There was a brief moment of hope for Robert Jenrick in the Tory leadership contest a couple of days ago when a Find Out Now MRP projection suggested he would win more seats in a general election than Kemi Badenoch would (although the results for both of them were fairly dire). That hope has now been snuffed out by last night's head-to-head GB News debate, which like all normal people I didn't watch, but which seems to have been a clear win for Kemi Badenoch. Hilariously, ConservativeHome's verdict on the debate was "that's two hours of our lives we won't get back".
Nevertheless, the Find Out Now results are still of interest for other reasons, because the hypothetical questions about whether Jenrick or Badenoch is Tory leader shouldn't really affect the SNP v Labour battle in Scotland, and in both scenarios the SNP are projected to score a landslide victory (remember 29 seats is the target for a majority in Scotland).
Seats projection if Badenoch is Conservative leader:
Labour 332
Conservatives 151
Liberal Democrats 63
SNP 48
Reform UK 25
Plaid Cymru 4
Greens 4
Seats projection if Jenrick is Conservative leader:
Labour 311
Conservatives 178
Liberal Democrats 58
SNP 48
Reform UK 24
Plaid Cymru 4
Greens 4
Although polls asking hypothetical questions are always problematical, I'd suggest it's reasonable to assume that a standard MRP poll would show the SNP at roughly the same level, which would put them right back to where they were at the time of their 2019 landslide. Labour would appear to have completely blown it in Scotland in the space of just three or four months.
On the face of it this looks like a case of Labour proving resilient in England but not in Scotland, but that's actually not true - their share of the GB-wide vote in this poll is just 29% (if Badenoch is Tory leader) or 28% (if it's Jenrick). It's only the split in the right-wing vote that is keeping them afloat in England, but I doubt if they'll be able to rely on that indefinitely.
The GB-wide sample size was 6000, which means the Scottish sample won't have been that far short of what is normal for a full-scale Scottish poll.
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Encouraging numbers to say the least. Almost as encouraging as Murray Foote being oote. Now’s the day and now’s the hour for Swinney to make good on all the talk of renewing the SNP’s internal democracy. The choice of the next Chief Exec will speak volumes. Here’s hoping it offers a clean break with the cabals and dodgy dealings of the last few years.
ReplyDeleteWelcome back Peter Murrell!
DeleteYou’ve been away for at too long, boss. Welcome home!
DeleteGood news for the SNP. Good news for independence? I doubt it but like the caterpillar turning in to a beautiful butterfly there is always the very small chance that the devolutionists will morph into independistas. I wouldnae put any money on it though. I cannae see Swinney shouting freedom for Scotland.
ReplyDeleteJohn Swinney is doing an excellent job, which is recognised by many.
DeleteClearly there is nobody better to lead the SNP at this time.
Well if there isn’t anyone more capable to lead the SNP than Swinney then we’re fecked as they say in Father Ted
DeleteAnon at 12.46pm - are these the same people who clearly thought Yousaf was doing an excellent job.
Deletecunningham grahames corpse could do a better job
DeleteYousaf did an amazing job. He blocked Kate Forbes taking over the party and he did the hard work to ensure Jo Cherry lost her seat. Champagne all round for Team Nicola!
DeleteHaha IFS will be absolutely raging at these results. What a comeback this has been from the snp and John swinney. He's probably just spewed on his nuts.
DeleteThe SNP haven't done anything. Labour did this to themselves.
DeleteMuch the same as Labour had to thank the Tories and the MSM
DeleteDeclan ( Scottish Skier ) - when do you pick up your Forecaster of the Year Award. Is Kavanagh presenting it to you at the Numpty Hilton.
DeleteDon't remember reading you forecasting this comeback ( as you call it) Skier, oops sorry Declan. I only remember you forecasting the SNP would get more MPs than they had at present in the July election.
9 MPs you weren't even in the same galaxy ya numpty. Once a WGD numpty........now a despicable shit.
Never put money on Declan's ( Skier) forecast. He seems to have misplaced his famous Ski jump graph that guaranteed independence any day soon. Soon keeps moving. Once a WGD numpty.........now a despicable shit.
.
He doesn’t need too. He’s supported all his life including when times were even tougher.
ReplyDeleteAye and Daniel Defoe was also a supporter of Scottish independence because he said he was.
