Scot Goes Pop / Find Out Now poll
If another Scottish independence referendum was held tomorrow, with the question 'Should Scotland be an independent country?', how would you vote?
Yes 53% (-)
No 47% (-)
Those numbers, which exclude Don't Knows, are unchanged from the most recent comparable Find Out Now poll, which was commissioned by The National in February. However, on the figures which leave Don't Knows in, there is a small increase in the Yes lead:
Yes 50% (-)
No 44% (-1)
Undecided 6% (+1)
The results have been weighted by age, gender, region and recalled 2024 general election vote - but not, crucially, by 2014 referendum recalled vote, which after this length of time carries with it the risk of false recall. (Find Out Now's methodology is absolutely consistent regardless of client, let me stress - these results would have been exactly the same if the poll had been commissioned by the Daily Express.)
In my view, what is most significant about these results is that they are bang up to date and are taken from fieldwork right in the middle of an election campaign, because we know from past experience that independence support sometimes dips during elections, even when the SNP's own vote holds up. That's probably because unionist parties devote so much of their campaigning to attacks on the subject without the SNP necessarily responding in kind. But on the evidence of this poll, it's not a problem on this occasion.
Across the whole polling industry, there have now been fifteen independence polls in 2026 so far. Nine of them have shown a Yes lead, only four have shown a No lead, and the remaining two were dead heats. No fewer than *six* different polling firms have shown a pro-independence majority at some point this year: Find Out Now, Ipsos, Savanta, Stonehaven, Norstat and More In Common (although I must admit I hadn't previously been aware of the Savanta poll until I checked the list just now - I'll have to look into it).
There is no gender gap in the Find Out Now poll other than the fact that women are slightly more likely to be undecided: they break 49% to 43% for Yes, while among men the Yes lead is 51% to 45%. As ever, there is an enormous gulf between the youngest and oldest respondents, although in this case the best age bracket for Yes is thirtysomethings. 30-39 year olds break 68% to 27% for Yes. The best age group for No is 65-74 year olds, who break 69% to 26% for No. The youngest age group to be pro-No is 55-64 year olds.
Among people who voted for unionist parties in the 2024 UK general election, there is considerable minority support for independence (except among Tory voters who are almost monolithically No). 26% of Labour voters, 21% of Liberal Democrat voters, and 20% of Reform UK voters would back Yes in a new referendum. In a way that's a bad thing, though, because we want all independence supporters to be voting for pro-independence parties - we don't want then cross-voting for unionist parties.
The settled will klaxon is sounding tonight, and I can tell you that KC has already heard it loud and clear. There's plenty more to come from this poll, including the Holyrood numbers, which as I said in the video contain a really quite stunning result in one particular respect - and the more I've checked it and compared it to previous polls, the more extraordinary it looks.
So keep an eye out for more results over the coming days, and in the meantime please check out the new Scot Goes Pop polling fundraiser - if you have a few pounds to spare it would be very much appreciated.
"In a way that's a bad thing, though, because we want all independence supporters to be voting for pro-independence parties - we don't want then cross-voting for unionist parties."
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand if, I mean IF Swinney could somehow make Independence and Scotland's right to decide the absolute top priority, he could get many of those party voters, and the disenchanted YESsers who may abstain or spoil otherwise, to vote SNP.
That could give the SNP up to 50% on both constituency and regional votes, and an unchallengeable overall majority.
If only Carlsberg or Tennents made Swinneys.
15 days to go John boy ... go for it.
That's exactly what Swinney has already done what exactly is it that you expect?
DeleteHe'd have to invent something else to be outraged about.
DeleteI see tweedledum and tweedledumber are doing their usual ineffective bit for the Union. Thank you Dougie and Malky!
Delete"As ever, there is an enormous gulf between the youngest and oldest respondents, although in this case the best age bracket for Yes is thirtysomethings."
ReplyDeleteThat is tae sae, that fowk that were in oor 20s at the time o the indyref - it wis a major formative process for monie in ma ain cohort (which, wi the Iraq War and the eftermath o 2008 as pairt o the formation o oor political experience o life, isna surprisin). This raises the questions:
(a) is the issue less salient for fowk in their 20s *noo* (this wadna be surprisin, the campaign haesna been a pairt o their identity as it wis for fowk ten year syne)?
(b) will we see anither strang indy cohort amang the bairns o the fowk that were in their 20s in 2014? I think o ma brither and his wife, baith becam strangly pro-indy durin indyref, less engaged noo but aye pairt o the "common sense" o their wurldviews. Their auldest is noo in his early teens, he's grown up in braidly nationalist hame in a wey that is common for his peers and wisna common ava afore his generation.
I wouldn't read anything into the fact that 30-39 year olds are slightly more pro-indy than 16-29 year olds - the difference between the two groups is minor and may just be sampling quirk.
DeleteYesindyref2: what many Yessers fail to appreciate is that although polling now consistently shows small Yes majorities, the support is wide and not deep. When pressed on priorities, it’s only about 15% of the electorate who list independence as a priority, much less than the expected list of cost of living, NHS, etc.
ReplyDeleteMessaging to the electorate has to be couched in that context, which is why it’s not shouting independence constantly: people have to be educated that it takes independence to achieve progress on those other things.
If only diehard Yessers in their own bubbles were cognisant of that fact that majority Yes support is still shallow and fragile, and much persuasion has to be done, they wouldn’t be looking for traitors in the SNP at every turn.
The young age groups are the converse of oldest age groups. 70/30 v 30/70 ( in the round). And most polls have show this since the Referendum. So is the shift to a slight yes from 45% 12 years ago, simply the demographic movement in time, with very few people who voted 12 years actually changing their positions. That would be my anecdotal view- I know very few people - of either view- who have actually changed position. At one time, Brexit was viewed as a potential game changer but in reality have No, pro EU voters not just stayed No ? This analysis is positive albeit a really long drawn out strategy. The real worry would be if yes when young people become no when they reach older age; has anyone done any research to assess this?
ReplyDeleteThere's one very obvious sense in which people are bound to change as they get older: they become more worried about pensions.
DeleteNobody who's under 30 now will see a state pension
DeleteAnd the NO brigade know this all too well and will again lie through their teeth about it. The BBC and MSM will collude with them in their lies. How can that be countered?
ReplyDeleteGood poll, Indy Ref 2 is coming!
ReplyDelete13:45, Wednesday, I see The Greens (on Mastodon) quoting these independence results.
ReplyDeleteThe existing older cohorts were mostly brought up under direct WM Control.
ReplyDeleteFor them, the only real government sits in London.
The younger age groups are totally different and see Holyrood as their parliament, with WM only a distant secondary institution.
I doubt that will change as they get older and nor do I think their pro-indy views will alter that much either.
Hopefully Indy Ref 2 happens soon!
ReplyDeleteSwinney still needs to grow an Indy Pair of Baws
ReplyDeleteThat older cohort, the World was very different for the best part of their lives. I'm being simplistic and some of this only applies to the very oldest of them, but, they became adults when there was stability, they had the Queen, there were National Industries (British Rail, The Post Office, British Steel) and world class motor companies, there were jobs for life and one income could raise a family, GB had clout in the world, they had National Service, they had simpler media that all had the same post WWII story to tell and Clydeside built those great Cunard liners, and that old line about "what has always been will always be" was more familiar. The "good old days" were British for their parents and/or themselves - and the worth of Britishness wasn't in question.
ReplyDeleteYounger generations never experienced much of that and might not believe one income was ever enough, for instance.
Could go on, probably shouldn't.