The recognition of Palestine by three more European countries is a big moment, and is likely to create a domino effect

In the western mainstream media, one of the most common observations about the Russian aggression against Ukraine is that it backfired horribly on Putin, who was trying to stop NATO expanding to include Ukraine, but instead inadvertently caused Sweden and Finland to join NATO, which wouldn't otherwise have happened.  The reality is that Putin probably wasn't as bothered about that side-effect as was assumed, because being technically outside NATO had no effect on the fact that Sweden and Finland were already within the Euro-Atlantic orbit and both had been EU members since 1995.  Whereas Ukraine's basic orientation was and is still in dispute.

But because the "backfire" narrative was so popular, you'd think it would occur to the same media to point out that Israel's atrocities in Gaza have backfired by leading Ireland, Norway and Spain to announce today that they are recognising the State of Palestine.  Instead, the former Sky News political editor Adam Boulton moronically tweeted "terrorism works", providing one of those instant moments of clarity when you suddenly realise exactly who a person is and why they were wholly unsuited to hold the position they did.  It implies that he believes that the Palestinian people are a terrorist people or that Israel's campaign of destruction has been a proportionate response to a terrorist act.

If you insist on viewing today's decision through the prism of what "works" and what doesn't, it would be more appropriate to conclude that it shows "genocide has a penalty" or that "stoicism in the face of genocide carries a reward".  But the recognition of sovereignty and self-determination should really have nothing to do with "rewarding" Palestine or "punishing" Israel, it's simply about accepting an inalienable right of the Palestinian people which exists on an equal basis to the equivalent right of the Israeli people on their own territory.  The State of Palestine was declared in 1988, so today's three countries could have recognised it at any point since then.  Better late than never.

It's interesting that Israel is attacking the Irish decision as an assault on Israeli "sovereignty".  As I understand it, countries that recognise the State of Palestine do so on the basis that the territory covered is the West Bank and Gaza, with East Jerusalem left an open question just as recognition of Israel generally leaves West Jerusalem as an open question.  So unless Israel is claiming the West Bank and Gaza as its own sovereign possessions, what's the problem?  That's probably a question that answers itself.

Today feels like a big moment.  It increases the number of EU member states which recognise Palestine from nine to eleven, but it looks as if eight of the previous nine had made the decision prior to joining the EU, and most had done so when they were communist states.  So the number of countries that have chosen to recognise Palestine from within the EU has just trebled, and that's likely to create a domino effect.  Whenever an EU country happens to be governed by a left-wing or progressive administration, there's now a fair chance it will recognise Palestine.