Wednesday, May 22, 2024

Thoughts on the implications of the election timing

I doubt if Rishi Sunak was primarily thinking about Scotland or the SNP when he selected a surprisingly early election date, but on the face of it the timing couldn't be much worse.  The SNP have only just received their worst poll results since before the indyref ten years ago.  An election three months ago wouldn't have been as bad because the SNP would have gone into it level pegging with Labour, and an election in four or five months' time might not have been as bad because the chaotic end of Yousaf's leadership might have faded from voters' memories and the status quo ante in the polls might have been restored.

So on the face of it, this is the perfect storm.  The only consolation I can think of is that John Swinney seems to be enjoying some sort of honeymoon with voters, with both of the last two polls suggesting he is more popular than the other party leaders.  That may be the SNP's best hope of clawing their way back into contention.  But if the worst happens, I suppose the indy movement will just have to draw a line under it, allow Labour to own everything that goes wrong at Westminster, and use that to plot a resurgence for Yes parties in 2026.

57 comments:

  1. If Swinney rejected identity politics ASAP and campaigned hard for independence (as a principle, not simply to get rid of the Tories) then the SNP could still come out on top in Scotland.

    He won't though. The SNP campaign will be lacklustre.

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    1. Dunino Dave@6-10pm
      To quote Billy Connolly...." Oh ye think so pal?"

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  2. Like the Tories, the SNP have had their day.
    Time for change.

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    1. Substituting a blue tory with a red tory is not change
      vote SNP on Independence Day!

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    2. Things
      Can only get Blairer
      Can only get Blairer
      Now I’ve found you
      Can only get
      Can only get

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    3. Which beach is Starmer going to do a 'Kinnock' on I wonder?

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    4. Maybe I’m not old enough to get the reference, but if you’re talking about Kinnock’s epic failure to win: that would be the biggest polling miss of all time. It’s like wishful thinking Tories thinking Blair would miss the target in 1997 just because Tories Always Win.

      Truss sunk them. That was their Black Wednesday. Apparently economic scares are what it takes to kill decades long Tory governments now.

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    5. I think he's talking about Kinnock falling over on the beach when he did a press call at the Labour conference. That was early in his leadership, though, it wasn't during an election campaign.

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    6. John Swinney will gain seats for the SNP, Mark my words.

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    7. You'll be in hiding on July 5th. Mark my words.

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    8. You'll be in the toilets on July 5th, mark my words.

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  3. The SNP top team did well in terms of putting Swinney in post. He is popular.

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    1. Yes. The opinion polls indicate he has a much higher approval rating than any other party leader.

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    2. And when the party’s reduced to less than a dozen MPs, he can resign with dignity this time.

      It’s rare for politicians to get a second chance to handle catastrophe with grace.

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  4. So hang on Yousaf had us on level pegging? And now we're ten behind?

    Almost like getting rid of a leader, even for a better one, makes people think there's something ought with the party. You don't change just before an election. 101.

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    1. Those could be rogue poles.

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    2. "You don't change just before an election. 101."

      Actually what you don't do is treat your coalition partners like dirt in the way that Yousaf did. It's not as if the SNP had much choice after that, Yousaf's position was untenable by then. But it's not the change of leader that caused the SNP slump, it's what happened before that. Try as you might, Yousaf is the author of the SNP's problems

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    3. Those rogue polls have a lot to answer for. Almost as much as the bonkers Bulgarians.

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    4. Prof Curtice just been on BBC stating a 5 point gap between Slab and SNP......interesting.

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    5. Labour’s got a mountain to climb, in both Scotland and England. But the polls suggest they should be able to do it in both. It’ll be an exciting election for them.

      Just a shame they’re the enemy of independence. I like an underdog story…

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  5. I genuinely like John Swinney and think he’s made a very promising start to his tenure.

    But the SNP need to be punished for putting Yousaf in Bute House, for bringing the Greens into government and for the failures of late-stage Sturgeon.

    They will get a battering and they deserve it.

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    1. Indeed. Fully deserved. They can whistle for my vote.

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    2. Well better vote for your local yoon then eh?
      Aye right!
      vote SNP on Independence Day.

