Monday, May 27, 2024

First Scottish poll of the campaign has the SNP trailing - but not by as much as the pre-campaign polls

We have the first full-scale Scottish poll of the general election campaign, and I'm not quite sure whether to be encouraged by it or not.  A few months ago we'd have regarded a five-point Labour lead over the SNP as a terrible starting-point, but it's not as bad as the recent YouGov and Redfield & Wilton polls, and thus offers the SNP a fighting chance of coming out of this election with an OK result.

Scottish voting intentions for the UK general election (More in Common, 22nd-25th May 2024):

Labour 35%
SNP 30%
Conservatives 17%
Liberal Democrats 10%
Reform UK 4%
Greens 3%

It's worth making the point that the poll suggests the SNP may be reverting to an old problem they thought they'd resolved thanks to Nicola Sturgeon, because they're almost level-pegging among men but ten points behind among women.  Their own internal polling will give them ideas about how best to counter any gender voting gap, but I'd have thought putting Kate Forbes to the fore of the campaign might help.

Some of the supplementary results from the poll are moderately encouraging for the SNP.  34% of respondents say that John Swinney is an improvement on Humza Yousaf, compared with only 5% who think he's a downgrade on the previous leader.  There's also no clear advantage for Labour on trust issues, at least not across the board.  Labour are a bit more trusted than the SNP on the NHS, jobs and housing, but the SNP are more trusted on the wars in Ukraine and Palestine, on climate change, on independence, and weirdly also on the transgender debate.

Almost 80% of respondents say "it's time for a change", and yet only 45% think Keir Starmer represents change, with 55% believing he represents "more of the same". Now that sense of realism could be very useful indeed - except for the fact that John Swinney is seen in much the same way.  Perhaps voters needs a reminder from the SNP that independence is a far, far more radical change than anything Starmer is proposing.

Voters are slightly more clear on where John Swinney stands than they are with Starmer, although the difference isn't statistically significant. But on basic approval ratings, this is yet another poll showing Swinney (-2) with a very clear advantage over both Starmer (-10) and Anas Sarwar (-11).

208 comments:

  1. Encouraging poll for SNP when compared to yougov.

    Quite a narrow difference all told, showing the importance of voting for SNP.

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    1. Agree. On these poll figures people can clearly see it can only be SNP as your best guarantee.

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    2. You try telling that to most Scots. The nation is scunnered with the lot of them, their student antics, revolving leaders and deranged policies. They’re done.

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  2. Halved the deficit almost immediately since the election was called. Real progress is being made clearly, although not perfect. Their is still time to turn this into a healthy snp lead imo.

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    1. Well said agree fully.

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    2. Halved the deficit almost immediately since the election was called.

      Based on what? According to Wikipedia this is the first time More in Common have conducted a Scottish poll

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    3. This is an English based and probably biased polling company. I'd be cautious on reading too much into these polling results.

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  3. What about Alba and ISP?

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    1. They would come under others at 1%.

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    2. Might be worth a comment in the commentary?

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    3. Exactly. Amounts to a unionist vote. Incoming.

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  4. John Swinney has had a great campaign so far. He has hit the ground running.

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    1. He has certainly had an excellent few weeks that is for sure.

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    2. Blowing them all out the water with his sureness of touch

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    3. He is hits the ground running every day according to this guy. He must be in John O' Groats by now. 🀑

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    4. Is this a troll post?

      As the SNP's campaign launch was literally overshadowed by the Michael Matheson affair. It's blinkered to say that he's had an excellent few weeks.

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    5. 100% agree, his start to his tenure has been ridiculously good. Other than Nicola he is already proving to be the best first minister Scotland has had. His experience is proving to be a real vote winner from the people I've spoken to.

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    6. Sorry Declan, but I've a horrible feeling you only talk to yourself in the mirror. Enthusiasm is one thing but your hyperbole is embarrassing. Tone it down a bit.

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    7. Anon at 9:30, I'm entitled to my opinion about something I am very passion about. I don't abuse others so if you disagree with my comment that's fine but please refrain from abusing me.

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    8. Ok Declan at 9.41pm - you are entitled to your opinion but if you don't want to be ridiculed why not try explaining why you think that someone like Swinney who has only been in the job for a few weeks " is proving to be the best first minister Scotland has had. " ( except for Sturgeon in your opinion). Not asking much is it?

