Atlas' own poll yesterday found that only 8% of people would consider voting for them, so if the "Stirling devisor" is applied, that would imply they are on course to take just 0.04% of the list vote. I personally think that's a bit of an underestimate, simply because Tommy Sheridan does still have some residual support in Glasgow - you could imagine him getting around 1-2% of the vote there, while in the other regions Atlas may hover around 0.1% or 0.2%, producing a national figure of around 0.3% or 0.4%. That would obviously still leave them light-years short of winning seats.
But it was interesting that they were concerned enough about not registering in the polls at all that they were willing to shell out for a propaganda poll, because it must have cost them around 10% of the relatively modest amount they've crowdfunded for their election fund. (Although there again, as someone pointed out in the comments section of this blog the other day, they must also have "private means" simply to be able to pay for their election deposits, and perhaps that explains why they've been so willing to get into bed with a far-right party.)
Given what we know about the Mafia-like internal politics of these fringe parties, it perhaps isn't a surprise to find that not only has money been spent on a polling astroturfing exercise for Atlas as a whole, but that someone appears to have also paid for a poll to try to put one particular faction of Atlas into the ascendancy. It's not hard to guess who may have commissioned this morning's new poll from OpinoSpa:
Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: Hazel Lyon, the leader of the Alliance to Liberate Scotland, has been a failure because she is unknown to the public and has been unable to boost the party's profile? (OpinoSpa, 25th-27th March 2026)
Agree strongly: 21%
Agree slightly: 37%
TOTAL AGREE: 58%
Disagree slightly: 11%
Disagree strongly 4%
TOTAL DISAGREE: 15%
Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: the former STV weather presenter Lloyd Quinan, who was a member of the Scottish Parliament for four years, would be a better leader of the Alliance to Liberate Scotland than Hazel Lyon because he would get the party more attention?
Agree strongly: 23%
Agree slightly: 45%
TOTAL AGREE: 68%
Disagree slightly: 7%
Disagree strongly 2%
TOTAL DISAGREE: 9%
Hold on to your hat, Hazel: strong gusts are forecast as a Quinan coup attempt comes in from the west.
Sheridan is no longer the force he and others thinks he is. Even his past colleagues all fell out hence we now have so many fringe groups. Can’t even call them pressure groups as they have no influence and no unity from the days of Stop the Poll Tax.
ReplyDeleteThat is the weirdest poll question I have ever seen.
ReplyDeleteLeading questions , what is the point?
You could swap the names and get the same result.
Just wanted to ask if you wanted to do a comment on the long-term trend that shows polls under the known 44.7% for yes stat that has now existed for 12 years are accurate. As has been pointed out to me if the polls show a consistent pattern of now 46% to 48% for yes(within the data then we may be able to construe weakly there is now a majority for yes. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence
ReplyDeleteAhh, you look like an independence supporter on the fringes. Does your poll include Don’t Knows as No voters. Old enough to remember the first Scot referendum ignored by labour
ReplyDeleteEveryone agrees that don't knows are counted as Yes.
DeleteDon't knows have clearly turned their back on the Union. Skier said so and he's a man of science who wouldn't risk his reputation and career by spouting complete nonsense.
There should be no doubt about this at all.
Hazel who ? Alliance for what ? Asks the average voter.
ReplyDeleteApril Fools post.
ReplyDeleteThank God somebody worked it out. I was aiming for subtlety this year but I didn't realise I'd been quite *that* subtle.
Delete