I'm slightly puzzled that one or two people are defending Labour's false claim to have "gained" the seat in yesterday's Falkirk South by-election. It's true that it was one of those paradoxical situations which frequently crop up in STV by-elections, where Labour had to try to "hold" the seat even though the SNP were well ahead in the ward last time around. But there are two fatal problems with the claim of a Labour "gain". Firstly, a lack of consistency - there have been any number of times in the past where Labour have claimed to have "gained" a seat in a by-election even when they had been in the lead in the ward at the previous election, so they can't have it both ways. And secondly, what is actually the alternative to determining "gain" or "hold" by looking at the party that held the seat before it fell vacant? The only one I can really think of is to tot up the first preference votes for all of a party's candidates in the ward at the previous election, see which party had the most first preference votes overall, and then see if there's any change at the by-election. And if you do it that way, if anything the Falkirk South by-election comes out as an "SNP hold" rather than a "Labour gain" or even a "Labour hold", because the SNP were the leading party in the ward in 2022 and also narrowly won the first preference vote yesterday.
Falkirk South by-election result on first preference votes, 18th October 2024:
SNP 31.3% (-10.3)
Labour 30.5% (+8.1)
Conservatives 14.7% (-13.9)
Reform UK 9.9% (n/a)
Independent - McKean 5.5% (n/a)
Greens 4.5% (-1.1)
Liberal Democrats 3.6% (n/a)
Labour 30.5% (+8.1)
Conservatives 14.7% (-13.9)
Reform UK 9.9% (n/a)
Independent - McKean 5.5% (n/a)
Greens 4.5% (-1.1)
Liberal Democrats 3.6% (n/a)
A 0.8% lead on first preferences was never likely to be enough for the SNP to hold on for the win given that there were so many Tory and Reform UK votes waiting to be transferred, but as ever the sheer extent of the affection of right-wing voters for the Labour party is quite the sight to behold. Excluding non-transferable votes, 85% of Tory voters transferred to Labour and only 15% to the SNP. Better news is that Green voters once again broke more for the SNP, although not overwhelmingly so - 65 Green voters transferred to the SNP, and 42 to Labour.
I think the SNP can take some consolation from topping the poll in a central belt location, because that wasn't happening much (arguably not at all) on 4th July. That said, this result is poorer for the SNP than last week's results in North Lanarkshire and the previous week's results in Dundee, because the swing of around 9% to Labour would be enough to put Labour approximately six points ahead Scotland-wide - very much in line with the general election result.
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I'm curious to hear your thoughts on potential replacements for Murray Foote as the SNP CEO.
ReplyDeleteIt feels like a pretty significant moment & whoever ends up getting the job will be big indicator on the direction the Party goes in moving forward.
I agree, although I'm not even going to speculate as to who that person might be. Whether it's a good or bad appointment (and my expectation is bad), the actual name will probably take us by surprise.
DeleteI'm hoping against hope that the SNP will see sense and appoint Celine Gottwald.
DeleteAt least it can't be Chris McEleny.
DeleteWhere is that award winnning master forecaster of all SNP and independence matters to forecast who will replace Foote. Come on Declan (Skier) tell us who it's going to be - we can at least categorically rule that person out.
DeleteWell, Murray Foote has had an interesting journey, long may it continue. And perhaps the Record is on an interesting journey but that's a different story. Meanwhile, for the vacant SNP Chief Executive role they should advertise openly, and have a fair and honest competition for the role. To steal a bit from elsewhere:
Delete"an open and competitive recruitment process to select the person best suited to leading the Party. Chief executive roles are difficult and demanding, and it is important that the best person with the right skill set is selected for the position."
The SNP from being a party of protest moved to being a party of opposition, and from there to being a party of government. Note carefully "government" NOT "power" - they only govern with our permission, and any power we give them, we can remove. I think the SNP totally lost sight of that. Power mad, you could say.
So such an open and intelligent recruitment process might go some way to reverse the opinion of some.
Murray Foote and the Vow that helped him win Indyref for no.
DeleteHow any of these SNP numpties talked themselves in to accepting Foote in the SNP and still hold on to the belief that the SNP under the control of Sturgeon's gang was still for Scottish independence is incredible. It smacks of Trump telling his cult that Haiti immigrants are eating American citizen's dogs and cats. Most normal citizens would think how can people believe that. I think the same about the SNP and Foote.
To then make him Chief Exec after the previous Chief Exec resigns in disgrace is really Britnats ( in the SNP) taking the piss and laughing at the SNP.
Whether or not you actually belief Foote suddenly was converted to independence after the referendum it matters not. His vow was illegal it broke the Edinburgh Agreement and he also got Cameron a signatory to the Edinburgh Agreement to break it as well. These acts mark him out as a person who should not be recruited by anyone nevermind the SNP. They changed the meaning of a no vote at the last minute from a choice between the current situation or independence to a completely knew choice. No, now, was a promise of something vague in the future that may or may not be realised.