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    9. Where's the abuse? I don't believe you have spoken to all these people and that they all share your unalloyed enthusiasm for John Swinney. That is MY opinion and I'm entitled to it. You pulled the same act of playing the victim the other day both with James and some other poster who you bizarrely asserted was homophobic. If you can't take criticism maybe you're not cut out for political debate.

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    10. I don't think John Swinney enthuses people but he is trusted by them. The SNP leader and his deputy are genuinely honest and open individuals and I think that more than a few people appreciate that type of leadership.

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    11. Describing someone's heartfelt opinion as "embarrassing" and claiming that I talk to myself in the mirror. I think most people would take some degree of offence to those comments. I've never had any issue with James, we might disagree on some issues but I respect him. The other poster that you are referring has made homophobic comments in the past, if you are ok with that then that's your choice.

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    12. That's fair enough although I don't share your opinion. My point re Declan was to curb the over the top stuff and make his point without the hyperbole. Why that constitutes 'abuse', I'll leave to him to explain but, as I've mentioned, he has form for playing the victim card.

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    13. Wait, Declan's post at 9:05 PM wasn't satire?

      It was so ridiculously over the top I just assumed it was something taking the piss.

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    14. Ok Declan I suggested you should expand on why in your opinion Swinney after only a few weeks is only second to Sturgeon as FM. So to start you off why not tell us why in a few weeks Swinney is better than Salmond as FM who got Scotland closer to independence than anyone else in 307 years.

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    15. Independence for ScotlandMay 27, 2024 at 11:09 PM

      Then explain why people aren't supporting Salmond and Alba if they really want independence then.

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    16. Oh well Declan has nothing to say about why Swinney is only second to Sturgeon in the best FM list. Looks like Declan is void of any case to back up his assertion.

      Anon at 10.09pm - You say Swinney is honest. Did he ask the Murrell's or Beattie where the ring fence was and did it still have £600k in it? Did Swinney ask Sturgeon why she was wasting public funds persecuting Salmond?

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    17. Well said Declan. And well done for standing up to the homophobic abuse.

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  5. Their own internal polling will give them ideas about how best to counter any gender voting gap, but I'd have thought putting Kate Forbes to the fore of the campaign might help.

    Is there evidence that KF is especially popular with women? The most well-known things about her are probably her views on gay marriage and abortion, both of which tend to be more supported by women than men, so I'd be surprised by that

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  6. Early days and a different pollster but obviously a much narrower gap and trends matter in an election campaign. If the SNP can galvanise voters then it is all to play for.

    Indifference is going to be the biggest hurdle in this election.

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  7. The polls show that Independence is still up about 50%.

    However, you highlight exactly why independence supporters should not vote for a Unionist party because the moment they do unionists like you will instantly claim them as pro-union.

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    1. Sadly this polling company did not ask about independence.

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  8. Really the SNP have lost 10% of voters, 1/2% to Alba and the others to Labour?

    Need to press that Labour are just Tories in disguise really and don't support Scotland's right to decide, the unpopular Brexit and various other policies.

    SNP need to try and hold on.

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  9. The polling data offers hope to SNP activists for several reasons, particularly in the context of a First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) election system:

    With 30% of the vote, the SNP is in a strong competitive position, only 5% behind Labour. This indicates that they have substantial support and a solid base to build upon.

    In FPTP elections, winning individual constituencies is crucial. Even a small margin of victory in key constituencies can lead to a significant number of seats. SNP activists can leverage this close polling data to motivate and persuade their supporters to turn out and vote, emphasizing that their vote can make a difference in close races.

    Knowing that the SNP is a leading contender, supporters of other smaller parties who are opposed to Labour or the Conservatives might be persuaded to vote tactically for the SNP. This could help consolidate the vote in their favour in crucial constituencies.

    Activists can use the data to highlight the potential threat from Labour, thereby encouraging complacent or undecided SNP supporters to vote to prevent a Labour victory. The close race can create a sense of urgency and importance among voters.

    SNP has historically performed well in Scotland under the FPTP system. Activists can remind voters of past successes and the importance of every vote in securing victories.

    With Conservatives at 17%, Liberal Democrats at 10%, and other smaller parties collectively holding 7%, SNP activists can campaign to position the SNP as the most viable alternative to Labour.

    In summary, the close polling numbers can be used by SNP activists to galvanize their base, emphasize the importance of turnout, and strategically appeal to voters who might otherwise stay home or vote for smaller parties. This approach can maximize their chances of winning constituencies under the FPTP system.

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    1. More AI verbiage. Use your own words or shut up!

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    2. Well argued points.

