Friday, March 7, 2025

Reform UK lead in Find Out Now poll for EIGHTH time in a row

Reform UK went "Full Alba" today by removing the whip from one of their five MPs and referring him to the police.  In a small way that's good news for the SNP, because it now becomes slightly less likely that Reform will overtake them as the fourth largest party in the Commons during this parliament due to by-elections or defections.

It's obviously too soon for any impact of this incident to show up in the opinion polls, but I wouldn't automatically assume there'll be one.  Pretty much every parliamentary grouping Farage has ever been part of has fallen apart to some extent, and yet he always seems to come bouncing back as if nothing really changed.  In the meantime, a Find Out Now poll published today showed Reform with an outright lead yet again, albeit a sharply reduced one, which was perhaps inevitable due to the bounce for Labour caused by the Trump / Ukraine crisis.

GB-wide voting intentions (Find Out Now, 5th March 2025):

Reform UK 26% (-2)
Labour 25% (+2)
Conservatives 21% (-)
Liberal Democrats 12% (-1)
Greens 10% (-)
SNP 3% (-)
Plaid Cymru 1% (-)

By now, the pattern is pretty well established - three of the last four polling companies to report showed a two-point increase in Labour support, and the other showed a three-point increase.  So it does look like Trump's antics have benefited Labour a bit, but the effect has been far too modest to get Starmer out of the deep hole he was in.  The likelihood is, I would guess, that international affairs will eventually fade from view and even the small boost Labour have enjoyed will be reversed.

By my count, this is either the seventh or eighth Find Out Now poll in a row to show an outright Reform lead - it all depends on whether you count the MRP poll from late January or not (and I'd suggest there's no good reason not to).

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As Mhairi Black has come out and publicly said what we always suspected, ie. that she would have left the SNP if Kate Forbes had become SNP leader, it might be worth reminding ourselves that Ms Forbes is relatively well-regarded by the public and is probably the one person who could take over from John Swinney without it being a backward step as far as voters are concerned.  Here are the latest net ratings for leading politicians published by Ipsos only a few days ago - 

Kate Forbes (SNP): -8
John Swinney (SNP): -8
Anas Sarwar (Labour): -23
Russell Findlay (Conservatives): -31
Keir Starmer (Labour): -32
Nigel Farage (Reform UK): -43
Kemi Badenoch (Conservatives): -44
Donald Trump (US Republicans): -53
Elon Musk (US Republicans): -58

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34 comments:

  1. Mhairi Black is bold and speaks truth she fights hard and cares deep she stands tall for people ... she could guide SNP to new days.

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    1. "Mhairi Black is bold and speaks truth she fights hard and cares deep she stands tall for people"

      That'll be why she's leaving politics to tour with a comedy-politics show.

      Joker.

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    2. Anon at 8.33 ... you're a bit of a joker if you can't accept that people go through different phases in their lives. MB is only thirty, so why assume that she will never return to politics? She can change her mind, you know.

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    3. Black and Yousaf have been pitching up on BBC's Newsnight programme recently to tell us their opinion on world affairs. Just a couple of token phoney independence supporters picking up easy money from the British state.

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    4. Grow up, missus!

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    5. Black has said that she would have quit the SNP had Kate Forbes became leader and it's possible that she may end up in a different Party in the future.

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    6. IfS is miffed that they didn't join the ISP.

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    7. Ifs as She/he/it/them/ maybe needs somebody to join ISP so they can talk. They are worse than ALBA.

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    8. Anon at 5.23pm and 6.42pm - probably the same numpty. Stop obsessing about me. Get a wee simple hobby it will be better for your mental health. It's clear you have nothing worthwhile to contribute on SGP.
      I very much doubt ISP would want a pair of phoney independence grifters like Black and Yousaf as members. Yousaf is more than happy with his lifetime pension paid by the taxpayer for one year of grifting as FM. He never lifted a finger on independence. Partly why he got the job. Black knew she would lose her seat and have to give up her boozey lifestyle in London anyway. No money to be made as an ISP member so that wouldnae suit her.

      Just as Sturgeon rewarded Evans with a better paid extended contract for trying to stitch up Salmond Swinney is now repeating the trick by appointing Griffin as the new permanent secretary. Griffin being belatedly rewarded for services rendered for his part in the trial.

      The SNP working hand in glove with the British state.

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    9. More lies from IFS supporter of nothing.

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    10. Care to be specific about what exactly are lies in that post by IFS.

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  2. The destroyer of worlds?

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    1. Say what you like but I really like Dutch people. 👍

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  3. "Destroyer of worlds". Speaking of which - Trump fascism may be throwing the the viability of UK nukes up in the air. Blackford shows the SNP to have a weak flank on the question.
    As I'm now back in the nearest SNP branch to Faslane, and have several good allies on the matter, may have a push at ruffling a few feathers against any backsliding on the issue. As good a place as any to begin yet another phase of being a political pain in the neck to those who deserve it.

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  4. O/T
    Not seen the unionist troll KC on here for a bit.
    Hopefully he’s gone for good!

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    1. He's upset about all the infighting in Reform.

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    2. The Reform crowd seem to be following the example of their UKIP Brexit Brigade forerunners. Wasn't there a hospitalisation incident in Strasbourg a few years ago after one Kipper gave another one a good hiding in the Parliament? Keep up the good work!

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  5. Never mind KC, where's IfS? Unless ... no, couldn't be, surely?

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    1. Nessie is a numpty!

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    2. I'm up to high doe about this.

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    3. Anon at 12.58pm. Listen you numpty I've told you before to stop obsessing about me and get yourself a nice wee hobby. It will be good for your mental health.

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    4. Hullo, my darling little fruitbat. You're a pretty lady 😍

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    5. 4.25pm it’s impressive you can still post on SGP when wearing your straight jacket.

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    6. "Listen you numpty I've told you before to stop obsessing about me" Dinney worry, be more concerend that Dave Francis is on a week long self interfering marathon. His per wee man must be suffering on your behalf.

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  6. Unthirldom fae ScotlandMarch 8, 2025 at 5:38 PM

    We hae twa leids ye ken.

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    1. Aon duthich , dha canain.

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    2. Or even aon dùthaich, dà chànan.

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    3. I might speak Gaelic but I was never taught how to write it . Tha mi duilich

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  7. You must be in imminent danger of exceeding your Breidbart.

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  8. From the Herald -

    Problem: "Guy Stenhouse
    Britain is in deadly danger, we must rearm now and stop freeloading off US
    "

    Solution: Conscript Guy Stenhouse for a 10 year term

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  9. Black leaving the SNP, along with the blue hair freak contingent would've been no great loss. They have set independence back at least a decade because of their obsession with men in size 12 stilettos.

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    Replies
    1. Black was impressive for a short time.

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    2. Was that 30 mins or a full hour.

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