DeleteAlso anon numpty at 12.37pm you cannae even put your post in the right place.
Can we speculative on the reasons why Murray Foote is resigning as CEO?
ReplyDeleteHis explanation for it sounds like a cop-out. Options are he's been forced out due to the SNP genuinely reforming, he believes his work to destroy the independence movement is done, or he’s getting out before it all gets too hot to handle?
The last one. He can smell the coffee. He’s in this for himself, not for us.
Deletehe is turning king's evidence and entering the witness protection program
DeleteHe wanted the same pay and perks that his predecessor got and honest🤣John Swinney said no.
Deletehe wanted a campervan
DeleteThe MRP also suggests that the SNP have regained ground from Labour in Scotland. But the Scottish sub-sample is relatively small (619 respondents), so this result is not definitive.
ReplyDeleteI think we have Celine Gottwald to thank for the uptick in the SNP support. Thank you, Celine.
DeleteIf the SNP spent half as much energy on independence instead of trying to put cox in frox we would be a sovereign nation again
ReplyDeletethe trans lobby will be our vanguard in the march to indy - a cock free Scotland in a Free Scotland
Deletepeople erroneously see trans as current social fad driven by postmodern wankbrains bullshitting retarded teenagers, but that is to airbrush out of history the movement pioneers - Keir Hardie was a tranny, Cunnyham Graham a drag queen. Sang torch songs at the miners welfare. Aye
Deletebut is the anus a sex organ, really? is that not the heart of all the problems, monkeypox, aids, paedos, bbc tv personalities, public schools and imperialism
DeleteI often heard the SNP would lose its way once we won our independence.
ReplyDeleteLittle did I know the SNP would lose its way once we lost it.
ZZZZZZZzz. Didnt lose independence. Too many Scots were cowardly.
DeleteAnd too many English Scots were selfish.
Deletewe all should adopt a big tent approach and remember that the anglo is the enemy of the entire human race for the last 1000 years or so, and via their murderous kings whore mongering adopted a heresy which lead to capitalism, communism, socialism, fascism, nazism, climate change, abortion, trannies and all the attendant evils. Beasts walking on 2 legs, vampires.
DeleteHopefully the good polling for the SNP will carry on into the Scottish election with a good showing for ALBA. I would sooner see the SNP and ALBA work together than the SNP and the wonky woke Greens.
ReplyDeletewonky woke?
DeleteJust look at the Greens. "That!"
DeleteWokey woke Greens preferable to reactionary Alba.
Deletethe greens are death cult of sex perverts masquerading as environmentalists - mentalists, yeah, nviro, not so much
DeleteReady Murray Foote’s resignation letter it sounds very much like ‘artistic differences’ with Swinney (or whoever is now pulling the SNP strings ).
ReplyDeleteThey want to take the SNP organisation in a particular direction and Foote either doesn’t agree or he is not part of the direction the SNP wants to go in
Who they choose will let us know who is pulling the strings
If it’s a Sturgeon pick then Sturgeon is still in charge but I doubt that. I think the new guard should gave asserted control by now and the rest will go along with it because they are craven and want to keep their jobs / seats
So let’s see
‘Reading’ not really
DeleteSo Mridhul Wadwha or Joanna Cherry?
DeleteDon't get your hopes up, folks. This is John Swinney we're talking about! Expect disappointment.
DeleteNot disappointed with the usual anti independence post. Doing your duty to the English crown no doubt
DeleteCouldn't he have announced his resignation tomorrow or next week?
DeleteComes across as a real dick move to grap headlines on the day Alex Salmond's body is returned to Scotland.
What is the reason Labour has lost support in Scotland? More the Pensioners fuel allowance, Grangemouth?, Energy transfer to England?, or something else?
ReplyDeleteFuel allowance: yes.
DeleteGrangemouth: probably not much, beyond the seat itself. I think everyone who cares about Scottish energy in general is already Yes.
Energy transfer: ditto.
Something else: Definitely. Shoulder to shoulder with Netanyahu, a fortune in "gifts" for the missus from a dodgy millionaire, and the cloud of doom hovering over Starmer.
The SNP has done nothing to win folk back. This shift's all on Labour, as we see in England.
Anon at 3.47pm - I agree. The UK has been a sitting duck for a long time. If only we had politicians who want to and are able to take advantage of the situation.
Delete