SNP 68
Greens 18
Reform UK 15
Liberal Democrats 10
Labour 10
Conservatives 8
That would be a single-party SNP overall majority, whereas my projection has the SNP six seats short of a majority on 59. I've been saying for months (and I really have been saying this for months) that the Stats for Lefties projection model always seems to be overly optimistic for the SNP, and often produces an overall majority when other models do not. During the debate in the autumn about whether the SNP should adopt the target of an overall majority, I was very concerned that some of the proponents of the idea were using the Stats for Lefties projections to give the impression that a majority was a lot more likely than was really the case.
However, there are two caveats this time around. As I said myself the other night, in the real world the Scot Goes Pop / Find Out Now poll would probably produce about 63 SNP seats (almost a majority but not quite), because most of the 12% of people who said they would vote Green on the constituency ballot will not be able to do so, and a lot of them will actually vote SNP. So if the Stats for Lefties projection is making some sort of common sense adjustment to the constituency numbers to take account of that, it might not be quite so far out.
And secondly, even without any adjustment, the constituency vote shares from the poll are actually better for the SNP than the Find Out Now MRP poll from last month. The MRP poll had the SNP on 34% of the vote and gave them a 16-point lead over the second placed party (Labour). The Scot Goes Pop poll has the SNP on 35% and gives them a 19-point lead over the second-placed party (Reform UK). The MRP poll, once the individual constituency-level projections were totted up, gave the SNP an overall majority - it was surprising that it showed that, but it did. So if you think the projection method that was used in that MRP poll was sound, then yes, the Scot Goes Pop poll probably would point to an SNP overall majority, even before you take into account the issue of the Greens on the constituency ballot.
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If you've been finding the new Scot Goes Pop poll interesting or useful, please check out the new polling fundraiser I've set up.
I prefer to be a bit pessimistic then when the result comes in I might not so disappointed. Or if it's a good result then I'll be doubly pleased.
ReplyDeleteYeah, that projection seemed wildly optimistic. They also had the border constituencies solid yellow for the Scottish Elections and solid blue for WM, which seems incongruous.
ReplyDeleteI think Google is useless as i have been trying to find out which 6 Constituency seats the Toxic Woke Greens are actually standing in as I reckon they will scunner the SNP in those Constituency seats. Thus torpedoing any overall majority for the SNP below the waterline. Thus also letting Yoons in on those seats. The Toxic Greens in my view aren't fans of Scots Indy. They have also spent the last 5 years doing their best to damage the Indy cause again in my view. The Stats for Lefties are way too optimistic about SNP prospects.
ReplyDeleteDon't be ridiculous. "scottish greens candidates" led me to greens.scot/candidates, first link. All six constituencies are there.
DeleteIf you say so, Fergus.
Delete"Toxic woke Greens". Please explain, right wing extremist.
ReplyDeleteWhat is surely meant is that the utterly sensible and level headed Scottish Green Party is toxic to the damaging woke concept, itself a US import, and hence the Greens are providing an invaluable service to us all in Scotland in insulating us from the dangers of actually trying to carry out wacky-but-fun-sounding public policy.
DeleteThank you to the Scottish Greens. We see you, and appreciate you.
It's the other side of 'right wing extremist'. They are both of the same coin.
DeleteTrans rights can, not always, be extreme. See men in women's sports
DeleteAbolishing prisons
Free buses for everyone!
No oil needed
These are extreme positions.
Spot the Sovereignity support !
DeleteVote for the Continuing Extremists!
Deletehttps://archive.ph/GBDsd
The SNP on its own are not getting a majority. They will get between 59-62 seats. SNP policy means there is no mandate to pursue Independence. J S told you this. There will be a majority, possibly as much as 6 or seven, of Indy supporting seats, but that is not enough. BBC and MSM already have their headlines written.
ReplyDeleteThere's a big push by "lefties" for people to vote Green on the list, with the English Polanski being treated as a Scottish hero for some odd reason, so it wouldn't surprise me at all if there was a tendency for some to exaggerate the vote for the SNP and the number of constituency votes to try to fool people into voting Green on the list.
ReplyDeleteProblem is that without an overall majority for the SNP we could be stick with another disastrous and Scottish taxpayer money-wasting BHA and kiss bye bye to any chance of Independence for yet another 5 years of their pie in the sky nonsense.
Abstain, spoil the ballot if you want, but if you do vote, vote SNP 1 and 2.
