Monday, July 28, 2025
I say this with tremendous regret...but John Swinney's new roadmap for independence is a false prospectus, it's a dead end, and it will need to be completely changed if independence is ever to be achieved
Today's YouTube commentary is my reaction to John Swinney's unexpected declaration that an independence referendum can only happen if the SNP win a single-party overall majority in the Scottish Parliament - something which is not only unachievable, but drives a coach and horses through the principle of democratic self-determination that we are all supposed to believe in. You can listen via the embedded player below, or via the direct YouTube link, or on Soundcloud.
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Frankly, a scarcely believable announcement by JS today. What on earth is the thinking behind it? He appears to have just written off independence until at least the 2030s. I can feel a lot of resentment and anger coming over this but at the moment I'm just in shock.
ReplyDeleteWhy are you in shock. Nicola took everyone for a ride,Swinney is just carrying on the same way. I know it,s hard to take betrayal. strugeon really done one over on indy. she made,a fortune out of it so the little people don,t matter.
DeleteIf a majority of Scots vote for independence parties that is it from my position.
ReplyDeleteJust listened to this enjoyable talk on YouTube and subscribed to your channel. Bearing in mind that Alba, ISP etc have no chance of winning any seats at the next SP and the Greens only won 8 last time including Alison Johnstone who became Presiding Officer. I do wonder if they will even get that many next year. In most parts of Glasgow and its suburbs they are about as popular as toothache . They were also deeply embroiled in GRA legislation and the Trans issue in general. Their spitting the dummy after the Bute House Agreement ended has made them very unpopular with Snp voters too
ReplyDeleteIt’s demonstration, if it was needed, that he doesn’t care about indepdence at all, only about maximising the seats of the SNP for his own career.
ReplyDeleteVery sound analysis. It feels like independence is off the table until we get a new cohort of energised, motivated, determined people who 100% want it (and turf this lot out). There are so many areas where we could be pointing out the benefits of independence but dont; how on earth do we build support doing that.
ReplyDeleteI agree with what you said James. It's very sad but it was predictable. Swinney was and is a devolutionist. He will NOT be getting my vote for this so obvious self interested con.
ReplyDeleteI repeat what I have been saying for many years. A new independence minded SNP leadership is required that will put its full weight behind Scottish independence and a de facto referendum. The sec 30 gold standard punted by Sturgeon/Swinney/Blackford etc was always snake oil as is the democratic deficit and Westminster will bend to Scottish democracy. It is all snake oil punted to the gullible.
Sturgeon's gang have done a real number on Scottish independence. They have been bad for the SNP as well.
A reminder that Cameron got his EU referendum with a 37% vote share. Scotland is England's possession. You don't find the right solution if you don't understand the problem.
Now if Swinney had a signed agreement with Starmer that if the SNP get a majority of MSPs in 2026 Starmer will grant a sec 30 referendum as per 2014 then perhaps it would be worth going for it. But Swinney has no such thing.
DeleteSwinney has said you must climb Everest to get the slim to no chance of a referendum. Is Swinney the leader that can take you up Everest - laughable to even think that.
I hope you're prepared to come to the SNP conference to argue your case, James.
ReplyDeleteOf course I am. Registration isn't automatic, but I'll certainly ask if I can go.
DeleteClearly the SNP are not interested in Scottish independence, otherwise they would not be promoting any barriers.
ReplyDelete.... aye James, "if" .... as in if yer Aunty had baws she would be yer Uncle ... let this be the "wake up and smell the coffee" moment for the majority of SNP members (I was one for 50 years) who TRULY believe in INDEPENDENCE and cast out this carlatin and his cast of "tomb tabards" ... a real leader to inspire what we KNOW is fact, that we have (at least) 50% support for our National Restoration as a Sovereign Country .... my Vote is with Ms.Cherry K.C. ... even when the SNP Nosa Costa went after her, she stood by her principals and fought on ... out of the same mould as Salmond.
ReplyDeleteWell put.
DeleteThe trouble with Cherry, mind, is that she's not standing for Holyrood so can't be elected First Minister to act on all of this.
And she's as popular as the Wicked Witch among a certain chunk of the party's younger membership, which wouldn't help either. You know the type: those *outraged* Kate Forbes is even allowed to speak in public, let alone deputy FM.
It's a divided party, all right.
It's a pity that the electorate of Edinburgh Central disagree with you about Cherry.
DeleteLooking at this in reverse, from the result backwards, IF the SNP achieve an overall majority after campaigning just about completely on the basis of Independence in 2026, which I think they will have to or face annihilation, it will indeed be like 2011, and make it nearly impossible for a referendum to be denied.
ReplyDeleteThe crunch will come in 2026 - if the SNP backslide as they have done before, they won't get my vote - either of them. But if they stop being timid and put all their strength into campaigning on Independence, Independence, Independence, then they deserve an overall majority and the opportunity to give us what we all want. What was that word again? Oh yes, Independence.
