FON have produced 16 surveys on the constitutional question since they started polling on the matter. They are as follows:
23–26 Mar 2021 52% 1–8 Dec 2022 54% 11–18 Jan 2023 54% 1–9 Mar 2023 52% 7–12 June 2023 52% 13–20 Jun 2023 52% 5-11 Sep 2023 52% 11-24 Jan 2024 52% 16-23 Oct 2024 52% 17-24 Dec 2024 52% 15-20 Jan 2025 52% 7-11 Apr 2025 56% 15–21 Sep 2025 52% 1-8 Oct 2025 55% 11-19 Dec 2025 53% 13-19 Feb 2026 53%
They have always shown a lead for Yes and, with one or two blips, have been very, very stable. The average is 53%, the same as the last two polls published.
In terms of FON the will of the people has been settled for 5 years.
That's not correct, there was one poll two or three years ago which was misreported as showing a Yes lead but turned out to be a tie or a small No lead. So it's all but one Find Out Now poll with a Yes lead.
It does indeed show a marginal No majority - Yes=43.6%, No=44.0%.
That's a (rounded) 50/50 tie when don't knows and refusals are excluded. Wikipedia entry showed it as being 49%/46% in favour of Yes with 5% don't knows/refusals.
Wikipedia now updated to reflect the correct poll results.
A rash of polls, like buses, you wait for a bus and they all come at once. Labour's gimmick of last week seems to have been a damp squib. More chance of the SNP support to grow if the 53% Yes is correct.
Also, John Swinney is now saying independence is within reach. Is that closer than 'soon'?
ReplyDeletehow soon is now
Delete- see I've already waited too long ... and all my hope is gone
closer than yesterday
DeleteFON have produced 16 surveys on the constitutional question since they started polling on the matter. They are as follows:
ReplyDelete23–26 Mar 2021 52%
1–8 Dec 2022 54%
11–18 Jan 2023 54%
1–9 Mar 2023 52%
7–12 June 2023 52%
13–20 Jun 2023 52%
5-11 Sep 2023 52%
11-24 Jan 2024 52%
16-23 Oct 2024 52%
17-24 Dec 2024 52%
15-20 Jan 2025 52%
7-11 Apr 2025 56%
15–21 Sep 2025 52%
1-8 Oct 2025 55%
11-19 Dec 2025 53%
13-19 Feb 2026 53%
They have always shown a lead for Yes and, with one or two blips, have been very, very stable. The average is 53%, the same as the last two polls published.
In terms of FON the will of the people has been settled for 5 years.
"They have always shown a lead for Yes"
DeleteThat's not correct, there was one poll two or three years ago which was misreported as showing a Yes lead but turned out to be a tie or a small No lead. So it's all but one Find Out Now poll with a Yes lead.
Can you provide the details of the one poll please?
DeleteIt'll be in the archives of this blog if you want to look. It was a poll commissioned by Independent Voices, and it wasn't particularly recent.
DeleteI have dug out the FindOutNow/Independent Voices opinion survey from September 2023 (field work 5-11 Sep 2023):
Deletehttps://audience.findoutnow.co.uk/files/reports/IndyRef092023/Find%20Out%20Now%20Survey%20Results%20-%209702%20-%20Q1%20(without%202014%20vote,%20non-turnout-adjusted).pdf
It does indeed show a marginal No majority - Yes=43.6%, No=44.0%.
That's a (rounded) 50/50 tie when don't knows and refusals are excluded. Wikipedia entry showed it as being 49%/46% in favour of Yes with 5% don't knows/refusals.
Wikipedia now updated to reflect the correct poll results.
A rash of polls, like buses, you wait for a bus and they all come at once. Labour's gimmick of last week seems to have been a damp squib. More chance of the SNP support to grow if the 53% Yes is correct.
ReplyDelete