I didn't get around to giving you the party political voting intentions numbers from the Ipsos poll yesterday, so here they are...
Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:
SNP 34%
Labour 23%
Reform UK 14%
Conservatives 10%
Liberal Democrats 9%
Greens 9%
Alba 1%
Scottish Parliament list ballot:
SNP 26%
Labour 22%
Reform UK 16%
Greens 15%
Conservatives 10%
Liberal Democrats 8%
Alba 2%
Scottish voting intentions for next UK general election:
SNP 31%
Labour 22%
Reform UK 16%
Conservatives 10%
Greens 10%
Liberal Democrats 9%
Alba 1%
If the Alba vote shares are accurate, and I don't particularly doubt that they are likely to be reasonably accurate, Alba have made no progress at all since 2021 when they were light-years short of winning any seats. One of the several dishonest points in Jim McEleny's email to party members after resigning as convener of Alba's Inverclyde branch was that he tried to make out that things had fallen apart since the good old days when his son/brother (I think it's son but I'd better cover all the options) was General Secretary - ie. that opinion polls showed the party on course for seats back then but no longer do. In fact there has been no change in the polls at all - Alba have always been on course for zero seats and they remain on course for zero seats. To be blunt, Alba members were cynically deceived by Chris McEleny with his ridiculous "poll after poll" catchphrase - it was a downright lie that Alba were ever on course for seats, and yet it was obvious from social media that many Alba members were successfully duped.
This is why independence supporters must ignore the siren voices, such as the controversial "Stew" blogger, which are trying to convince them to throw their list votes away on fringe parties that cannot in the real world win any list seats. Given how evenly spread their vote is, Alba would need to at least double their support to even have an outside chance of nicking a seat somewhere. If anyone were to say "oh of course the SNP can achieve objective X or Y, all they need to do is double their vote", Stew would be the first to mock the naivety and the dishonesty of that position - so why it should supposedly be any different with Alba or with the wilder fringe elements represented by Liberate Scotland is a complete mystery. There are only two pro-independence parties capable of winning list seats, namely the SNP and the Greens, and frankly the task facing anyone who is serious about electing a pro-indy majority at Holyrood next year is to choose between those two parties. Voting for anyone else increases the chances of a unionist majority without a shadow of doubt.
Incidentally, I heard an extraordinary story last week about a senior figure within Alba, possibly even one 'of Salmond blood', trying to get the police involved in her vendetta against a female NEC colleague who recently left the party. The story was so garbled that it was hard to fully make sense of, but there's a real whiff of 'the last days in the bunker' about Alba at the moment. NEC or other committee members who are the subject of the leadership's paranoid suspicions about "treachery" should probably just count themselves lucky if they escape the firing squad.
Stew was gloating yesterday about John Swinney's net approval rating of -17. It's true that's unusually low by the standards of other recent polls, but nevertheless it still leaves Mr Swinney with slightly better ratings than Mr Sarwar. There was speculation at the Holyrood Sources event last week that Labour's position might improve once voters turn their attention away from Westminster and towards Holyrood, just as there was a big swing towards the SNP in 2011 once voters actually remembered it was a Holyrood election. But that swing in 2011 was driven by two factors - a) the fact that Alex Salmond was regarded as a far more credible leader than Iain Gray, and b) the fact that the SNP were more trusted than Labour to stand up for Scotland. Well, in the new Ipsos poll, John Swinney is slightly more popular than Anas Sarwar, and the SNP are more trusted than Labour to stand up for Scottish interests, by a margin of 37% to 12%. If the hypothetical Labour fightback is going to happen, what exactly will it be built on?
There is no meaningful Labour recovery, let alone fight back, coming any time soon.
ReplyDeleteSorry this is off-topic straight away.
ReplyDelete"Former SNP chief Peter Murrell granted legal aid in embezzlement case"
Whatever anyone might think this is very sad that he is indeed eligible. Tests for legal aid are very stringent as lots more government money is given for prosecution than defence.
I exchanged a couple of emails when he apologised for delays. I said 100,000 new members was a bit daunting. He said thanks.
From the Herald 7 months ago:
Delete“Someone on one of the main benefits such as universal credit would automatically qualify for legal aid. But if someone is working and has a net income (after paying bills such as rent or mortgage, council tax and any loans) over around £220 to £230 a week then they wouldn’t qualify.
The legal aid board is slightly flexible [when it comes to savings] but in general terms if someone has more than around £1200 in the bank, the person won’t qualify.”
Slightly higher if High Court which needs an advocate.
Is it possible that, as this is an embezzlement case, he isn't allowed to access his accounts and has therefore been given access to legal aid?
DeleteWhy is Nicola not giving her husband a sub from her book proceeds.
DeletePeter Murrell. Now that's what you call a state sponger. I'm surprised he hisnae been on the phone asking Swinney if the SNP can help him out with a few bob. After all they still have some of the money (£100k) he strangely loaned the SNP. Or got any spare SNP lawyers not doing anything. A man without any shame married to a woman cut from the same cloth.
DeleteSurely the WGD mob would have had a whip round for Murrell. Skier is very generous with his £20 donations.
DeleteAre you still sleeping with Stew IFS?
DeleteThere is a good deal of potential political capital for the SNP to exploit over coming weeks and months, not least concerning Labour's actions to save the oil refinery at Immingham in Lincolnshire. After the closure of Grangemouth this should be an open goal for the SNP.
ReplyDeleteIt's a massive open goal and like all the others the SNP have been presented with they won't even take a shot. Under Swinney particularly, the SNP are timid beyond belief.
DeleteAfter the shambles over the welfare Legislation in Westminster yesterday J D should be absolutely shredding Sarwar tomorrow in Holyrood, naming all the Labour MP’s that voted for the cuts, and hammering home why it would be different with Independence. Will he? No. We are stalled, going nowhere.
ReplyDeleteIpsos seems to have Reform lower than other companies
ReplyDeleteBye bye Alba party, off you “pop”. You won’t be missed.
ReplyDeleteYou're right. It's best to ignore the unionists masquerading as independence supporters and urging voters to vote for fringe parties who can only split the pro-independence vote. The same goes for the unionists pretending to be disillusioned with the SNP not being pro-independence enough. These voices are 10 a penny, and by this stage easy to see through.
ReplyDeleteIf they are ten a penny, that must mean there's a helluva lot of those voices. Maybe you should try listening to them for a change.
DeleteOh dear Lorelei, hoist by your own petard. Silly billy.
DeleteMcStrootle. We see right through you unionist KC.
Delete1% on constituency ballot:and 2% on list, who are these ongoing Alba party supporters? Their votes are wasted and Unionists are laughing at them, glad of their stupidity.
ReplyDeleteIpsos rated party leaders, Anas Sarwar isn't a party leader
ReplyDeleteCan we make any prediction about whether Reform UK would win constituency seats at Holyrood on those figures? Because if not they're going to gobble up quite a few list seats.
ReplyDeleteAll the real true believers in independence will vote for Reform to stop the SNP not trying to get independence apparently
DeleteIt kinda blows your mind the way these people think they think after Stew has told them not to think to make Bath great again
Gaza: Doctors Under Attack - C4 tonight - a harrowing expose of the war crimes that Westminster helps to facilitate. Disgraceful scenes of barbarism and lies by the Israeli government and its murderous IDF.
ReplyDelete