GB-wide voting intentions (More In Common, 16th-19th May 2025):
Reform UK 30% (+2)
Labour 22% (-3)
Conservatives 21% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 14% (-)
Greens 8% (-)
SNP 2% (-)
Plaid Cymru 1% (-)
Reform have also hit 30% for the first time ever in a More In Common poll, and it goes without saying that their 8-point lead is also the highest they've ever had with the firm.
I've seen a bit of chatter in one or two places about the SNP being on 2% of the GB-wide vote (as opposed to the more usual 3%) in four consecutive polls from different firms. Well, two of those firms are More In Common and Techne, who actually both show the SNP on 2% extremely frequently, so there's a fair chance that this is just a coincidental little run caused by normal margin of error noise. But time will tell.
It certainly does look as though England is switching to Reform. Essentially a rejection of Tweedledum and Tweedledee rather an endorsement. Depressing and Labour's own fault. Reading Sharon Graham's article in the Guardian I can understand her frustration with the party.
ReplyDeleteExtremely rare for the SNP to hit 2%, four times in a row on UK wide, Westminster voting intention polls. It’s usually 3%, but it’s a marginal call and a matter of rounding up or down from tenths of a percentage point.
ReplyDeleteThe three polls which give a Scottish sub-sample (More in Common, YouGov, & Opinium, combined population sample 352) have the following average numbers:
Con 10.7%, Lab 18.7%, LibDem 12.3%, RefUK 19%, SNP 28.3%, Green 9.3%.
Plugged into a Holyrood prediction calculator, there’s a hung parking with SNP 15 seats short of a majority.
Seat projection: SNP 50 (-14), RefUK 23, Lab 21 (+5), Con 13 (-18), LibDem 13 (+9), Green 9 (+1).
I've already addressed that point. It is not uncommon *at all* for the SNP to be on 2% with Techne and More In Common, which dramatically increases the chances of four in a row happening by random coincidence.
DeleteSpurs Tony: how were you able to plug that into a Holyrood prediction calculator without knowing what the list vote would be? Are you just assuming the constituency and list votes are identical? Very unlikely.
DeleteI wonder who spurs Tony actually supports?
DeleteConsidering the SNPs problems in recent years, it’s very encouraging to see them holding steady around 28% in the Scottish sub sample.
Delete28% is excellent for the SNP.
DeleteBBC election debate lineup:
ReplyDeleteSir Keir Starmer (or his replacement)
Kemi Badenoch (or her replacement)
And the winner himself: Farage.
Easy to predict. "Only these men can possibly become prime minister." Which has the frustrating strength of being inevitably right. Scots have no place whatsoever on England's stage.
There does not have to be a debate.
ReplyDeleteScots are at last recognising the futility of Westminster elections/representation.
ReplyDeleteWhen support for independence is consistently much higher than support for the SNP then it tells you the SNP's mass pro immigration stance is killing off support for the party. The Flamingo land stance and the proposed upgrade of the A82 between Tarbet and Ardlui which will see much of the loch side trashed despite a huge petition with support from the national park suggesting an alterative route up behind Tarbet, will cost the part any hope of defeating Jackie Baillie.
ReplyDeleteThen there is CalMac and its ongoing shambles and the zone card prices which effectively has priced commuters away from the card.
The housing crisis yet the SNP slashed the housing budget.
All these things are real and affect independence supporters and you can see why they, me included, will not lend my vote to the SNP despite supporting independence.
Independence if it happens will take years to sort out, people need housing, transport and security right now!
(Sounds the Unionist concern troll alarm)
DeleteIt couldn't be more obvious lol
DeleteAnon@10:57am, you talk a lot of sense. Sadly too many people turn a blind eye to the issues you mention. The SNP have been guilty of gross incompetence in recent years.
DeleteAnon at 12.15
DeleteWhat political party in government elsewhere in the UK has proven itself more competent than the SNP in govt in Scotland?
Anon 12.21 that's not the point. Comparative incompetence? The problem is they know they can do whatever they like cos we keep voting for indy - they think we're schmucks
DeleteThat’s correct. I think we can all agree that the vast majority who vote SNP do so because they keep dangling the independence carrot. It’s certainly not because of their record in government, which is pretty dire.
DeleteYip, anyone who has a genuine concern about the SNP is a unionist troll. The best argument for the SNP seems to be, oh look they have a better record than blah blah blah. It's not a very high benchmark to compare the SNP with the UK government or Welsh government
DeleteSo many gullible fools continue to vote SNP in the hope that one day they’ll deliver independence.
DeleteFools indeed!
Bonkers!
So many idiots trashing the SNP's performance in government, without specifying an alternative political party to take their place and run the country better.
DeleteThe reason is clear enough.
The SNP Scottish Govt has done a better job of looking after its citizens with better and more humane policies, that Labour has in Wales and the Tories/Labour have in England.
As for the extreme right thickos in Reform.............
Why on earth would we Scots want to put worse performing, vastly inferior unionist parties in charge up here?
@6:18pm,
DeleteLOL
🤣🤣🤣🤣
Anon @ 6.18
DeleteLOL 🤣🤣🤣🤣
Anons @ 6 37 and 7 38
DeleteLOL 🤣🤣🤣🤣
Reform might be the last thing on Starmer's mind today as he may be about to be engulfed in his very own "Profumo" affair!
ReplyDeleteIt’s unbelievable, the halfwits on here attempting to defend the SNPs record in government.
ReplyDeleteAre you Lord Brocket?
DeleteIt’s unbelievable the halfwits on here attempting to put down the SNPs record in government!!! For example following the English financial crises in 2008, Westminsters austerity began in 2010 which hit our ‘cap in hand’ Scottish ‘grant’ the SNP as the Scottish government did not pass that on to working class Scot’s!!! Whereas if right wing Labour or right wing Tory or extreme right wing reform had been in power in Scotland we would have been well and truly fucked!!!
ReplyDelete“English financial crises”
DeleteLOL
It was the Global Financial Crisis you clown!!
It’s embarrassing how people like you blame all of our problems on Westminster and the English. You come across as a gullible brainwashed fool.
Clown? You wouldn’t want to meet me!!! You really don’t get it do you. How dare I blame the English Parliament on the financial crisis that impacted MY country Scotland!!! They had a massive incompetent role in that sorry mess. I ain’t gullible and I most certainly am not brainwashed. Stick that up your doc martens neo Nazi scum helmet. Do you live in Millwall?
DeleteYep.
ReplyDeleteThe imbeciles who still think that 'WM knows best' even after Johnson, Truss, Sunak, Starmer and their Brexit, let alone Farage, really are beyond all psychiatric help.
They are so dense that light bends round them.
Also known as unionists or WoS cultists.
You’re entitled to your opinion.
DeleteYou’re probably a Sturgeon worshipper too!
Netanyahu is fascist slime and so is anyone who supports his fascist genocidal government.
ReplyDeleteAnd that includes the fascist slime on WoS.