The problem with "self-determination" is - how do you prove the will of the people? Yes, a referendum, but BEFORE that. One party having overall control on the total basis of Independence does the job, and nobody can deny then, the right to self-determination or indeed, the Sovereignty of the People of Scotland.
Meanwhile Alba and ISP have no chance, Liberation Scotland doesn't even feature, and the Greens are in a downward inward biting spiral over, well, not a lot really, certainly not Independence. It's SNP or - nothing. Monte Carlo or bust! Swinney is still on my timetable I may have mentioned months ago. A fair bit ahead, actually.
I agree, anybody who supports independence has to vote SNP, now that Swinney has put his cards on the table. Voting for any of the minor parties you mention is pointless. Why would any sane independence supporter vote for the likes of Liberation Scotland or ISP for God’s sake, it’s bonkers.
DeleteCome on, YI2, Swinney's been the Brits' pick ever since he was hoist up to replace Humza. He has zero interest in indy. He doesn't even talk the talk without wincing and caveating himself. Every time it comes to action, he's the point man for those against doing a damn thing. Absolutely the wrong leader for the party.
DeleteCan you even imagine the SNP campaigning on Independence, Independence, Independence next year under him? The SNP leaflet that came through my door the other day doesn't even mention it once. The word will barely cross his lips in the campaign. You know it, we all know it, the dogs in the street know it. He's against.
Swinney's simply putting an immovable object in the way so that a) he has to do nothing and b) he can blame the electorate for it when they fail to vote for the SNP in the required numbers.
DeleteIt's all bullshit of course - the blame for failure will lie with timorous Swinney and his cowardly cabal.
" make it nearly impossible for a referendum to be denied " well that is certainly an opinion yesindyref2 and you are entitled to it. Why do you hold this opinion? You really think Westminster values our votes in Scotland?
DeleteSNP Party accounts to end calendar year 2024 should be due in around three weeks.
ReplyDeleteShort money for the first six months of the year was about £635k. For the last six months, it was approx £181k.
They ran with a full complement of staff at Jackson’s Entry to the end of the year before downsizing (26 to 16). They may even be caught with full staffing costs plus redundancy payouts in the calendar year.
The tithe extracted from MPs will also have been substantially reduced for the second half of the year (pro rata 45/9).
Swinney’s move to try and bolster tithes from MSPs starting May 2026 reeks of desperation.
Our consituency SNP selected, by due current process, a party leadership, minor puppet as candidate for '26. Passive members gave him a slim majority over a much better candidate. No activist that I can find voted for him. He is now potentially part of the problem in moving towards independence rather than part of the solution.
ReplyDeleteThis little situation is a good illustration of how deep our problems go. The SNP in its present form is not a vehicle capable of winning our self determination. The cruel reality however is that it is the only plausible vehicle we have. Where does this place the fronts in our fight ?
1. We are forced to try to get SNP MSPs elected as a temporary shield to keep unionism and growing right wing populism/fascism off our necks.
2. We have to fight at a molecular level inside the SNP for a change in membership perceptions of what we need to do to move forward and also for a change in leadership towards a more hard nosed independence strategy and away from the comfortable platitudes of the likes of Mr. Swinney.
A tough road but that's where we are.
Excellent summation. After 49 years supporting SNP and Independence I decided after Swinney’s comments yesterday that I’ve had enough. Deeply disappointed and angry. What a crew of self serving shysters we have ended up with.
DeleteI wonder if the goal of achieving this mandate for a second referendum is being deliberately held at an unobtainable target so the SNP don't need to worry about having to push for it.
ReplyDeleteHas Skier donated to the SNP this morning after yesterday's announcement?
ReplyDeleteSo Swinney is telling everybody that if there is a super majority of independence supporting MSPs (eg 100MSPs) that will not count for anything regarding independence if there is not a majority of SNP MSPs.
ReplyDeleteSeems like a tactic to maintain control of independence by the SNP rather than any genuine move to progress independence.
The only question to ask Swinney is what are you going to call your book when you retire?
ReplyDeleteEveryone knows that Starmer will never grant a section 30, so next move is Europe and global. Come on, 2030s? Don’t back this and indy well beyond that. SNP the only show in town for this, don’t back it and unionist wont even need to lift a finger. It’s gone.
ReplyDeleteI see Dr Dr Jim is back to personally slagging you off James.
ReplyDeletePeople criticising Swinney's statement " might as well scream we're all Brits."
If any SNP leader told you to stand on your head and stick your finger up your arse at the same time these numpties would call you a Unionist if you didnae keep trying to do it.
NOTE It wasn't that long ago that Swinney was defending the current mandate at Holyrood being a majority for independence across parties other than the SNP as perfectly acceptable and the numpties defended this position. They now jump to defend Swinney's new position. Why do these people want to be independent when they have no independent mind of their own.
Latest YouGov, Westminster voting intention.
ReplyDeleteCon 17%, Lab 22%, LibDem 14%, RefUK 29%
Scottish sub-sample (142) Con 6%, Lab 21%, LibDem 8%, SNP 31%, RefUK 22%, Green 9%.