Reform UK lead in Find Out Now poll for EIGHTH time in a row

Reform UK went "Full Alba" today by removing the whip from one of their five MPs and referring him to the police.  In a small way that's good news for the SNP, because it now becomes slightly less likely that Reform will overtake them as the fourth largest party in the Commons during this parliament due to by-elections or defections.

It's obviously too soon for any impact of this incident to show up in the opinion polls, but I wouldn't automatically assume there'll be one.  Pretty much every parliamentary grouping Farage has ever been part of has fallen apart to some extent, and yet he always seems to come bouncing back as if nothing really changed.  In the meantime, a Find Out Now poll published today showed Reform with an outright lead yet again, albeit a sharply reduced one, which was perhaps inevitable due to the bounce for Labour caused by the Trump / Ukraine crisis.

GB-wide voting intentions (Find Out Now, 5th March 2025):

Reform UK 26% (-2)

Labour 25% (+2)

Conservatives 21% (-)

Liberal Democrats 12% (-1)

Greens 10% (-)

SNP 3% (-)

Plaid Cymru 1% (-)

By now, the pattern is pretty well established - three of the last four polling companies to report showed a two-point increase in Labour support, and the other showed a three-point increase.  So it does look like Trump's antics have benefited Labour a bit, but the effect has been far too modest to get Starmer out of the deep hole he was in.  The likelihood is, I would guess, that international affairs will eventually fade from view and even the small boost Labour have enjoyed will be reversed.

By my count, this is either the seventh or eighth Find Out Now poll in a row to show an outright Reform lead - it all depends on whether you count the MRP poll from late January or not (and I'd suggest there's no good reason not to).

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As Mhairi Black has come out and publicly said what we always suspected, ie. that she would have left the SNP if Kate Forbes had become SNP leader, it might be worth reminding ourselves that Ms Forbes is relatively well-regarded by the public and is probably the one person who could take over from John Swinney without it being a backward step as far as voters are concerned.  Here are the latest net ratings for leading politicians published by Ipsos only a few days ago - 

Kate Forbes (SNP): -8

John Swinney (SNP): -8

Anas Sarwar (Labour): -23

Russell Findlay (Conservatives): -31

Keir Starmer (Labour): -32

Nigel Farage (Reform UK): -43

Kemi Badenoch (Conservatives): -44

Donald Trump (US Republicans): -53

Elon Musk (US Republicans): -58

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Interestingly only watched one, Oppenheimer, and was very bored and bitterly disappointed that it didn’t really cover any of the engineering https://t.co/lk6mS0zQco

— Christopher McEleny (@ChrisMcEleny) March 8, 2025

As the film is actually largely about a kangaroo court with a predetermined outcome, I'd have thought it would be right up your street, Chris. Or are you less enthusiastic about such things now the shoe is on the other foot? https://t.co/fKnnlfOQDF

— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) March 8, 2025