Scottish subsample: SNP 41%, Reform UK 30%, Labour 15%, Liberal Democrats 7%, Greens 3%, Conservatives 3%
Having talked the subsample up, I'm now going to have to talk it back down again, because Ipsos are not like YouGov, so the Scottish figures are probably not correctly weighted. However, 4% for the SNP in the GB-wide numbers, which are properly weighted, is not at all shabby - and this is the latest in a string of decent GB-wide polls for the party since their setback in the Hamilton by-election, although curiously the fieldwork for this poll took place before that vote.
Why the long delay? It may have something to do with Ipsos rolling out a new methodology - they seem to be changing their emphasis from telephone polling to an adjusted version of online panel polling (one of the adjustments being that panel members are recruited offline). I don't know whether that will affect their long-running series of Scottish telephone polls commissioned by STV. But certainly the headline numbers do look a bit different from polls conducted by other firms - as far as I can see, Reform's 34% is an all-time high across all pollsters, beating even the 33% previously recorded by Find Out Now a couple of times in May. The gap between Labour in second place and the Tories in third is also bigger than other firms have been showing.
Incidentally, Ipsos have given Alba propagandists no hiding place in this poll, because it looks like Alba were offered as an option, but recorded a big fat zero in the Scottish subsample.
Net ratings for party leaders:
So, with a bit more time, I checked out Scotland 2050 conference which happened last week. It was organised by these, a mix I'd say of Labour and SNP and others, and both unionist and independist in nature:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.scotland-2050.co.uk/about#founders
and Swinney's speech is here - remembering the context that this is NOT a speech to the faithful, but to all of Scotland, political and civic:
https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotland-2050-conference-first-ministers-speech/
and I'm going to highlight this bit:
"That is why, like a clear majority of Scots, I believe that our nation should have the right to choose our future.
If this is a voluntary union, as Westminster politicians insist, then it is completely untenable that there is no mechanism for Scotland to leave the United Kingdom, if it so wishes.
Whether it is Keir Starmer, Kemi Badenoch or Nigel Farage, no Westminster politician should have the ability to deny Scotland her right to national self-determination."
Personally I think it's about the best he could do carefully in the context, and it should make undecided and even noes, cause to think. It also helps Salvo and the UN initiative, in the context of the arguments used against Scotland in the UKSC dismissal of the LA Reference; where perhaps to cut a long judgement short, self-determination was dismissed on the basis that it should be done internally via the State (the UK). But if that's not possible, then ...
YIndyref2 Thanks for this extract, but don't you think he's being a little bit too insipid? '.,.should have the right to choose...' isn't that kneeling before the imperial masters yet again? It suggests that there is still no plan, and no will to move forward apart from begging.
DeleteI don't support Reform, and won't be voting for them, but I can't imagine Farage not becoming prime minister unless something huge and completely unforeseen occurs. Labour changing leader wouldn't be it, unless perhaps they undid all their changes post-Corbyn and made it somebody truly left-wing. So that's not happening.
ReplyDeleteTories are squashed between Labour and Reform, Lid Dems have no presence, Greens are toxic to too many of the electorate (not irreversibly, but I can't see them fixing it anytime soon), and the SDP, who should ve seeing a similar rise to Reform, make the Lib Dems look like a big deal.
Looking back at the Hamilton result, the difference is that although a lot of people might switch between SNP and Labour, supporters of both parties actively HATE Reform.
ReplyDeleteAbsolutely ridiculously good poll for the snp. John Swinney is doing a great job, there is no argument about that.
ReplyDeleteIndeed.
DeleteThe SNP are back big time, roll on the Holyrood election.