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    3. You're complimenting a machine!🀑

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    4. 70 85 67 75 32 79 70 70

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    5. I like it better when they’re drawn out of a bowl by David Lynch.

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    6. I just did a check on the post and it does come up 75% AI generated. Nevertheless, the points are well argued and correct.

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    7. SNP has historically performed well says the f*****g robot in FPTP - is that right Robbie the robot - well clearly your history disnae go back very far. Try checking how many MPs the SNP got in 2010 and before that.
      Anon at 2.52am - have a good look at yourself trusting a robot - "correct" you say.

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    8. Methodically collected data has credibility. Ranting individuals tend not to. Mhhh? Oooh er, incoming.

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  10. I think it's going to be hard for the SNP to keep 20 seats in this election. I'm thinking they could lose 30.

    It'll be the first election since 2011 I will not be voting for them. At this point I feel like there is more chance of achieving independence with them kicked to the curb for a while.

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    1. I refer you to James' previous 'blog entry to find counter arguments.

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    2. I'm the same. I'll vote for a pro-indy party if one stands but it won't be for the devolutionist SNP. The one thing that may work in their favour is that I don't detect much enthusiasm for any party so maybe a low turnout will see them clinging on to the gravy train for one last ride.

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    3. Ritzy - quack. Defeat is victory independence is unionism…

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    4. Rutherglen is a taste of what’s to come. Enthusiasm down, but not amongst Labour’s voters. The SNP is taking a bloodbath in just a few weeks now.

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    5. What’s 11k of fraud among friends? And who hasn’t stolen half a million and spent six figures on a car?

      Vote SNP. Slurping for Scotland.

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    6. I understand your frustration but the impact on the Indy movement will be catastrophic. Please reconsider.

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  11. I've considered his arguments in the previous post, but I feel unswayed by them. Why do we want to reward the SNP's corruption and toxicity by giving them another election win? What have we achieved by doing this so far? I honestly don't think that independence will be advanced with another SNP win.

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    1. I suppose some would see independence as a movement different from conventional party politics, and voting SNP as a symbolic gesture of support for independence, not about rewarding individual politicians or regimes. Just saying

      While it has not achieved independence, it has kept independence alive as an issue, so that it cannot be ignored in the British political and media agendas. An SNP collapse would give the Brit media every excuse to exclude any Scottish party (including Alba) from the airwaves.

      You are most likely right that another SNP win won't immediately achieve independence but it's hard to see how a SNP collapse would advance independence. I have yet to hear a credible argument for how a 'destroy and rebuild' strategy would get any closer to independence any sooner.

      Those who fear encouraging gravy train grifters going off to Westminster can rest assured that there *will* be gravy train grifters going off to Westminster in any case, but answering to their union flag-wrapped London bosses.

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    2. Well argued points.

      Agree 100%.

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    3. I am referring to LurkerNoMores points not Fitzymans when I say they are well argued.

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    4. Labour troughers are better for independence. Why? Because we can all hate them and move votes in good faith.

      Westminster is a toxic influence, even on the Yessers we send there. They settle in, fatten up, and turn Brit. Some of them—McDonald—even turn Atlanticist and begin to think themselves as future Labour prime ministers in waiting.

      Disrupt the place you wasters! We want OUT.

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    5. We don't need to 'hate' anyone.

      But I'd rather risk the occasional SNP MP gets fat and turn Brit on us than send Blair McDougall or Douglas Alexander to Westminster in our name, with a Brit-serving mandate from day one.

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    6. Speaking as an SNP person I would like to emphasise that hate plays NO part in our politics.

      Politics has become too toxic and it is important to reset the language we use whether online or in person.

      Everyone in Scotland has a role in our conversation and it is only right that we treat our political opponents with respect.

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    7. Anon at 9.19pm talks about political opponents - that's the problem people like you just see it as politics. You are supposed to be a party of national liberation. Not a party of gender nonsense and the like. It's about liberation - you may love being ruled - yes ruled - not governed by another country - like a colony - I don't I hate it.
      It's alright to hate things you know - I hate all the killing in the Middle East - do you love that. Stop posting mince.

      "Everyone in Scotland has a role in our conversation" the robot says. Yeh well England controls us and don't even consult us.

      This anon is probably another false AI robot or whatever you want to call it and I hate them as well. Phoney posters.

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    8. So Lurker's argument for voting SNP at 7.45pm is not that the SNP will do anything about independence but simply he would prefer to have his gravy slurpers in Westminster over Britnat gravy slurpers.

      That is how far the once great party of national liberation has fallen. Tribal politics is all it is now.

