I am, as you know, a terrible slave to my responsibilities, and I was perfectly prepared to sacrifice myself for Scot Goes Pop readers by staying up half the night for a third night in a row to make another video, this time about the new Survation poll that is on the front page of the Herald. However, I've looked in all the standard places and for the life of me I can't see any sign of the numbers, so all I know is what is actually on the front page itself, which is that the SNP are projected to be on "around" 55 seats and that Reform UK are projected to be in second place on 22 seats. The write-up absurdly suggests this has thrown John Swinney's independence strategy into "chaos" - whereas in fact polls before the strategy was unveiled showed the SNP falling short of an overall majority and polls after the strategy was unveiled are undramatically continuing to show much the same thing. If there's a shock horror front page exclusive to be had there, it's that the laws of arithmetic don't conveniently bend to the will of any politician, but I think we all knew that already.
What I'm going be more interested in is whether the projection from the poll has the Greens on 10 seats or more, because that will make the difference as to whether or not the projection is of a pro-independence majority, albeit a multi-party one rather than a single-party one. But that probably won't become clear until around 4am, which I think is when the Herald website usually updates for the new day's headlines. I'll try to make a video about the poll at some point but it may be another 24 hours before I get the chance.
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It's a blessing in disguise. Why? If the SNP are only projected to get 55 seats, then it makes it even more important to vote SNP on the list. Perhaps it will think the list gamers think again.
ReplyDeleteYir2 if you do what you suggest then there is the danger of no single party independence majority but also no multi party independence majority as well. Swinney’s strategy, if you can call it that, could turn out to be an absolute disaster for independence.
DeleteThere's no list gaming going on. The SNP are almost totally reliant on constituency seats for their self imposed majority target.
DeleteThey will get zero,1 or possibly 2 list MSPs and that is entirely reliant on unpredictable local factors. Whether their overall list vote is 25% or 45% makes next to no difference.
Hi Stew
DeleteThe less constituency seats the SNP get, the lower the divisor for the list and the higher the chance of getting one or two list seats. So with 55 seats the average divisor is less than 7 per region for a divisor of 8, and a very good chance of list seats in each region if the list vote is high enough.
DeleteIn 2011 the SNP got 53 constituency seats with 45.4%, but 16 list seats with 44.0% for an overall majority with 69 seats.
Theirs is no chance of more than 1 or 2 list seats. Nothing, absolutely nothing, indicates otherwise. We all know it. SNP Constituency. Green List, if they have a chance, SNP otherwise. It’s actually academic because Swinney, either through utter stupidity or contentment with the status quo has already ensured Indy is relegated to a side issue for the foreseeable future.
DeleteIf Swinnneys plan is successful SNP might get 58-62 Constituency seats and no List seats. What a plan.
Delete"The less constituency seats the SNP get, the lower the divisor for the list and the higher the chance of getting one or two list seats. So with 55 seats the average divisor is less than 7 per region for a divisor of 8, and a very good chance of list seats in each region if the list vote is high enough.
DeleteIn 2011 the SNP got 53 constituency seats with 45.4%, but 16 list seats with 44.0% for an overall majority with 69 seats."
All true.
There was a sweet spot in 2011 between number of getting just enough (i.e. not too many) constituency seats and having a high list vote share.
But it wasn't expected. And it wasn't strategised for. It was a fluke. And you can't engineer a fluke.
Swinney's approach, therefore, is not a plan.
It is a prayer.
No one can predict.
Delete"It was a fluke"
DeleteThis current poll shows SNP at 34% on the constituency, 29% on the list. And still they're predicted to get 55 seats. On EP Swingometer that's 59.
2011 was constituency 45.4%, list 44.0%. On EP Swingometer, adjusting the above poll, the SNP get 67 - an overall majority.
Give it even more wellie, say the 2015 GE levels for SNP, 50% on both Con and List and you get SNP 76 seats = 67 constituency and 9 seats on the list. A huge SNP majority.
It all depends on the SNP giving voters enough incentive to turn out next May, and vote for them with both votes.
Long time since they've done that.
Are you able to predict what divisor will be applied to the SNP list vote in the polling prediction?
