If a Section 30 order is refused for the umpteenth time, there must be no further procrastination - the next UK general election must be used as a de facto referendum on Scottish independence

I keep wondering what effect the Labour leadership crisis, immensely entertaining though it is, is having on Scottish public opinion.  The general rule of thumb is that the public will not vote for divided parties, so this spectacle could have a positive effect by making Labour unelectable for a very long period to come, in much the same way that the Tory government was doomed from the moment of the Trussmageddon, with Rishi Sunak effectively just serving out time from that point on.

On the other hand, the crisis does distract from the SNP's election win and the renewed mandate for the two main pro-independence parties.  The one thing we mustn't allow to happen is for the independence issue to go back to sleep as a result of Labour's woes.  We have the mandate and we must maintain a sense of urgency and use it.  The vote on a Section 30 order must go ahead, and if Westminster then say no, it's reasonable to conclude after so many exhaustive attempts that the intransigence is permanent and an alternative means of exercising the mandate must be found.  The independence movement is not going to be tolerant of any further procrastination, and justifiably so.  As Believe in Scotland said last year, the obvious way forward is to use the next UK general election as a de facto referendum on independence.

I was criticised for making that point the other day by Angus Brendan MacNeil, the former MP for Na h-Eileanan an Iar.  He wants a snap Holyrood election to be held within months instead.  I really don't think that's a helpful suggestion.  I have no problem with the principle of using a snap Holyrood election further down the road, but if you did it so soon after the election we've only just had, many voters would be furious at what they would see as self-indulgent game-playing, and pro-independence parties would be punished.  The beauty of using the Westminster election is that everyone would know it would be taking place anyway.  The other advantages are:

* If Reform UK appear to be on the brink of taking power UK-wide, the crisis would be imminent and voters might well be highly receptive to the message that voting for independence is the "last chance" to stop Farage.

* In a Westminster election, it's feasible to run on an independence-only or independence-dominant platform.  In any Holyrood election, a devolved government is being elected and the SNP would be seen as irresponsible or frivolous if they did not set out their stall for what they would do with devolved power.

* There are still plenty of sceptics about the principle of a de facto referendum, and if it's going to happen in the real world we need to build a consensus for it.  That consensus is much more likely to emerge if we focus on the Westminster 2029 option, given that the mainstream and SNP-allied organisation Believe in Scotland have already proposed it.  The more outlandish proposals like MacNeil's just make the whole idea seem unserious.  Stick to the credible plan and let's actually make it happen this time.

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