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    9. On the contrary, I am not arguing for tribal politics. My first point at 7.45 was that a voter could *put aside* the tribal notion of 'rewarding' a particular party, and vote in the interests of the greater cause - of national liberation, if you like - thereby putting aside tribal politics (such as the type of inter-party mud-slinging and personal name-calling so often seen in arguments here).

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    10. Independence might be "kept alive as an issue" but if we know that nothing will actually happen after the election is over couldn't you argue that continually voting SNP "for indy" is the best gift we can give unionists as they can feel safe in the knowledge that for as long as we do they also know it'll never actually happen & the longer the bluff and bluster goes on it's only a matter of time until more of the electorate grow tired of it.

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    11. But but Lurker you don't say how voting for SNP gravy slurpers will actually do anything about independence. There is the 10 previous years of evidence to say they will do nothing. So you are just offering a forlorn hope with the added benefit of possibly less sneering from Britnats. Very thin gruel for people who actually want independence.
      Your last post is actually arguing for a Scotland united approach - you know the approach the SNP rejected out of hand but people should just vote for them anyway because - well Britnats will do less sneering. I repeat very thin gruel.

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    12. My point would apply to any pro-indy party winning seats at Westminster. Any such party would help keep independence alive as an issue.

      What could be achieved and when would depend on circumstances, but I'd have thought it's better to have the electoral mandate of seats won as the starting point for negotiation, than have those seats lost through pro-indy voters not turning up.

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    13. Lurker there wont be any negotiation even if the SNP get a majority of seats - " to give democratic effect" is code for ask for sec 30 again and that is more embarrassing grovelling not negotiating. So will Starmer agree a sec 30 - zero chance.

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    14. IFS, I invite any party or commentator to tell us how they would credibly break the deadlock faced by any party.

      I'd have thought that 'people who actually want independence' would take any opportunity to express that preference, in whatever form available. (Why do people bother to vote for indy parties for local councils, that are not going to deliver independence; it is symbolic, it is not considered 'thin gruel')

      If my last post is a Scotland united approach, so be it. It doesn't bother me if it is at odds with the SNP. Maybe it would have been better if a united front had been agreed, I don't know. Maybe it would be better if Alba didn't stand here or there. But parties do what parties do, that is their right.

      But given we are where we are, there are good reasons to vote for any available pro indy party (starting with James Kelly's recent post on the matter).

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    15. Lurker, I'll try again. I agree it makes sense for independence supporters to vote for pro Indy parties. I disagree that the SNP is pro independence. It is a party of devolution and as I have stated for many years on SGP that makes it a Unionist/Britnat party.
      Surely that must be clear to you now.

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    16. People like you would have Scotland bastardized.

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    17. Hey Lurker is Declan referring to you or me? Also what is he on about?

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    18. Anon at 9.19. Well said. And the toxicity is so evident in the multiple poster on this site. It’s the cost of Freedom of Expression, which ironically we will lose under ongoing unionist rule.

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    19. Yes the toxicity is from the multiple poster anon trolling.

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  12. I'm finding it odd that some are seeing this as an excellent starting position to build upon. Acting as if the SNP have just managed to climb to 30% from a lower number & will continue that momentum to win the election rather than be concerned about the fact that they've dropped to 30% from the 45% they got in 2019.

    It wasn't that long ago where it would have been unthinkable to imagine Labour being in the lead. Labour are the ones with the momentum at the moment and it will take a great deal of work to combat that if it's even possible.

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    1. The reason for this is that the SNP could still win most seats if there is a relatively small movement back to them, which is better than is the case in some other polls.

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    2. They won’t.

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    3. You don’t know that.

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  13. Whose “we”? Not talking on my behalf or SNP supporters who believe in independence. Independence will not advance one iota with a labour win nor devolution for that matter. I think you know that.

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    1. To which post do you refer?

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    2. It's the curse of anonymous posting. Nobody knows who he's talking about as he makes no attempt to identify them by time and has obviously posted in the wrong place. It's lazy and confusing for other readers.

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    3. Owen millions- as if that is your name

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    4. This is one of the most tired arguments on here. For the umpteenth time, nobody is being asked to provide their real name just ANY name so that we know who is talking to who. If you're too thick to grasp that then continue sniping away from safety behind anonymity.

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    5. It's interesting, Owen, that your anonymous critic manages to identify you by 'name' precisely because you're not hiding behind an anonymous profile like he is. I guess he doesn't do irony.πŸ˜‰

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  14. Who are you referring to? None of the posts immediately above yours mention the word 'we'. Try to reply in the right place if you're going to make a point.