ReplyDeleteOpinium, Westminster voting intention, field work 22 - 24 Oct.
ReplyDeleteUK headline; RefUK 10% lead, no change, Lab on 20%, an all time low for Starmer from Labour friendly Opinium.
Scottish sub-sample (121)
Con 13%, Lab 17%, LibDem 8%, SNP 38%, RefUK 17%, Green 4%
Farage reminds me of George Clooney, a camera-hogging prick. I wouldn't give him the time of day. Either of them. And don't let either of them near a bloody microphone. It'll be like a massacre or else a full-blown "There's nobody but me and nobody like me." They sicken me. They make me want to puke my guts up.
DeleteBut last year Sarwar said he was going to be FM. His annoying pop up adverts on YouTube seem to have stopped.
ReplyDeleteSarwar AND Labour UK are still heavily punting that Sarwar will be FM in 2026. I suspect no matter the result, that all of the Westminster affiliated Holyrood parties will vote for Starmer as FM, including new Reform UK bods. Nobody is putting pressure on Alba to win enough seats to make up an indy majority - unless of course Scotland United (or whatever they are called) are going to bring Alba in to make up a complete umbrella indy party I suppose - and Your Party are saying they will get independence so presumably they are included as well?
DeleteStarmer as F M? Do you mean Sarwar? Your post is nonsensical. Alba are done. Your Party will be too busy infighting to effectively campaign. Labour are at low ebb for as long as Starmer is in charge. Tragically SNP either have a death wish or are happy with devolved status. A hung parliament is a certainty. The only variable is which parties will compromise to govern.
DeleteDid Alba hold a conference this weekend where they and their invited 'kindred spirits' came up with a surefire strategy to win Alba a load of seats at Holyrood 2026? Was Zara Sultana a guest? I see there's an article where she says Your Party are going to be the party to get Scottish independence!!!! Everything else she says seems to just be a repeat of the anti-SNP yes movement articles so presumably she is kept well in the yes movement loop. Prediction of Reform UK getting 22 Holyrood seats a total bummer but they're picking up voters all over the place, particularly among the tradies, taxi drivers and public service bods.
ReplyDeleteThey met in the toilets at a secret location. Took seven hours to decide which toilet to use, and so no time for business. They will get about 1% of votes on both Constituency and List and no seats whatsoever.
DeleteThis agenda based on a majority of elected MSPs is beyond daft. Base the strategy on what Ireland has the "constitutional right" to--a border poll based on an interpretation of polling evidence. And this will be pushed by the new President of Ireland.
ReplyDeleteThe population of Scotland is much more likely to show a majority in favour of independence in opinion polling, than favouring a party of government, mired as all governments are with daily disappointments, and with the relentless negativity in a highly partisan, Anglo-British media.
Precisely. The best chance for Yes involves decoupling the constitutional question from party politics.
DeleteThe only chance for the SNP is to protect it's monopoly on the Yes movement.
There is no mechanism for doing this.
DeleteO/T but another of the recognisable names in Alba has just quit. Why are they bothering? The hatred must be so strong to keep them going, even though A S is dead and N S is out of the picture. Polling at 1%. Where are the funds coming from?
ReplyDeleteEvery all round the UK sympatico to ensuring the SNP get a good kicking/justice for Salmond supporters?
DeleteYou shouldn’t be drinking during the day. Put the bottle down and sober up, you silly billy.
DeleteSo Hugh Kerr has dumped ALBA and joined the Corbyn unionist crew. His 8th political party. Still loyalty is always something to be admired.
ReplyDelete🎶🎶🎶Hearts, Hearts, glorious Hearts🎶🎶🎶
ReplyDeleteUp the Jambos. Great day.
Deletehistory repeats, first as tragedy then as farce
Deletemadame petulengro is looking into her crystal ball ... it's coming through ...
1986
Albert Kidd
- does that mean anything to you?
form is temporary, class is eternal
the biggest threat to celtic is their own board; they looked at the shambles of sevco and said "we don't need to spend anything"
“Class is eternal “
DeleteWhat class would that be?
So you beat Celtic and are out of European football?……Great day indeed!!?
ReplyDelete