Redfield & Wilton have produced a new GB-wide poll with a much larger than usual sample size, meaning the Scottish subsample is roughly the size you'd expect for a full-scale Scottish poll. Whether the weightings have been applied in the same way as they would be for a full-scale poll, I don't know, but for what it's worth these are the numbers: Labour 35%, SNP 28%, Conservatives 22%, Reform UK 7%, Liberal Democrats 5%, Greens 2%.
That would mean the SNP have made no progress since the last full-scale Scottish poll from the same firm, which also had a 7-point Labour lead, although I suppose the other way of looking at it is that things haven't got any worse. If anything is making me sceptical, it's the Tory number - is it really plausible that the Tory percentage vote in Scotland is roughly the same as in the rest of Britain? If so, it would be the first time that's happened in many decades.
* * *
I've profiled the constituency of Aberdeen North for The National - you can read the piece HERE.
The Reform number looks strangely high too, especially if the Tories are on 22%. I'm not convinced.
ReplyDeleteThe SNP have no need to worry Dr Jim says they are all fake. Mind you Jimbo assured us that the UK GE would happen in Nov this year.
ReplyDeleteTell me, when will you be mine? Tell me, quando quando quando? I long for the day when you with the joyousness of a jovial Joanne Lamont aligns with my merriment à la Merry Mags Curran. We could be a celestial dream pairing and swap our union jack lingerie.
DeleteHe lives in your head rent free
DeleteSo does your tongue. 😉
DeleteBearing in mind that the poll yesterday with a 5 point deficit can be seen as encouraging this poll is in the same ballpark.
ReplyDeleteBroadly encouraging for SNP with all to play for.
Swinney doing well so far and all possibility of a recovery.
The high tory figure shows the need to vote SNP.
I mean the Tories got 25.1% in Scotland in 2019 but I would be surprised if they've only lost 3% since then (unless there's tactical voting at play). I'd also be surprised if the Lib Dem vote has reduced from 9.5% in 2019 to 5% now. You'd imagine they would actually do slightly better this time.
ReplyDeleteThough if the Tory number is inflated in this poll I don't think there's a lot of Tory & SNP overlap. If anything a collapsed Tory would would likely go to Reform & Labour.
Douglas Ross is perhaps quite popular in the Conservative-adjacent electoral space.
ReplyDeleteIf charges are brought against NS in the next couple of weeks, as the Tory press are salivating about, I wonder if it would actually backfire. The timing would be a big shot in the arm for conspiracy theories
ReplyDeleteSkier says any charges will be immediately dropped after the election. Mind you he is normally wrong.
DeleteNote to anon at 6.01pm - no room for Skier.
DeleteThere will be conspiracy theories regardless tbh.
DeleteEither 'The SNP have got their mates in Police Scotland to drop the charges, brushing it all under the carpet. Police Scotland are corrupt to core!"
Or 'MI5 have managed to get their operatives in Police Scotland to press ahead with these fabricated charges. Police Scotland are corrupt to the core!"
Don't listen to anything IFS says, he's saturated with hatred of anyone that supports the SNP or independence
DeleteSo says Dr Jim at 7.11pm - Jimbo why do you keep posting as an anon? Coward.
DeleteYou are a nicophant and Nicola comes first, SNP second and independence a distant third. I told you this mess would happen years ago but you and others just kept on trolling. Others saw sense and changed their minds. Others so embarrassed at how they had been fooled disappeared and no longer post.
Keaton - the Lord Advocate Wolfe, the polis and COPFS haven't done their credibility much good in recent years with a range of admitted malicious prosecutions. Have they cleaned up their act - who knows but the ongoing situation where the Lord Advocate is appointed by the FM, is part of the Scotgov cabinet and also controls COPFS is hardly an ideal situation at any time but more so now.
DeleteThe case against Peter Murrell will never get as far as a court, and any charges against N S, if ever brought, will have a similar fate. The political pressure will remain on Police Scotland for a long as it takes to destroy the SNP. Let’s remember the multiple poster on here had the police in NS’s pocket up until the point when they turned up at her house with a big tent. No idea what his current imaginings are, but we are still waiting for his explanation of how he got his “in her pocket” conspiracy so wrong. I’ll use the initials NS to differentiate from other anons.