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    1. Nan & Sam CrumlishMay 28, 2024 at 12:48 AM

      We would never vote for Sir Starmer because to us he represents the British trouser πŸ‘–. He is the sort of man who buys his clothes on gentleman's outfitters. He knows what worsted means and he likes it. He's your typical Tory Councillor.

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  15. Starmer - what a horrible disgusting character. After 7 months of Starmer supporting Israeli massacres he now says there should be an immediate ceasefire. I didn't hear him say he would stop arms sales to the genocidal IDF. 36,000 dead and 81,000 injured Palestinians. That's Starmer and Sunak's scorecard to date. They have helped unleash the monster that is Netahanyu.
    Blood on your hands of thousands of children if you vote for Labour or Tory.

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    1. Ohh, absolutely terrible, just wondering where your outrage is for the millions killed and starving in Sudan, or the Uhygurs being re-educated, imprisoned and used as slave labour in China, or the millions starving in Venezuela?

      Funny how there's never any "outrage" or "virtue signalling" over other people being tortured or murdered, you seem to me quite antisemitic.

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    2. One reason there's outrage over Gaza (aside from the actual slaughter and morals) is that the British are involved and invested in it, in a way UK isn't involved in China, Sudan or Venezuela (as far as I know). Our representatives and our taxes are 'in play' in the Israel/Palestine, helping legitimise and/or arm the players, so we have a right to voice our concerns without being labelled antisemitic.

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    3. I think IFS is a grade 1 wank in many of his posts and I’m sure he thinks that about me, but you are a disgusting piece of work. If, as seems the case, you actually approve of the genocidal actions of the Israeli state you have a problem. Trying to paint criticism as antisemitism is disgusting and reprehensible. Don’t normally resort to such language but you should just f**k off.

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    4. Anon I can assure you I do not think anything of you. Why should I you are just another anon. But I have no evidence you are a Britnat fascist like Jerry so that's something in your favour compared to the poster Jerry.

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    5. Goodness IFS, offering favours? No thanks. I know what you are and what you are doing. Get a job.

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  16. I'm going back to the SNP under Swinney. He's at least somewhat normal.

    It's all hands to the pump.

    The labour sneer would be too much to bear.

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    1. Would you rather Labour sneered in 6 weeks or in 2026?

      Id rather now.

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    2. I agree . Time to switch to other Indy parties will be in 2 years for Holyrood.

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  17. How can you take some of these posters seriously. They don't even have the sense or ability to direct their posts to the correct person - diddies. .

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  18. And they regularly congratulate robots on the strength of their arguments.😁

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  19. Vote for the SNP so Jackie Baillie cannae sneer at you. The party of national liberation has fallen a long way. People like Baillie will always sneer at independence.

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  20. It's all very well saying don't vote SNP but you could be left with bugger all.of a movement if you do. You're relying on other people keeping the snp boat afloat so it can be repaired.

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  21. They want it destroyed. They hate the snp more than unionism. Scotland way down their list of priorities

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    1. Yup. You’ve got Nicola’s game down to a tee. Wreck it from within, step back and enjoy.

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  22. Voting for a Unionist Party will not advance the Scottish Independence cause in any way, you may be pissed off with the SNP but you’ll be more pissed of with the Labour Party on the Friday morning when the declare Independence dead forever

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    1. Drivel anon at 11.22pm - they cannae declare independence dead for ever. Starmer says he respects international law and human rights you know.

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  23. Benny Higgins, banker, pal and ex adviser to Sturgeon has come out for the Labour party. Just how many Britnats did Sturgeon have advising her?

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    1. Let us not beat around the bush: this showed Nicola Sturgeon's ability to build a big tent. We should not quickly forget her contribution to the cause.

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    2. Anon at 11.37pm - what was Sturgeon' s contribution to the cause as FM - remind me please. I seem to have quickly forgotten.

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    3. It was Alex Salmond who first employed Benny Higgins services
      you really should check your lies before you shoot your big mouth off with more of them

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    4. Dr Jim 12.28am - nothing I posted at 11.27am is a lie unlike your posts on WGD and SGP. Jimbo you are a woman assaulting coward oh and a nicophant and regular liar.
      So Jimbo you obviously see yourself as the expert on Britnats employed by the SNP - so what's the answer to my question - how many Britnats did Sturgeon employ or have advising her ?
      How about for starters that close friend of the ex Daily Record political editor David Clegg the Britnat from N. Ireland - Liz Lloyd Sturgeon's Chief of Staff. Funny how the Daily Record features so much in SNP life - like Murray Foote - that's right you can add Murray to your list. There you go Jimbo I've given you two for starters.

