as an Indy supporter has been remarkably quiet. He has posted a couple of times in his anon guise but I suspect he knows the games up for him and his ilk. Swinney must keep his recently made promise and provoke the constitutional crisis that will ensue. Conflict is essential. I have said so for years. Bring it on.
ReplyDelete8.22pm Is that you David Francis? David masquerades as an anon but we know he is really a bampot who imagines unionists everywhere and wants conflict. He probably sees himself in charge of a drone attacking Westminster.
DeleteI received an invite from Yougov today asking about medical questions re cancer treatment. Tacked on at the end of the questionnaire were 2 questions about voting intentions for Constituency & List. Could be either private or public polling.
ReplyDeleteAnon at 10.17. Ach there's always the House o Lords!
ReplyDeleteWas on The National web site, Any click brought up a Labour advert courtesy of the Eastons? Must have cost a packet. Waste of time as the postal votes have alreasdy gone. I wonder if the Herald told the National to run the pro unionists?
ReplyDeleteJames - the Times have done the Yougov Poll. SNP projected to be within touching distance of an overall majority at 62 seats.
ReplyDelete