DeleteAnonymous at 9.55am - the multiple poster on SGP is anonymous. If you are really wanting to talk about me don't be a coward like all the other trolls. Now the point you make is wrong - only you know your motivation. I never said the polis were " in her pocket " You say "no idea what his current imaginings are". Try looking at the post above at 8.08pm. I posted comments like 8.08pm above in the past. Which is not what you are saying. So you are either talking about someone else or if it is addressed to me you are just plain wrong.
DeleteIs it right for the Lord Advocate who is in charge of prosecutuions to be appointed by the FM and be a member of the Scotgov as well. I don't think so. What say you anon?
Now you say with confidence that the charges will definitely be dropped. Like Skier who also says this - just how do you know this will be the case. Are you in the polis or just Skier posting on SGP again but too scared to use his Skier moniker. Or will Swinney put pressure on the Lord Advocate? Is that why you are so confident there will be no court case?
I'll ask you what I ask all the trolls - where is the ring fence with the £600k?
I know because I understand the evidential requirements to prove embezzlement and the numerous legal challenges to a prosecution such as this. The appointment of the Lord Advocate has always been contentious. Nothing new there, although if you had actual experience of the legal process of prosecution you would not be making your misguided and uninformed comments. But hey freedom of speech, knock yourself out speculating and talking nonsense.
DeleteClearly anon I have never had actual experience of being charged with a crime and prosecuted unlike you.
DeleteI note you do not answer the question where is the ring fence and the £600 k. Maybe if you have a criminal record that disnae bother you.
You do not give your opinion on the Lord Advocate - you just say it has always been contentious.
You posted wrong points about me in your original post. Now you claim I am misguided and uninformed but didnae say about what. You must be a criminal because no lawyer would be so poor in putting their case. Best just hide as an anonymous so nobody can hold you to account for your errors.
I'm guessing you are Skier - he always claims to be an expert in everything.
" I'll use the initials NS to differentiate from other anons." Well that didnae last long did it Skier. WGD numpty.
Aye Skier ( like Dr Jim ) has run back to the dughouse to be back among his fellow doggers. Skier you have been wrong about everything over the last 4 years but like Dr Jim you cannae live with it.
DeleteCertainly not Skier and did not say I had criminal convictions. But you know that. Your M O appears to be personal insult, twisting of people’s words, and down right untruthfulness. If and when you have actual evidence of wrongdoing and that £600,000 is missing, by which of course you mean stolen , let’s have it. You don’t have evidence? You are speculating? You think your opinion is evidence? Surprise surprise. You are dismissed troll boy. Jog on.
DeleteIf that poll is accurate this would be the result in terms of seats apparently:
ReplyDeleteLabour: 32 Seats
Tories: 13 Seats
SNP: 7 Seats
Lib Dems: 5 Seats
And are you still planning to "help" that situation by abstaining?
DeleteI mean the SNP's electoral strategy hasn't changed much in the past few days tbh. If anything they've talked a lot more about keeping the Tories out than independence.
DeleteWell if the seat numbers end up being anything like that, independence will, without doubt, be off the table for a long time.
DeleteThis is why we must all vote for the strongest pro indy party in each constituency.
DeleteIs that a "yes", Scott? You're still planning to make things worse by abstaining?
DeleteI haven't been convinced that voting SNP at this stage is the best way forward.
DeleteI actually agree with Alex Salmond when he recently said "You can do the same thing over and over again expecting a different result. That's what the SNP is doing, which is madness" and “relying on Keir Starmer to allow a referendum” is “ludicrous”.
If you genuinely want people to return to the SNP you'll have to convince them why he and others are wrong. People need to feel positive when casting their vote and believe that they're voting for positive change. A desperation or blind panic motivator is destined to fail.
Are you convinced that Labour MPs are the "best way forward" for independence, Scott? If so, have you gone completely tonto?
DeleteHe obviously has, he hasn't been making any sense at all. Some sort of grudge against the SNP that is blinding him to the obvious.
DeleteCredit to Scott for not hiding behind the anonymous crowd. Way too many anonymous trolls like Dr Jim - cowards.