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    5. Sturgeon did not employ Liz Lloyd. Ignorance on such a basic point simply confirms your lack of credibility and inherent dishonesty.

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    6. What is it with you idiotic trolls. She got the job as Chief of Staff because Sturgeon chose her just as she got her upgraded job to some sort of higher paid strategy made up job because Sturgeon gave her it after the Parliamentary Inquiry into Sturgeon's persecution of Salmond ended.
      Of course Sturgeon didn't pay her out of her own pocket. Your trolling is rubbish.

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    7. Wrong and wrong. Two points. Both wrong. Stop spreading disinformation especially when there is so much you could go after L L on.

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  24. Don’t recall him saying that Independence for Scotland but if you can point me in the direction of where he said that I’ll defer

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    1. You will defer to me will you anonymous at 11.32pm - so kind of you. But first I have to check your credentials - there are a lot of anon trolls about - are you one of them that are annoyingly well annoying - are you anon. You wouldnae be that tosser Dr Jim now would you?

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    2. So you can’t back up your claim with a reference? There’s a surprise.

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    3. Anon it was in the Herald - f*****g trolling anons.

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    4. The unionist Herald is your source! Case closed M’Lud.

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  25. I thought you would be happy about that KC.

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    1. Aw KC just vanished as I posted. Nae luck KC I'm sure you'll try again. Are you and your pal Jerry the f*****t a double act funded direct from Westminster.

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  26. I’m a life long supporter end of check my credentials indeed if you think voting Labour advances the cause then !!

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    1. Anon you cannae post in the right place and your post makes little sense.

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  27. A double header from KC this time. KC is depressed - aye must be awful being Scottish British when you are in the minority of 8.5% in Scotland.

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    1. Ifs, There’s going to be a lot of people depressed on 5th July, but I’m quietly confident I won’t be one of them.

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    2. Scrubbed that blood of dead Palestinian children off your hands yet. I'm very confident that blood will stain your hands for a long time just like the blood from Blair and Browns murdering adventures in the middle east. Colonial Labour are lying murdering hypocrites also responsible for all those poor children massacred in Manchester.

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    3. Britnat KC's posts removed by James because he continually posts on here as an independence supporter. You can tell he is a Labour supporter because like the SNP Labour pretend to be something they are not. Phonies.

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    4. Actually IFS, I’ll be voting Tory, as it’ll be a two horse race down here in D & G between the Tories and SNP.
      I won’t be wasting my vote. It’s imperative that as much damage as possible is inflicted on the SNP, for the sake of this country. Make no mistake, their day of reckoning is fast approaching.

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    5. There you go KC is a perfect example of how Labour is just like the Tories. Scumbag Britnats the lot of them. KC the Britnat Labour supporter who likes to kid on he is an independence supporter but is voting Tory. Reminds me of Lisa Cameron - you don't upset me by saying the SNP will get a kicking - phoney independence supporters - full of Britnats like you. Your sneers are misplaced Mr 8.5%.

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    6. Ifs, your post at 9:08 is utter desperation.
      You are a Nat desperately clutching for straws, in this awful time for the independence movement. I suggest you forget about the lunacy of independence and move on. It ain’t happening, not now, not ever.

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    7. KC has come out of hiding for a wee while. Two things KC:

      1. This election will not remove the SNP from government. So once again you post pish. If it just removes some SNP MPs from the English colonial parliament that disnae bother me in the least.

      2. Labour voting Tory like you in a UK general election just demonstrates you are stupid and Labour and Tory are two cheeks of the same fat ugly arse.

      Delete
    8. Ifs, don’t think for one second that I’ll be the only unionist voting tactically. Tactical voting is going to damage the SNP, and I think some people aren’t grasping just how much damage can potentially be done at the GE to the SNP.
      Make no mistake, if the SNP lose a shed load of seats and the nationalist share of the vote is down considerably, then anybody that mentions independence or a referendum is going to be laughed at in the face by a lot of people, Starmer for one.
      It’s going to result in independence being kicked into the long grass for a long time.

      Delete
    9. Indy's been in the long, long grass for a decade now, KC. Nicola just wasn't into it, and left the party in a desperate state since. Some well earned failure may sharpen their minds a bit. Scots don't vote SNP to remain British.

