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Okey-doke. IPPR Scotland were one of my interesting indy tipping point indicators over the last few years, they commissioned the recent poll by Diffley Partnership, and here's a recent article from them yesterday, with a downloadable report.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.ippr.org/articles/great-expectations
And right on cue, you have Swinney due to make a speech to them today:
https://archive.is/THKED
"Independence will 'protect Scotland from Reform-led Westminster'"
I can't for the life of me think why people would call Swinney a traitor or even a devolutionist. He's proactive with another indy tipping point, the STUC. These bodies have influence.
Because of what he actually *does*. Like raising the bar to an SNP overall majority before he even lifts a finger for seeking Scottish independence. You know, the thing he's been elected to do for decades already, and will be again, even as he falls short of his own ludicrous and self-defeating threshold.
DeleteIt's not hard to spot the problem, YI2.
Mmmm, a quick look elsewhere shows that at least some previous NO voters are falling out with each other over this, as differences surface and priorities change. Job done already. Interesting.
DeleteJ S has set a bar for Indy progresss that is virtually impossible to achieve. That is not a moot point. It is a fact. Why did he do that? It is now a precedent that cannot be abandoned without provoking a hugely damaging unionist MSM backlash. It makes “once in a generation” benign in comparison. No-one has provided a credible explanation for his strategy. We are not so much up a shit creek, more like rapidly approaching Corryvreckan in all its might. In the absence of an explanation his strategy does reek of betrayal, although I find it counterproductive using such terminology. We appear to be truly fecked for the foreseeable future.
DeleteWell, as SGP says in his article in the National:
Delete"If this pattern persists, there will come a point where even Unionist commentators will start to notice and acknowledge that something has fundamentally changed, as they did during the extraordinary period between the summer of 2020 and early 2021 when every single poll had Yes in the lead. That could mean the SNP will be fighting their "Scotland must have the right to decide" campaign next spring within a much more favourable context than had been anticipated."
and other commentators have noted that there is a greater chance (some say much greater) of an overall SNP majority.
And hopefully Swinney is just getting started.
Commentators can say what they want. There is no evidence to support SNP gaining a majority of seats, quite the contrary in fact.
Delete27th Oct in the National:
Delete"A Find Out Now poll, conducted on behalf of the Alba Party which was released on Friday, showed that SNP has gained a significant lead with support growing for other pro-independence parties.
Stats for Lefties analysis has put the SNP on 66 seats if the Holyrood elections were held today, with the Scottish Greens picking up a further eight more seats, with a predicted return of 15 MSPs."
66 seats for the SNP against 63 seats for other parties is an overall majority for the SNP. No, I've never heard of "stats for lefties" either. Nor have I checked the analysis.
I dealt with that very point at length in the video the other day, although you won't know that because you said yesterday you don't bother to watch the videos.
DeleteEncouraging to see the pro indy vote share soaring to 50% in this poll.
ReplyDeleteHear hear.
DeleteIsrael's idea of a ceasefire is that they don't kill as many Arabs as they would like to.
ReplyDelete“It’s worse than that Jim*.”, as Bones McCoy is purported to have regularly told Captain Kirk.
ReplyDeleteYou don’t have to use these poll numbers to extinguish Labour entirely in Scotland. If you take recent averages to get an approximation (SNP 37%, Lab 17%, Con 10%, RefUK 15%, LibDem 15%), and use the Electoral Calculus algorithm, Labour still get wiped out.
Seats: SNP 49, LibDem 7, Con 1.
* worse for Labour, magnificent for the rest of us.
One of those LibDem seats is what was Strathkelvin & Bearsden a couple of iterations ago. The LibDems have negligible local pavement pounders & doorbell pushers. When the seat was occupied by then Leader, Jo Swinson, we’d get a new LibDem pamphlet every other day, all delivered by commercial courier, for weeks on end in the run up to an election. Swinson drove a coach & horses through the rules regulating election spending, and the authorities never issued a peep. Guess if you’re a safe pair of hands for the Permanent State, the rules don’t apply to you.
DeleteRemember those great days when you'd switch on the radio or TV with the excited anticipation of wondering which accent Jo Swinson would be showcasing that. My favourite was the melange of Afrikaaner and busy Cotswolds mum.
DeleteIt’s annoying the Reform figure is always covered by the YouTube play symbol in your links/thumbnails (can’t watch the actual video as YT is blocked at my work)
ReplyDeleteNoticed the bbc politics programme mentioned the Plaid Cymru win but no representative from that party. Then we had Douglas Alexander on talking about his fiefdom but not SNP to challenge the labour lies. Job done for the state broadcaster.
ReplyDeleteI see Stewie has once again ridden to the defence of Racist Reformnon his site.
ReplyDeleteWhat Pochin said was not at all racist, Nigel and his mob are just misunderstood and reasonable and Reform would be even stronger in an Independent Scotland!
Campbell is a genuine f#cking moron!!!
He really is.
DeleteStew is a bad man
DeleteCampbell is not only a pro-genocide piece of dung but also now a rabid racist right wing nutter, to boot.
DeleteAnyone who still supports him and his views is of absolutely no use to our yes movement and should be totally shunned.
Campbell is not only a pro-genocide piece of dung but also now a rabid racist right wing nutter, to boot.
DeleteAnyone who still supports him and his views is of absolutely no use to our yes movement and should be totally shunned.
3.56 Our yes movement? You pick and choose who can aspire to live in an independent Scotland, do you?
DeleteSanctimonious twunt.
Anon at 7.30. Where does it say what you claim? Disingenuous Fanny. Away back to WOS and your genocidal mates. We certainly don’t want you.
DeleteHe lives in engerlund so he is of no consequence
DeleteIf Anas Sarwar blew his nose or stuck his finger up his nether parts the British media would report it
ReplyDeleteHas it never occurred to these anti SNP folk who keep prattling on about the SNP never said something about this that or the other in reply to garbage talked by the British that the British media just don't report whatever the SNP say even if or when they do reply to Sarwar blowing his nose with his finger up his bits