DeleteDifferent anon here. Scott is right. The “Tory Free by ‘93” SNP has to learn its lesson sometime. Better in this pointless UK parliament than waiting to sink at Holyrood where something is actually at stake.
DeleteNo indy on this ballot, folks. Don’t pretend you think your fellow Scots button up at the back. Everyone and their dug knows it’s fully off the table with this leadership.
If it leads to reforms in the SNP: Absolutely. At the very least it changes the status quo and we'll all have have an opponent to unite against.
DeleteIf you simultaneously believe that voting SNP won't move independence forward but that they need to be voted in regardless to 'keep the dream alive' that's literally just arguing for permanent stagnation.
We've had a decade of that already. I really don't want another decade of it as I know that the longer it doesn't happen & the longer that I'm strung along the more pissed off and
bitter I'll become.
The electorate will also start to think: Independence isn't happening, how can we improve other issues in the country with that reality? We're in the 'Boy Who Cried Wolf' scenario as we're at the stage where people simply don't believe the SNP anymore and that's the big problem they need to address.
I also disagree with James when he said in another post that once elected Labour MPs will become entrenched, that's forgetting that despite the big drop in support for the SNP support for independence has pretty much remained steady throughout all of the turmoil of the past few years. That support won't just disappear. If anything an electoral defeat can motivate a Party or movement to reform and come back stronger. That will obviously take time but I'd rather put the work in to rebuild than be in exactly the same position at the next General Election and then the next & the next.
I'm of the same view, Scott. The SNP is no longer an independence party and they will not be getting my vote. Independence is dead in the water anyway as long as we keep sending these charlatans to London to live the high life.
DeleteYeah, me too. My divorce from the SNP has been a drawn out saga with a lot of soul searching and self doubt but ultimately a conviction that we have irreconcilable differences over indy. Realistically, that's not going to change in six weeks unless the SNP make a genuine attempt to convince me otherwise.
DeleteWith the greatest of respect to James, I think he underestimates the depth of frustration, even anger, many of us feel towards the SNP. For me, it's got to the point where I feel Labour can do a better job of getting us towards indy by highlighting the negatives of Unionism than the SNP's insipid indifference. I won't be voting Unionist myself, obviously, but in the absence of an alternative to the SNP, for the first time in my life I'll stay at home on election day.
Same here. I’ve voted since 1999 when I came of voting age. Always SNP in FPTP, and Green or SSP or Alba in PR. That perfect streak will come to an end in a few weeks. Finally I’m scunnered.
DeleteIt was a decades long path getting here.
Yeah I also think it's worth being said that I didn't just wake up one day and be anti-SNP either.
DeleteWith the slight exception of voting #SNP1Alba2 in the last Scottish Parliament election I've voted SNP for my whole adult life (I'm 34 now) and before I could vote I actually tried to convince my parents to vote SNP but at that time they would just say "Don't be ridiculous, the SNP are a wasted vote" (many felt that way before 2007).
The referendum campaign was genuinely one of the best times of my life as I felt like I was part of something bigger than myself and the SNP felt like my political home, the activists in my local branch were like my other family. It took a lot to move me to where I am now and it both saddens and angers me that I've reached this point.
It won't be too long before we look back in wonder at the above few comments in which supposed independence supporters plot the suicide of their own movement, and chirpily agree with each other about what a splendid idea it is.
DeleteAnd that gets to the crux of the issue: The SNP and the independence movement aren't one and the same.
DeleteThe SNP doesn't own the independence movement and the independence movement doesn't need the SNP to survive.
When a party loses its core vote, who’s the problem: the people or the party?
DeleteScottish Labour knows exactly how you loyalists feel. “Those ungrateful b*****d voters left us in the lurch, the traitorous c***s! They’ll be sorry!”
Anon @10.04pm Half of Scots want independence. That support isn't going anywhere regardless of this election result. To suggest the Yes movement will melt away if the SNP lose badly, when they've shown no serious interest in indy in a decade, is a nonsensical argument.
DeleteFor many of us it feels like the Yes movement has been functioning in opposition of the disinterested SNP for ten years anyway.
