Scottish subsample: SNP 41%, Reform UK 30%, Labour 15%, Liberal Democrats 7%, Greens 3%, Conservatives 3%
Having talked the subsample up, I'm now going to have to talk it back down again, because Ipsos are not like YouGov, so the Scottish figures are probably not correctly weighted. However, 4% for the SNP in the GB-wide numbers, which are properly weighted, is not at all shabby - and this is the latest in a string of decent GB-wide polls for the party since their setback in the Hamilton by-election, although curiously the fieldwork for this poll took place before that vote.
Why the long delay? It may have something to do with Ipsos rolling out a new methodology - they seem to be changing their emphasis from telephone polling to an adjusted version of online panel polling (one of the adjustments being that panel members are recruited offline). I don't know whether that will affect their long-running series of Scottish telephone polls commissioned by STV. But certainly the headline numbers do look a bit different from polls conducted by other firms - as far as I can see, Reform's 34% is an all-time high across all pollsters, beating even the 33% previously recorded by Find Out Now a couple of times in May. The gap between Labour in second place and the Tories in third is also bigger than other firms have been showing.
Incidentally, Ipsos have given Alba propagandists no hiding place in this poll, because it looks like Alba were offered as an option, but recorded a big fat zero in the Scottish subsample.
Net ratings for party leaders:
So, with a bit more time, I checked out Scotland 2050 conference which happened last week. It was organised by these, a mix I'd say of Labour and SNP and others, and both unionist and independist in nature:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.scotland-2050.co.uk/about#founders
and Swinney's speech is here - remembering the context that this is NOT a speech to the faithful, but to all of Scotland, political and civic:
https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotland-2050-conference-first-ministers-speech/
and I'm going to highlight this bit:
"That is why, like a clear majority of Scots, I believe that our nation should have the right to choose our future.
If this is a voluntary union, as Westminster politicians insist, then it is completely untenable that there is no mechanism for Scotland to leave the United Kingdom, if it so wishes.
Whether it is Keir Starmer, Kemi Badenoch or Nigel Farage, no Westminster politician should have the ability to deny Scotland her right to national self-determination."
Personally I think it's about the best he could do carefully in the context, and it should make undecided and even noes, cause to think. It also helps Salvo and the UN initiative, in the context of the arguments used against Scotland in the UKSC dismissal of the LA Reference; where perhaps to cut a long judgement short, self-determination was dismissed on the basis that it should be done internally via the State (the UK). But if that's not possible, then ...
YIndyref2 Thanks for this extract, but don't you think he's being a little bit too insipid? '.,.should have the right to choose...' isn't that kneeling before the imperial masters yet again? It suggests that there is still no plan, and no will to move forward apart from begging.
DeleteJohn Swinney. Scotland’s very own Oliver Twist.
DeleteYir2. You are all over the place. One minute you are criticising Swinney then Swinney says something vague about independence and you are back swooning at his feet.
DeleteI think it's fine for the event, which had leaders of Labour and LibDems, civic leaders, STUC I think, people he's looking to get onside to join the demand for Scotland to have at the least, more freedom of action. But as he put it:
Delete"I know there are many in this room who are not yet persuaded by the case for independence, and others who will never be. I respect that."
The important thing then is to find common ground with all these to move forward. The Languages Bill got unanimous consent and goes forward for royal assent. Between 2007 and 2011 Salmond worked well with the opposition parties.
I see it though in terms of this, considering Salvo's work:
https://www.ohchr.org/en/instruments-mechanisms/instruments/declaration-granting-independence-colonial-countries-and-peoples
"Declares that:
2. All peoples have the right to self-determination; by virtue of that right they freely determine their political status and freely pursue their economic, social and cultural development."
I don't support Reform, and won't be voting for them, but I can't imagine Farage not becoming prime minister unless something huge and completely unforeseen occurs. Labour changing leader wouldn't be it, unless perhaps they undid all their changes post-Corbyn and made it somebody truly left-wing. So that's not happening.
ReplyDeleteTories are squashed between Labour and Reform, Lid Dems have no presence, Greens are toxic to too many of the electorate (not irreversibly, but I can't see them fixing it anytime soon), and the SDP, who should ve seeing a similar rise to Reform, make the Lib Dems look like a big deal.
Looking back at the Hamilton result, the difference is that although a lot of people might switch between SNP and Labour, supporters of both parties actively HATE Reform.
ReplyDeleteAbsolutely ridiculously good poll for the snp. John Swinney is doing a great job, there is no argument about that.
ReplyDeleteIndeed.
DeleteThe SNP are back big time, roll on the Holyrood election.
Both votes SNP.
DeleteTalking to yourself again Declan.
DeleteDear Declan,
DeleteYou are spot on and totally correct.
John Swinney is the sure hand that the party needs, a steadying influence and reassuring presence. Just the ticket.
His achievements are legion and legendary:
In his first tenure as leader the SNP there were 3 elections:
a) Westminster 2001: loss of 1 of 6 MPs and 2% vote share decline
b) Holyrood 2003: Loss of 8 MSPs and 5%-6% vote share decline
c) European 2004: 8% vote share reduction
But for some reason the SNP membership wanted him to step down so he magnanimously - and, I think, against his better judgment - agreed to relinquish his position in 2004.
After the membership realised the error of their ways John was rightly reinstalled as party leader in 2024 and has thus far overseen the following elections:
a) Westminster 2024: Loss of 9 of 48 MPs and 15% vote share decline
b) Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse: Loss of iconic seat and 17% vote share decline
That's some record.
I really don't know why there are calls for Honest John to resign as leader (again).
I think he's just getting warmed up!
And I can't wait for next year's Holyrood election when the SNP will be truly benefit from the leadership of Fool-On John.
Yours facetiously,
I.M. Lemming
Ship has been steadied but needs a more energetic and direct course over the next year.
DeleteCan still be done in time available and will be greatly helped by the alternatives becoming less and less palatable to most decent Scots.
John has steadied the ship, but it’s still sitting perilously close to the rocks. He needs to set sail for clear, Saltire-blue waters.
DeleteSNP Baaaad. Sturgeon baaaaad. John Swinney baaad. Blah blah. Away out into the sunshine with intermittent heavy showers, ya bunch a grumpy pretenders.
DeleteShould be easier to put Independence on the ballot paper now.
ReplyDelete