Foote helped ruin the referendum and for that he should never be forgiven never mind be given a plum job in the SNP. Just one of the many disgraceful acts by Sturgeon's gang.
That's why he had to go, and why it was a daft appointment in the first place. It's as though the SNP had no idea how pissed off most of the Indy movement was that we were robbed by the Vow.
DeleteCommunications was different - as long as carefully controlled. He had (has) media contacts.
It wasn't the vow that robbed Scotland, it was stupidity cowardice and habit, we robbed ourselves
DeleteDr Jim at 11.18pm the coward who posts as anon complaining about the cowardice of others.
DeleteDr Jim who has been right about what over the last 10 years - nothing. Jimbo who gets annoyed with me for pointing out the truth about so many things he wishes would be different. Mainly that he has been stupid enough to support phoney independence supporters for all these years even as every year went by the evidence piled up that Sturgeon was and is a charlatan. She betrayed Salmond but worse than that she betrayed Scotland.
Strange thing about that post of Dr Jim is that for many years he blatantly blamed Salmond for the 2014 loss. Now he blames us.
We are all to blame except Nicola - a wee insight into a Nicophants mind. Just how wrong can one person be. Not sure but Jimbo must be setting new records.
"We" failed Nicola. Definitely. I mean, as an embezzler who took her party and the Yes movement for more than enough money to buy a house, and as the leader who served up Scotland's right to determination to London on a silver with an apple stuffed in its mouth, she's evidently beyond reproach. Poor soul, it must be hard to be living saint.
DeleteSay it publicly and let’s see if you get sued.
DeleteAll’s fair in love and lawfare. Even stealing £622,000 right in public gaze.
DeleteProduce evidence and hand it over to the police. Otherwise you are just a sad wee man making things up and lying. Witness or sad wee liar. Which is it? No prizes for guessing.
DeleteAnon troll at 11.53am - something wrong with your memory. Murrell has been charged with embezzlement - remember now. The polis obviously believe they have evidence. Time will tell if it is sufficient for a conviction. The witness is the missing money.
DeleteYou just come across as a fool or someone trying to gaslight that none of this is happening.
The camper bus was merely "resting" in their account.
DeleteAnon at 8.41am - he just said it publicly. You really are a dimwit.
DeleteIdiot for Scotland. Answer the question. Yes or no. Don’t bother we know the answer you sad little man.
DeleteNo evidence to be handed over to the police? Why ever not?
DeleteA lunatic troll at 3.14pm is demanding I answer a question. What question would that be - who knows - then after demanding I answer some question - he says don't bother WE know the answer. The WE presumably being the angry voices in his head.
DeleteNow the anon at 3.14pm - is this the same troll? and who is he addressing his questions to. Not very articulate these trolls. Must be all the voices in their head. Possibly on that long waiting list for mental health treatment.
A long winded no then from Idiot for Scotland.You are a sad little fantasist liar. Get help, and get a life.
DeleteHee haw ya donkey at 7.07pm - more carrots for you 🥕🥕🥕🥕🥕🥕🥕🥕🥕🥕🥕🥕🥕🥕🥕🥕🥕🥕🥕🥕🥕🥕🥕🥕🥕
DeleteI’m available
ReplyDeleteYeah. I heard that. Are you still charging?
DeleteAnyways, after careful thought, there's no doubt in my mind the ScotGov screwed up big time by not at least standing behind the return of Alex Salmond regardless of who actually took the action. Whether the SNP liked him or not, he's an ex-FM, and should be given the same respect as would have been, and was, given to Donald Dewar.
ReplyDeleteCrawler
DeleteRobopottybotty
DeleteMore drivel from the pretendy socialist republican
DeleteNot sure Idiot from Scotland has posted on this bit yet.
DeleteNo, you just did mate. ;-)
Delete"More drivel from the pretendy socialist republican"
DeleteDoesn't make you a bad person.
Sort of hilarious that Scots are still getting behind Labour. Particularly elderly Scots, whom I assume are more likely to vote in council by-elections.
ReplyDeleteI’ve always loathed the term, but there is a definite air of cuckoldry about how the elderly of Scotland behave.
Imagine seeing the Winter Fuel Allowance going up in smoke. Then imagine being such a cuckold that you spread your cheeks, dutifully bend your knees, and beg for Keir Starmer to freeze you some more.
The elderly sound kinky! Is their keen willingness to shift around from Brit to Brit without a second's thought something you'd say makes them swingers?
DeleteApparently granny flaps love a bit of Grant Shapps.