Anon10:04 I think the only suicide you can 'plot' is your own and the SNP has done a fine job of doing so since 2014. Thank goodness for that as it needs to be put out of our misery.
DeletePrecisely how the SNP—under this continuity leadership—handles a firm spanking from the electorate will be crucial to their future.
DeleteIf 2017’s “dial it down on Indy” setback is anything to go by, they’ll wince in disbelief and welcome the anti-independence narrative of the London media. Do that again, after a much harder drubbing, and they set off on the path to annihilation.
July will be a big month well after the night of the 4th.
So many Britnats claiming to be recently disappointed independence supporters. With so many of them it's a mystery why Yes didn't gain about 80% in 2014.
DeleteWhen I first started posting on SGP years ago I would use the term Britnat. I was told that I must be a unionist because no independence supporter ever uses that term. Funny how things change Beverly.
Delete@Bervely I guess that's one way to go I suppose: Deny that there's a problem, delude yourself into believing that everything is fine and then act surprised or spout conspiracy when the SNP suffer a massive electoral defeat.
DeleteDidn't you know? We're all liars who have never supported independence and are only here as part of an MI5 plot to demoralise the SNP support. It's the default position for the party loyalists as it's easier than facing the truth that they have been lied to for ten years.
DeleteSNP probably need to be ahead of Labour to have much chance in central belt.
ReplyDeleteAre some SNP voters going to Reform I wonder?
Seems unlikely.
DeleteThought I saw UK figures for that survey showing SNP 3% up 1. Is that the same poll? What is the significance of up 1?
ReplyDeleteThe underlying change could be fractional. They only use integers.
DeleteSure, but that would be upward. It would be useful to have that confirmed.
DeleteFirst of all 6.42 is right. Second of all the change is statistically insignificant. Third James has presented the figures for Scotland which are regionally weighted according to RW and these show not much change on the last RW full Scotland.
DeleteAlright folks, here's the scoop: Labour's leading with 35%, but SNP's holding strong at 28%.
ReplyDeleteWe're in a solid second place, and with a push, we can overtake Labour. Let's hustle, connect with voters, and turn these numbers in our favour!
Or you could say: Labour in the lead with 35%, SNP make no progress in closing that gap since the last poll from the same firm.
DeleteYou misspelled poop.
DeleteDifficult to take any comfort from this poll.
ReplyDeleteWho would have thought, a few years ago, we’d be where we are now.
I understand some have been unhappy with the SNP in recent years, but surely the time has come to get behind the party. We face potential disaster otherwise.
Nah. Let them flail a bit in cold water first to prove to them the only way to survive is swim.
DeleteMore like, if we let them, they'll drain the pond to ensure there's nowhere to swim.
Delete" Who would have thought, a few years ago, we'd be where we are now." Me.
DeleteI’m with you on this Jeff.
DeleteIt’s absolutely nuts the way some are talking on here. They just don’t seem to be able to grasp the damage they could be doing to the independence cause by shunning the SNP.
And you don't seem able to grasp the extent of people's disillusionment with the SNP.
DeleteIf we want things to change SNP supporters really should be looking over all the issues these people are raising and making an effort to get their Party to address them head on.
DeleteThat might be more effective than just trying to guilt trip them into voting SNP as that's unlikely to be effective.
Top 4 articles on the SNP webstie - https://www.snp.org/
Delete" Labour and the Tories are full of talk – it’s the SNP who will stand up for rural Scotland - Posted on 27 May, 2024"
"With Starmer doubling down on support for Tory welfare policies, it’s just more of the same - Posted on 27 May, 2024"
"This election is a turning point: only the SNP will stand up for Scotland - Posted on 24 May, 2024"
"John Swinney launches the SNP’s 2024 election campaign - Posted on 24 May, 2024"
Vote SNP to be stronger for Scotland at Westminster for the next 5 years?
No Thanks. Who cares about voting for utter futility?
I WILL vote SNP if it's INDEPENDENCE INDEPENDENCE INDEPENDENCE
Still waiting, tap tap of impatient foot ...
Stronger for Scotland my backside.
