"OK" someone asked me, "if these by-elections are in Labour-friendly wards, where are all the wards that the SNP should be winning on this swing?" Well, yesterday helpfully provided an answer to that question, because the Stirling East by-election produced a swing from SNP to Labour of around 4%, very much in line with what we've seen in recent weeks, and yet because it was a more favourable ward for the SNP, the victory went to the SNP.
Stirling East by-election result on first preference votes (5th December 2024):
SNP 34.6% (-4.1)
Labour 25.5% (+3.9)
Reform UK 14.1% (n/a)
Conservatives 12.2% (-11.1)
Independent - McGrow 5.6% (-2.3)
Greens 5.1% (+0.3)
Liberal Democrats 2.9% (+0.6)
In the other by-election yesterday, the swing to Labour was only marginally greater (5% rather than 4%), but because Labour were starting from first place in the ward, they eased to a very comfortable win.
Partick East & Kelvindale by-election result on first preference votes (5th December 2024):
Labour 37.5% (+5.3)
SNP 23.1% (-5.2)
Greens 18.2% (-2.7)
Conservatives 13.8% (+0.4)
Liberal Democrats 7.4% (+3.6)
The average swing to Labour in the two by-elections was 4.6%. If extrapolated nationally, that suggests an SNP national lead over Labour of around three percentage points - once again, broadly consistent with what the opinion polls have been showing.
It's interesting that Alba didn't take part in any of the by-elections this week or last week. That's a fairly strong clue as to how they managed to pull off their moderately respectable result in the Gourock by-election a couple of weeks ago - they poured all their resources, both human and financial, into that one contest and sacrificed participation in most of the others. That was actually a very smart strategy, but it does underscore that Alba are in a significantly weaker position than, for example, Reform UK, who have managed to put up candidates in the majority of by-elections and ended up with decent results almost across the board.
Happy to see this, it would be a turn up if SNP still "won" the election.
ReplyDeleteThat said, the gap in Partick east saddens me. This is a ward full of people you'd hope kept voting SNP rather than Labour. Pretty middle of the road and young voters. Don't want them going Labour.
That sounds like borderline-KC concern trolling to me, but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt. As stated in the blogpost, Labour won the popular vote in Partick East and Kelvindale in 2022, when the SNP were well ahead nationally.
DeletePS edit to be a bit more positive.. good result in Stirling. Confirms SNP are holding or even ahead.
DeleteReform is making inroads in Scotland, albeit not like in England. I wonder what the indigenous English vote is for Reform? It must be quite high. I'd never even considered being 'white' and still don't really understand the concept..as it wasnt a necessary note of distinction in a broadly Scottish place. Sounds awfy like American/English talking points making there way here. Sad to see
No, I used to live around there and surprised to see Labour have a gap like that.. you'd feel that labour were a busted flush among the young Scots there but I suppose it's a uni place and it's not what it used to be.
DeleteI'm curious when you look at the low turnout in most of these by-elections when compared to the typical turnout in a Scottish Parliament election doesn't that make it more difficult to paint a clear picture on how things look nationally?
ReplyDeleteIt just feels like using these results to see how things potentially look on a national level should come with a 'take this with a massive grain of salt' warning.
Not really. I suppose you could make a case that unionist parties seem to be slightly better at getting their vote out in low turnout by-elections, so the extrapolation from the swing in these results may be slightly understating the SNP's true lead at a national level. But I doubt if it's making a huge difference.
DeleteThis was my ward, I voted for the independent (even though he admitted he was a no voter) first and SNP second as he seemed to be the only one taking it seriously and actually paid attention to local issues. The SNP candidate also sent out a couple leaflets and seemed to have some presence. Not a peep from the others.
ReplyDeleteThe Lib Dem candidate was "Christopher Spreadborough", which I refuse to accept is a real name, and Labour's board outside the polling station was the inspiring "Stirling already has an SNP and a Tory, vote Labour 1" (I can't remember the precise wording).
Reform taking its vote from Conservatives and SNP there while Labour up.