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    3. Maybe I’ll get it right up you and vote for the only non-SNP option available that I know about so far here, and vote Green! 😁

      I’d be boaking while I did it, the state they’re in over gender identity, though.

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    4. your prerogative yoon.

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    5. And my right to decide where my vote goes, as a life long supporter of independence who is utterly disgusted by the disgrace that is the SNP in its current state. Hell mend them.

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    6. The SNP candidate IS the local Yoon.

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    7. ...." a lifelong supporter of independence..." lol
      and I'm Genghis Khan.

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    8. Life long supporter of independence ! 🤣

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  6. Mr Kelly, at least with a quick election Labour will start losing votes sooner, giving full time for Indy parties to get votes by the next Holyrood election

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    1. True. Swift WM and Holyrood elections would be catastrophic for the SNP. The further apart they are, politically, the better.

      As for Starmer’s honeymoon: we shall see. It depends what game the media want to play with him. They let Blair bask in glory for several years.

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  7. Are any Alba candidates standing in Edinburgh seats? I hope to have someone I can stand voting for.

    Best of luck to the party!

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    1. Here’s the list so far:

      https://www.albaparty.org/alba_candidates_2024

      No Edinburgh seats yet, but there’s still time before nominations close I think.

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    2. Please vote SNP, it is better than ALBA.

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    3. Aye...join Big Eck in the bunker...'The Last days of Alba.'

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  8. Might be worth putting out a few reminders that you need a Photo ID to vote now, don't be like Boris Johnson and get turned away at the polling station!

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    1. Lots of people won't need their photo ID as they will be away on holiday given that it's the first week of the school holidays.

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  9. Since SNP and Alba MPs are desperate to remain as devolutionists in Westminster abstaining on July 4th may be the only way of getting them out of that place.

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    1. I’m going to be abstaining for the first time in my life. It doesn’t feel good, I know my local SNP candidate quite well, and like him as a person, but his blind adherence to Sturgeon SNP doctrine means I can’t vote for him. Shame cos he’d have probably beaten Dougie Ross if he’d stood in 2019 instead of the wet blanket I was out campaigning for.

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    2. SNP -- United for Independence. We must all unite behind the SNP or get Labour.

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    3. We need Labour governments in both Westminster and Holyrood.
      Nationalist charlatans out!

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    4. The Branch rules OK

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  10. This will be in the middle of the Euros - the day before the first Quarter Finals. If England or Scotland do well/ badly - wonder how that will affect the mood.

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    1. It will be important for all of us to put aside any concerns and vote SNP.

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    2. The 4th July is a 'rest' day in the Euros.

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  11. John Swinney isn't standing for election. I guess he might get to do a TV ad and that might be a very bad idea. On the bright side, probably no-one will be questioning him on his spell as education secretary.

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  12. I can confidently predict the SNP will get between 5 and 57 seats.

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  13. I saw someone suggest some of the opinion polls were misleading
    /dodgy based on English by election voting patterns, if so there could be all to play for.

    Although the polls have been bad for the SNP, nothing like an election campaign to fire people up, could be better now than an agonisingly slow summer and autumn in the doldrums.

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    1. The rotten to the core SNP have had their day. They will lose a shed load of seats, and deservedly so.
      Plus, for the sake of this country, these nationalist charlatans need to be out of power in 2026.

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    2. Funny how you can't any more tell difference between anonymous MI5/unionist trolls trashing the snp as unionist traitors or anonymous MI5/unionist trolls trashing Alba as unionist traitors

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    3. That's because there is no difference between Alba and unionists, and if the SNP do lose the general election by a lot both Alba and unionists will say it's the fault of the SNP as though Alba and unionists had nothing to do with it

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    4. Dr Jim at 2.11am - you should go to bed earlier at your age and you may make more sense when you post.

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    5. IfS should you no be in school ?

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    6. He's probably been excluded.

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    7. Does IFS fancy the guy or is he just stalking him

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    8. I've looked at WGD he never mentions IFS name or SGP so what's the problem?

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    9. IFS.. bowler hat, orange flute, bang the drum!

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