DeleteMaybe they are confusing WFA with right to due proposals? Vote Labour and they will let you freeze to death. At least 4000 of you.
DeleteI'm from falkirk south. That'd a honking result for the SNP
ReplyDeleteYou hide your Tories well in Falkirk. In Edinburgh you can tell how many of them there are by all the Land Rovers blocking the roads for the private school run. “UKOK” and butchers aprons on more than a few.
Deleteif it weren't for bampots like stuart mccampbellman going on about campervans we would be independent by now; nikki and liz and leslie had created a masterplan to blow up the british state, get a section 30, and get us to indy, it even involved a paraglider attack on kentigern house ... but naw ... you wouldn't trust the plan; trust in the empress power suit and believe
ReplyDeleteTo give her credit: in hindsight you can see she had a master plan all along. But it wasn’t to secure Scottish independence.
Deletemore like a job at the UN or head of nato
DeleteThe despicable shits on WGD used to assure us that Sturgeon would be head hunted for a top international job within a few months of her resigning. We are on to her second replacement FM since then and nothing. Mind you not exactly a good look to appoint someone to your organisation currently being investigated for embezzlement and whose husband has been charged with embezzlement. Not to mention a live court case against her for malfeasance in public life.
DeleteNo doubt she is currently revising her book of hate memoirs as her lawyers have probably told her what she can get away with now that Salmond is dead.
The idea that she'd get a plum gig at the UN a bit fanciful. If she'd gotten us independence, then yes, Scotland could put her forward. But as she fluffed her shot, who else is going to put her forward? Perfidious Albion?
DeleteSorry Nicky, they've already used you. You know how it is.
Idiot for Scotland. Self confessed liar and fantasist. Sad wee man. But his acknowledgment is hopefully step 1 in his recovery. Let’s all support him by not flagging up his lies and fantasies. A wee smiley or just ignore him.
DeleteMoronic troll at 7.39pm " Self confessed liar " - you are confusing me with Scottish Skier or you are just a liar. I choose that you are just a liar who posts nothing but troll attacks. You are one sick individual who is obsessed with trolling me. The despicable shits from WGD have been trolling me for 5 years now - water off a ducks back.
Delete🥕🥕🥕🥕🥕🥕🥕 there you go some nice carrots for you I'm sure they are delicious ya donkey.
Moronic troll at 7.39pm says: " Lets all support him ...." the all would be all the voices in your head no doubt because nobody else would want anything do with a psycho troll like you.
DeleteAlex Salmond's legacy writ large
ReplyDeleteHe's gone but his misogynistic hate filled nutjob followers remain
12.25pm - have you posted the same comments on WGD Dr Jim?
DeleteBRIT NATS- no-one likes them as they project racism- Farage- England shouldn't have a football manager who is German yet apparently his family hold EU passports and his own wife is German. Boat people are the problem not the rich keeping their monies abroad. Brexit loving public now complain about empty shelves in the supermarkets, sewage in their rivers, seas and lakes, pollution in the air, riots in the street, no energy resources. Yes british nationalism is desperate.
ReplyDeleteThat's why Tories like Independence for Scotland keep posting their crap, to keep the hate filled division going
DeleteDr Jim at 12.50pm - you posted I was a Trotskyist just the other day now I am a Tory. Short term memory problems Jimbo.
DeleteCome on Jimbo: tell us what we should do then? Is it wheesht for indy and both votes SNP? Is it 10 more years just like the last 10?
DeleteYou're dying British, my friend. Not all of us are as accepting of that ignominy.
Ask yourself just what did Murray Foote do that helped the independence cause? He helped himself to SNP money all right as he would be on a good salary but what positive difference did he make.
ReplyDeleteOne thing for sure he stuck the boot in to Murrell by exposing his lies about membership numbers, Foote then resigned to appear as if he is a man of integrity and then pops back in no time at all to fill Murrell's job.
Despite the paltry turn-out a very bad result for the SNP and the Tories. A very good result for Labour and Reform. Despite strange opinion polls, the usual slagging of Labour in the media, and the SNP having gone into hibernation, the result looks similar to the GE.
ReplyDeleteNo, it wasn't a "very good" result for Labour, they will have been privately disappointed not to top the poll. "Strange opinion polls" being code for polls that accurately show Labour are no longer ahead nationally, I suppose.
DeleteThe propagandists always give themselves away.
An 8% gain is a good result just as a 10% loss is a bad result. You seem to have a biased set of standards for the Labour Party James. It's unbecoming.
DeleteI'm from this area and it feels broadly right. Most of my friends are SNP but some have moved Labour.
Deletesidney cooke might be getting parole, 98, but a few years left in him, would fit right in and be supportive of all lgbtq activities; unknown stance on indy
ReplyDelete