      Delete
    10. KC - you never make any sense. I've lost count of the number of times you have posted independence will never happen so what are you on SGP for. That post at 10.27am is exactly what the people saying you should vote SNP say. You really are a very confused Britnat KC - the SNP is not independence just because you say it is.

      Delete
    11. Claiming that you have an argument, then failing to give it, is hardly compelling, KC.

      Maybe you should ask an AI to write it for you, like that other prankster?

      "Write a blog post arguing against Scottish independence." Return. Copy, paste, publish. πŸ™„

      Delete
    12. I do not converse with the Britnat f*****t Jerry because he is a f*****t. I am no longer going to converse with KC ( unless he is doing his sneaky phoney independence supporter and it is by accident ) because he is just an idiot with no integrity. Two Britnat trolls on SGP doing zero for Britnat credibility. Well done guys.

      Delete
    13. I'm curious as to what IfS gets from this site. It only seems to inspire impotent fury.

      Delete
    14. I often wonder myself.
      Very strange. Dosen’t seem to have a decent word about anybody. Probably dosen’t even like himself.

      Delete
    15. Bruce the clue is in the moniker - slow on the uptake.

      Delete
    16. Anon at 5.08pm I certainly don't like trolling anonymous tossers like you. Do you get off on trolling. Saddo.

      Delete
  28. This will probably be the first UK General Election for many years I won't stay up to watch, Unless of course the SNP make a bold move like make it a de facto referendum - and for real not a pretendy one.

    As for my postal vote, I'll keep it till the last week - I can always deliver it on the day to my local polling station (or any in the constituency).

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Same here, minus the postal. I like the ritual of going out to vote.

      I think here in Edinburgh West the only choices on the ballot will be the three stooges of the Brits, the SNP and Greens. And I guess whatever UKIP's called this time. Not exactly compelling. If—and this is very unlikely, I know—the SNP or Green candidate convinces me they're a true determined Yesser, I could see voting for them. But I’m not holding my breath.

      Meanwhile, Christine Jardine is returned with a majority almost as heavy as she is, nevertheless. 🀷🏼

      Delete
  29. https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/ is a campaigning group, and so we should treat its polls a bit cautiously. It seems to be US based although it has national groups in the UK, Poland, Germany and France. This is a quote:

    More in Common was founded in the aftermath of the tragic murder of Jo Cox MP in 2016. More in Common takes its name from Jo’s maiden speech in Parliament where she said: “We are far more united and have far more in common than that which divides us.” Our hope is that through our work, we honour Jo’s memory and legacy.

    The sentiment is worthy but from a UK viewpoint, Scottish Independence may be something they disapprove of.

    ReplyDelete
  30. A lot of comments but tdlr: SNP still in the game.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. tl;dr is exactly what got the SNP into this mess in the first place. Too busy slurping London gravy, didn't bother reading Scotland.

      Delete
  31. the problem here is the SNP's vote is spread thing while Labour's is in the heartlands.

    SNP is a national party. Labour is an urban party and that's where all the seats are.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If "all the seats" are urban, then Labour is a "national party" too, and the SNP is just as urban-centric.

      In reality, the SNP got to where it is by being the party of Yes, and there are Yessers all over Scotland. The question now is how many of them have run out of patience?

      Delete
    2. Elevating Swinney was a masterstroke.

      Delete
    3. Wasn't Humza supposed to be, as well?

      Delete
    4. Humza was a really, really good leader two. However there was a mishap with the Greens so Humza very nobly fell on his sword.

      The noble sacrifice that Humza made has to be acknowledged. He is a nice person, a good person, and was definitely the right choice at the time. However as they say events happen and the mishap with the Greens paved the way for Swinney to be a great replacement to lead us into this election and the next.

      Delete
    5. Oh Humza was such a nice chap, everybody couldn't help but love him. When he turned around and stabbed the Greens, it was for their own good, and it was very noble of him to kick his own arse very swiftly out the door thereafter.

      He polled terribly with Scots. In reality, he was a piss poor choice by the party, and you had to trumpet "his links to Gaza" daily because he was utterly Useless as First Minister of Scotland.

      Still, he quit pretty quick. I'll give him that. Best choice he ever made in office: leaving it.

      Delete
    6. "If "all the seats" are urban, then Labour is a "national party" too, and the SNP is just as urban-centric.

      In reality, the SNP got to where it is by being the party of Yes, and there are Yessers all over Scotland. The question now is how many of them have run out of patience?"


      You're taking me very literally there. By "all" I meant most.

