There was a by-election double-header in Perth & Kinross yesterday, and as is often the case in the wacky world of STV by-elections, things are not quite as they seem. The Perth City North result is being billed as an SNP gain from Labour, but in fact it's a ward where the SNP were defending a huge lead and their vote share dropped. The Strathallan result is being billed as a Liberal Democrat gain from the Conservatives, and indeed there was a Conservative lead in the ward last time around - but on first preferences there was this time too. The Lib Dems only won on transfers.
Perth City North by-election first preference votes (26th September 2024):
SNP 44.7% (-10.5)
Labour 15.3% (-0.1)
Conservatives 14.4% (-5.1)
Reform UK 10.2% (n/a)
Alba 6.5% (+4.3)
Liberal Democrats 4.6% (+0.4)
Greens 4.2% (+0.8)
Labour 15.3% (-0.1)
Conservatives 14.4% (-5.1)
Reform UK 10.2% (n/a)
Alba 6.5% (+4.3)
Liberal Democrats 4.6% (+0.4)
Greens 4.2% (+0.8)
Strathallan by-election first preference votes (26th September 2024):
Conservatives 32.1% (-14.6)
Liberal Democrats 30.0% (+18.6)
SNP 17.4% (-17.5)
Labour 11.2% (n/a)
Reform UK 6.0% (n/a)
Greens 3.3% (-3.7)
Within minutes of the Perth City North result being announced, there was synchronised tweeting about it from John Swinney, Pete Wishart and Jim Fairlie, and in spite of the 10 point drop in the SNP vote, it's probably fair to say this is a solid result for the SNP. They didn't win a single local by-election anywhere in Scotland in the whole time Humza Yousaf was leader, so to win even the safest of wards by such a big margin must be regarded as pretty satisfying. Although Labour's vote in the ward has only declined very slightly, they're effectively stuck where they were in 2022 - when nationally they were in a distant second place and only just barely ahead of the third-placed Tories. You'd expect better from a party that won the general election in Scotland less than three months ago, and it bears out the message of recent opinion polls that Labour are suffering from Keir Starmer's unforced errors.
That said, Labour's result in Strathallan is actually OK in a ward that has been poor for them in the past - they didn't bother standing in 2022, but in 2017 they took only 5% of the vote, while in 2012 they took 10%. The SNP's showing in Strathallan is disappointing, there's no getting away from that, and it's hard to escape the impression that there must have been some kind of direct movement from the SNP to the Lib Dems, who did have a genuinely impressive result in spite of not quite topping the poll on first preferences.
If there's a common thread to the two by-elections, it's the strong showing from Reform UK, and that does look like an increasing problem as Holyrood 2026 comes into view. Unless Reform UK's Scotland-wide vote drifts downwards to 5% or below, they may win enough list seats to make it very hard for the pro-independence majority at Holyrood to be maintained, even if the SNP stay in first place.
If I was being Machiavellian, I'd say what is required is a pro-independence party on the radical right to take on Reform UK on their own terms. That won't happen, of course, so perhaps some shameless left-wing economic populism is the order of the day to try to win back the disaffected voters drifting to Reform.
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What I've seen from Reform voters is that they value Nationalism due to feeling disenfranchised, and don't care so much if it's left- or right-wing in flavour, Reform just happen to be right-wing.
ReplyDeleteThat's ripe soil for an independence party, but soil's the word when combined with blood; diametrically opposite to the nationalism espoused by the SNP during the independence campaign and later. Would drawing the voters away from Reform be worth strengthening that attack angle for unionists?
For a separate party, yes.
DeleteThe SNP wouldn’t touch it, and for once they’d be right: the No/Remainers they’re after are liberals who detest populism and fear its rise in England. If someone else went after it, the SNP could treat them with the same disdain we see comes so naturally to them towards Ash Regan!
But yes, there’s absolutely a place for an independence party that speaks to and for the right. They’d be hostile to Europe, big on oil, and have a lot to say about immigration. I wouldn’t like them but the constituency is definitely there.
Strategically: they really should exist. Every Reform voter who shows up in polls as being pro-independence is lost to us as things stand now. An authentically Scottish party which reflects their views would be an improvement to that hideously foreign bogeyman Farage.
Fair enough, the question wasn't rhetorical. The comment on how the SNP would treat them seems likely, and indeed is how the tories treated UKIP whilst in the end doing as UKIP wished.
DeleteReform is an appalling entity. Toxic. We must leave well alone.
DeleteAren't there by elections due any day now in these wards...
ReplyDeleteWard 06 Highland: Cromarty Firth
Ward 14 Highland: Inverness Central
I'll be honest my own parents , former independence supporters like what Reform are saying. They're good people but think immigration has gone too far. They think were becoming like the US and the Midlands, and think it will import as many problems as itll solve. Have It's a hard swallow.
ReplyDeleteAlba not a terrible showing actually.
Ironic, that they would vote Reform because we are becoming more like the US.
DeleteI think it's a reaction to what their seeing. Without scotland changing so obviously, it wouldn't be at the forefront.
DeleteAnon@12:00pm,
DeleteYou are a dickhead of the very highest order!
Do you seriously think people like you are going to encourage more people to support independence, coming out with hideous comments like that?
You are a very sad individual.
Do you seriously think people like you are going to encourage more people to support independence, coming out with hideous comments like that?
DeleteIt's a pretty safe bet that his intention is not to encourage support for independence
Anon at 12.00 is the lowest form of unionist. He will be on unionist forums right now calling out Indy as anti English.
DeleteAlba did well here too. 6% is their best result to date isn't it?
ReplyDeleteNo, it's not. They got 8% in Southside ward in 2022, Salmond rather desperately put out reams of propaganda about it and then was humiliated when the Alba candidate who got the not especially impressive result defected to the SNP about two days later.