ReplyDeleteGood SNP win and something to ponder.. do the SNP have a right flank? Hadn't thought about it before now.
Fantastic night to be an snp supporter. We really have turned it around, bring on 2026!
ReplyDelete"Declan" and "Declan Skier" are definitely two distinct people. I'm not sure how this happened.
DeleteI am he as you are he.
DeletePoll after poll, election result after election result – including July’s – says Scots are ever more against Westminster rule, and absolutely don’t want what is effectively England’s parliament interfering in Scottish matters.
English Labour are out of their minds if they think trying to bypass Holyrood will do anything but more damage to them. They are hitting new lows in popularity, yet seem to only want to make themselves even less liked. It’s crazy. They’ve lost their minds.
Is it a Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde thing? What triggers the transition from one to the other?
DeleteI've never met Declan Skier but I respect his opinions.
DeleteI've never met acress Annette Crosbie but I respect her opinions, especially as she is the only person that has visited all 50 states in the USA.
Delete“ Is it a Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde thing? “
DeleteNo. More likely a Mr Hyde Skier and Mr Hyde Skier thing.
Punched the air when I seen this result.
DeleteNo. I didn’t punch anything. I abhor violence.
DeleteI abhor people who don't have a courgette slicer in their ghastly homes.
DeleteI never knew that about Annette Crosbie. That's interesting and very surprising.
DeleteI'm surprised Lab had so many election wards where they come first when the SNP were polling so high. Had no clue they'd dug in to that extent.
ReplyDeleteGreat victory for the SNP in Stirling. Points to a strange election to come. A lot to happen before then but SNP seem to have solid support which will not simply disappear.
you been listening to starmer and his land of hope and glory nonesense. the brit nats like you are desperate
ReplyDeleteAnon@5:30,
ReplyDeleteWhen will the penny final drop with fools like you that you’re in a minority, and always will be? A clear majority of the Scottish people realise what utter lunacy independence would be.
Seriously, you need to get a grip!
are the scotch not glad to be almost englishmen; have they not won the lottery of life - has the wise pimp hand not steadied them from their tendency for fratricide, sentimentality and hard drink?
DeleteThat would be "the utter lunacy" which is shared by around 99% of the countries on this Planet, then???
DeleteYou DO understand how myopic, insular and plain dumb you sound, dont you???
In other words......a BritNat unionist.
D Francis spouting embarrassing bullshit. A deluded Nat.
DeleteAnon BritNat COWARD @ 8:03 PM -
DeleteWhich bit of my post was wrong Dummy???
David Francis,
DeleteTo use one of IFS’s favourite words, you come across as a real numpty!
Seriously, when will the brit nationalists realise that as Scots we wish to govern ourselves. Truss, no more, Johnson, no more, Starmer, no more. The brit nats forced brexit on Scotland and we know how that has been an absolute failure.
ReplyDeleteWhen will the penny drop with with the little englanders that they should govern themselves ?
Anon@5:44,
DeleteWhat an embarrassment people like you are to Scotland.
Thanks, Marmaduke.
DeleteNations independent https://www.un.org/en/about-us/member-states. You would think England would stop being so feart.
DeleteWee Brit nats greetin for their wee empire biscuit.
ReplyDeleteThank you, Sir Marmaduke, for your fine British words.
ReplyDeleteScots voted 62% to be in eu. England ignored.
ReplyDeleteNae democracy in Scotland . We are a colony an hae tae thole it...unless...
ReplyDeleteThe SNP Government will stop publishing independence white papers, it has been confirmed.
ReplyDeleteOne final 'overview' will be published before the series ends... guessing that means independence has been achieved!? When we all celebrating?
I know. I wish the Spanish and Danes would give up on it too. Its embarrassing 😳
ReplyDeleteRule Britannia
ReplyDeleteGod save the King.
50% German 50% Greek-
DeleteReform are the elephant in the room. They’re going to have a sizeable representation at Holyrood after the next election. We should be fearing them more than a few percentage point swings between SNP and Labour.
ReplyDeleteSNP is obviously the best party. Join that.
ReplyDeleteLOL
Delete