Complete nonsense. Vote SNP constituency and look at the prospects of Indy parties on the list in your area and vote accordingly. You are either going to vote SNP or Green. The idiotic policy introduced by SNP beggars belief. The BBC and MSM already have their headlines written for the day after the election.That’s down to SNP. They are not the Indy movement. The day they humbly accept that and offer to cooperate is the day we move forward.
DeleteThank you Lorna Slater!
DeleteAnon at 7:47 - so what are the prospects of Indy parties in your region, pray tell?
DeleteDo you know which parties will win which constituencies?
Do you know how many votes each party will get on the list?
Do you know which Indy party will be in pole position for winning that last list seat?
Of course not.
Anon at 10.31. The exact same questions apply to you, stupid as they are. And your snide tone says so much about you. What I do know is that SNP will take my constituency seat barring some absolute catastrophy, and Greens are popular in my area, so their prospects on the list are very good. Hence that is exactly the result I anticipate, based on my actual experience of getting that result in previous Holyrood elections.
DeleteBoth votes SNP, don't allow others to manipulate where your vote goes, tactical voting is a tactical con by those who don't want the SNP to win
DeleteSo a minority of unionists tell Scotland what they can or cannot do?
ReplyDeleteLeading up to the UK 2015 GE many had the SNP tipped to win every seat in Scotland. On election night, I was watching the STV coverage, the exit poll came out and had the SNP on 56 seats, just 3 sort of every seat. Jackie Baillie tried to portray this as a bad result for the SNP as according to the exit poll the SNP hasn't won every seat. Even poor old Bernard Ponsonby and Jackson CarCrash looked on in astonishment at her comments.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, the point I'm making is this...If the SNP can win almost every seat in one election and still gets labeled as a bad result for them then the SNP falling even 1 short of a majority in a few weeks time will have the likes of Jackie Baillie screaming SNP and independence is dead!!
Scottish politics is all about who controls the narrative and the First Minister could have guaranteed the indy narrative if he had agreed a simple "pro indy majority" would be enough to start the ball running for another indy vote..
Actress Annette Crosbie is the only person to have visited all 50 of the United States.
ReplyDeleteAll 50?
DeleteWhat else is an SNP leader supposed to argue for? The green vote down south is surging in polls and elections, if JS came out with "oh yeah you can vote SNP 1 Green 2 and thats good enough for me" that wouldn't go down well with the SNP membership.
ReplyDeleteAny SNP leader has to argue for the most votes for their party, its not credible for the SNP to say their aim is only minority government.
Sure the wider independence movement might cheer but I think it would cause internal arguments within the party that aren't worth it.
Mark Mcgeoghegan on bluesky was saying the Green vote appears much more variable than random error would suggest, if thats right then thats a spanner in the works for any list seat projection? Probably very useful to SNP planning they aren't expecting many list seats tbh.
"Mark Mcgeoghegan on bluesky"
DeleteWhere's my crucifix?
Honest question here are Labour employing door knockers similar to charity door knockers to do there canvassing. Everytime I see them in my constituency it’s the same group always during the day unlike the other parties who door knock early evening and clearly aren’t paid
ReplyDeleteI guess it's rent-a-chapper?
DeleteEven with an SNP outright majority, london media will argue that it isn't 50% of votes. Even with 50% of voted they'll argue it isn't 50% of people. Even with 50% of people, they'll argue that now is not the time. There will be no indy ref 2. I'm not sayibg that because I wsnr that, but that's the truth. Another route must be found when 50% of voters are voting for indy parties. Until then, scotland won't become independent.
ReplyDeleteBritish politics is and has always been about seats in elections, never percentages. You don’t say Starmer says he’s no mandate on 34% of the vote.
DeleteSwinney could landslide it if he did two things right now. First say that we will go UDI if SNP get a majority and secondly pick a fight with Fuhrer Trump. He doesn't have the baws for either though. Also his English Spook Agency Bosses wont let him.
ReplyDeleteJames! You're an SNP member who isn't a slavish follower of the party line, so I'd be interested in your thoughts.
ReplyDeleteWe know that you oppose Swinney's approach of proclaiming an SNP majority the only way to get a referendum, but your objection has mostly been based on the unlikelihood of that being achieved. But recent polls suggest it's just about possible. So let's assume it is achieved. Do you think that would actually create any significant pressure on Westminster to concede? Or would they be able to dismiss it just as easily as they've always done?
April is shaping up to be a great month, indy polling wise. Latest Survation poll gives Yes a three point lead, which is very encouraging. This, together with the Scot Goes Pop poll by Find Out Now leads me to say 'Forwards to Freedom'!
ReplyDelete