DeleteRobert Reid was the Alba candidate in Perth and he'll now be on defection watch. Poor lad. McEleny will have him in handcuffs.
"McEleny will have him in handcuffs."
DeleteLOL. It's only funny because we all know it's true.
Alba are finished. Any obscure party can get 6% of the vote in a 20% turnout local by-election if they commit enough activists. What should worry them is that it's taken them this many attempts to manage it just once.
As the reform vote creeps up we are starting to pay the inevitable price for the SNP's failure and betrayal.
ReplyDeleteThe lesson of history is there for all to see. When deep crises go unsolved, by the failure of progressive parties to provide credible ways forward, then the populist and fascist right will fill the gap.
Whoever their voters may be they aren't led by someone's nice/decent mum and dad.
Sorry. 8:58 is one of mine . Forgot to change title.
ReplyDeleteJohn Swinney is certainly a factor as he has made a good job since stepping forward when Humza stood down. He is liked by ordinary people.
ReplyDeleteHave to say I’ve been impressed by Swinney so far. He’s certainly the steady hand needed in these difficult times.
DeleteHe's growing into the role and has shown sureness-of-touch. He made a great speech at conference. We can all agree.
DeleteDoes any of it matter now that the SNP, every one of them, has VOTED WITH THE UNIONIST PARTYS and voted down the defacto election policy, and therefor agains Scottish independence.
DeleteThey talk the talk BUT evidently DO NOT WALK THE WALK.
Father Ted Crilly
John Swinney contributed to a -10.5 decrease in the SNP's vote share?
DeleteHopefully he doesn't manage that kind of "success" across the country!
Oh but he will! And that’s his job, as well. Managed decline.
DeleteCobblers
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteScottish sub-sample, More in Common, field work 25 - 26 Sept, sample population (weighted) 103. Holyrood seat projection (same figures applied to Constituency & List), Election Polling Swingometer model.
ReplyDeleteCon 17% seats 26 (-5)
Lab 24% seats 35 (+13)
LibDem 11% seats 12 (+8)
RefUK 17% seats 23 (+23)
Green 4% seats 2 (-6)
SNP 24% seats 31 (-33)
Sample population size makes speculation all but worthless, but RefUK are showing strongly.
They are flourishing as our progressive parties are flailing. Thanks, careerists. You played the electorate for mugs and brought this on yourselves.
DeleteObviously a small sample, but makes grim reading none the less☹️
DeleteAnother poll showing no feasible majority coalition except Lab + Con + LD, and that's stretching the definition of feasible
DeleteProbably Labour would try to hobble on with just them and the Libs. What a mess
DeleteNot as bad as it is wi the charlatans we’ve got at present.
DeleteIt was a low turnout out which typically distorts things.
ReplyDeleteOne thing I do however think one can take from the results is that the SNP vote is going down and that they are finished as the party of power.
2026 will see to tjat
1,379.
ReplyDeleteThat's how few infiltrators could have swung the Tory leadership contest to Murdo Fraser. Less than one-quarter of Alba's high-tide mark membership.
I suspect even fewer were needed to swing the last Scottish Labour contest to Monica Lennon.
Both clearly more indy-friendly than the hardline unionists who beat them. 2026 is a while away, but one(maybe both!) of those present leaders is going to disappoint and be made to walk the plank.
Not sure the point of this comment. Is it seriously suggesting pro-indy people should have joined the Tories to vote for Murdo Fraser?
DeleteMurdo (if you’ll excuse my French) Fraser is a nasty wee so and so, but aye he could be helpful with his longstanding opposition to London rule within his own party. He’s no Scottish nationalist but he’s got a mischievous streak that could see him come good in the right circumstances.
Delete@11:53am - Correct.
DeleteFindlay is the establishment's boy, endorsed by Ross, Davidson and so forth. His job is to quietly get out of the way so Scottish Labour has the best chance of soaking up the unionist vote for 2026. Hard luck for the 16 MSPs who didn't back him, most are doomed.
Murdo, whatever you say about the bastard, wouldn't do that. He would have fought, fought, fought. The UK Tories, Scottish Labour, UK Labour. Even the SNP!
Re reform UK, perhaps snp should stand in England as SNP Scotland.
ReplyDeleteI have long advocated (to no one in particular) that the SNP should run in Berwick upon Tweed. No reason not to. It would draw welcome media attention to one of the most forgotten corners of England, and give us a presence on the border.
DeleteIndyref for Berwick:
DeleteShould Berwick upon Tweed be in Scotland or England?
I’d love to see them get the 2014 spirit and make that choice.
If a British prime minister must resign if they lose Scotland, how much must they lose if they lose a little corner off England? A finger? Their facial hair?
DeleteThat’s the magic of STV by-elections. It doesn’t matter who’s resigning, the winner takes all. Without re-electing the whole trio of councillors, it’s essentially just FPTP with fancier ballot.
ReplyDeleteAnon was replying to a bogus "correction", which I've deleted because there was nothing to correct. The blogpost correctly states that the Perth result was billed as an "SNP gain from Labour" even though the SNP were defending a huge lead in the ward and their vote dropped significantly. Indeed there was a 5% swing from SNP to Labour.
DeleteThey should use d’Hondt. Divide the SNP’s vote by 3 then conduct the round. Transfers go at full value. Just use the incumbent parties seats as a divider on each round.
ReplyDeleteI believe there is a treaty between Scotland and England requiring Berwick to return to Berwickshire but the English ignores the treaty
ReplyDeleteI would be interested to know the make up of that reform vote in Scotland. I think it is driven by British nationalism. Is it mainly English incomers?
ReplyDelete