Maybe they heard “Molotov cocktails” and thought what a scrumptious drink…
DeleteThe good thing about it is, if it continues into the last couple of weeks the SNP will have absolutely nothing to lose by completely changing their strategy.
ReplyDeleteLike suddenly declaring that the UK General Election IS a de facto referendum for Independence. Which they'll need to do to get my vote, otherwise I'll be spoiling my postal vote in the last day or two.
I’d like to see that. Swinney is the last man on earth to make a Hail Mary pass, though. He’ll stay and salute the portrait of the queen as the ship goes down around him. Glug glug Honest Gohn.
DeleteYES is at 48%. The SNP are at 28%.
DeleteIs there anyone in the SNP who can join the dots?
Yesindyref2: is that YES 48% from this RW poll?
DeleteSowing doubt again. Quack
DeleteDoubt? No, duck, them’s the facts.
DeleteCowardly Anonymous at 10:01 PM
DeleteTo join the dots look for the number "1". Then the number "2", which is the number after "1". Draw a line between the two. Then look for the number "3". Can you count to 10 by the way? Don't be ashamed if you can't.
Probably more relevant to explain the other direction, given current circumstances.
DeleteI don't see an SNP strategy.
DeleteThey look like everyone but the Tories, but without policies about things people are concerned about. The new-normal major disconnect between the SNP and people in favour of independence has made them (look?) irrelevant.
Colin McKay (STV NEWS) @6pm reported a brand new Survation poll where the gap was 4points if I caught him correctly.
ReplyDeleteCan anyone else confirm?
You're correct.
DeleteNew Scotland Only Westminster poll, Survation 23-27 May (changes vs 14-20 Feb):
Lab ~ 36% (+3).
SNP ~ 32% (-6).
Con ~ 17% (+2).
LD ~ 9% (+1).
Though the same poll found Keir Starmer to be the most popular leader of a Westminster party in Scotland, with a net favourability rating of +3%. Sarwar stood at -3% and Swinney was on -7%.
Encouraging that the gap is now down to just 4%.
DeleteALL TO PLAY FOR!
UK wide polls aren't showing much movement since the election was called. The last R&W poll for instance showed 23% Tory, 47% Labour. This one shows 23% Tory, 46% Lab.
ReplyDeleteSurvation dropped the Tories by 3%, Lab by 1%
Deltapoll, no change
Opinium actually gave the Tories a 2% bump and dropped Lab by the same amount
Yougov bumped the Tories by 1% and dropped Labour by 2%
MiC, Tory no change, Labour up by 1%
I know the start of campaigns don't matter, that manifestos and leader debates are yet to come, etc.. Still, it seems a little surprising that such a terrible launch has had no apparent effect at all.
Ignoring Scotland for a moment it's a rather unusual election for the UK as very few people are actually inspired to vote for Labour.
DeleteLabour aren't going to win the election 1997 style, the Tories are going to lose it and Labour just wins as a consequence.
I don't recall the last time the electorate wanted to punish the Governing Party to this extent. It's rather crazy.
The Lib Dems as coalition partners getting battered in 2015. From 57 seats to 8 because of the tuition fees U turn.
DeleteOddly, Douglas Ross is the most working-class Scottish political leader by a mile. Not just a working-class upbringing, a lower-class one. It may resonate with the benefitachi.
ReplyDeleteYes. I know he gets a lot of stick and isn't the media darling his predecessor was, but he is good at what he does to he fair to him.
DeleteHe’s never fair to anybody just a small minded too wee too poor Unionist looking for scraps from his colonial masters
DeleteStrange way to spell "fair".
DeleteHe’s a nasty wee cringing toady. He even gives linesmen a bad name. 😉
DeleteHe is a dishonest little turd who sponges two large incomes from public funds, contributes the sum total of SFA to Scotland and forgets to declare private income. Celtic fans got it right.
DeleteAndrew Brigden just told you why Sunak is reintroducing conscription. Your going to be fighting Russia...unlucky for some.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.bitchute.com/video/tKSrIkAZ3i8p/
I cant believe any poll that suggests the Tories in Scotland only marginally behind the SNP
ReplyDeleteIt’s not so much Tory strength as catastrophic weakness for the SNP. When you fall on your arse, even they will catch up with you.
Delete