      No, not really. The SNP are the competitor 1st or 2nd in every seat in Scotland. No so for Labour (central belt), Tories (Aberdeenshire) or Lib dems (Islands).

      FPTP doesn't help national parties, it helps parties with concentrated support. Only the SNP have had concentrated support recently across all regions.

      If Labour are 5-10% ahead nationally, they are miles ahead in their heartlands. That's the problem.

      The Stewart McDonalds of this world didn't think they'd be seen as yellow tories (or worse just really boring, no users) any time soon and saw it as a wage. At least they've been feathering their nest as journalists or other public/private sector organisations in lieu of their demise.

      Delete
    7. " there are Yessers all over Scotland. The question now is how many of them have run out of patience?"

      There are many but not enough for the SNP or Yes to really make a breakthrough. That's the cold reality the SNP and yessers need to deal with. You can be impatient, I'm sure John Swinney would be quite elated if an obvious majority of Scots wanted independence tomorrow. Then action could happen.

      SNP and Sturgeon misstepped with their successor strategy and court strategy meaning the path is in retreat. However, the fundamental is not enough people support independence right now. SNP would be jumping up and down if they could turn Yes dial upto 55% and take advantage of that. It's not where Scotland is right now.

      Delete
    8. @11:46

      Agreed. Where I differ from you, though, is in *why* Yes is short of a majority in the polls.

      The reason for that is the SNP and Scotgov has not been pushing forward a _vision_ of Indy Scotland. Mike Russell's horsebox and the occasional boring PDF is no campaign for independence. They need to tell us what _more_ they could do with the powers of independence. They need to show us what life's like in Denmark and our other neighbours. They need to _inspire_ us.

      Instead, the only time we ever hear about indy it's as a hostage to Pete Wishart's job security. That carrot they've been dangling these last 10 years is getting awfy foostie!

      Delete
    9. Issue polling routinely shows independence low down on the list. It's beaten by health and jobs and housing, all things independence could utterly transform, of course. Why then do Scots rate indy so low on their list?

      Because that campaign won't make itself. The case for independence must be made.

      Delete
  32. Rachel Reeves, Labour shadow chancellor says no ifs no buts - where have I heard that before.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Well you can always trust Wee Nichola Krankie can't you.

      She said: “The party has never been in a stronger financial position than it is right now and that’s a reflection of our strength and our membership.

      “I’m not going to get into the details...but, you know, just be very careful about suggestions that there are problems with the party’s finances, because we depend on donors to donate.

      “There are no reasons for people to be concerned about the party’s finances, and all of us need to be careful about not suggesting that there is.

      “We’ve got to be careful we don’t reap what we sow, if we have leaks from this body it limits the ability for open free and frank discussion.”

      Lucky that turned out not to be an outright lie isn't it IFS?

      Delete
  33. WGD numpty and all round nasty character Dr Jim now backs Benny Higgins supporting and voting for Labour. He says on WGD that's ok because he believes Benny does support independence. Yep that's the type of contortions you work yourself into if you are a nicophant like Dr Jim.
    Anyone else saying they would vote Labour would be vilified and condemned by Jimbo but if the person is a pal of Sturgeon then that's ok.

    I have NEVER said vote Labour but Jimbo is fine with that for certain people.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dr Jim is a strong SNP supporter. Let us not attack SNP supporters or the SNP.

      Delete
    2. Before Jimbo slinks on here as an anon poster saying I am lying DrJim says on WGD :

      " My understanding is that Benny Higgins does support Scottish independence but in the case of a UK general election where the choices are Labour or Tory being that government, his preference is Labour as the credible option. "

      In the nicophant mind it's all about Nicola.

      A weak reply from yesindyref2 on WGD:

      " OK, I'll keep an open mind." says yesindyref2.

      For once I agree with Skier who says:-

      " Doesn't seem very bright if he thinks indy can be secured by Scots voting Labour. "

      Delete
    3. The trouble with this election is that indy *can't* be secured by Scots voting for anyone at all. The SNP's kept it off the ballot, yet again.

      Delete
    4. To be fair to the SNP we have to wait and see what is on their manifesto. I am confident that independence will feature prominently.

      Delete
    5. @11:22. You forgot the "once again" at the end, there. Because indy's been on every manifesto they've _ever_ had. Fat load of use it does without a plan for action!

      Delete
    6. You could start a fight in an empty pub couldn't you? You attack Tories, Labour, Limp Dims, Greens, independence supporters, independence agnostics, English, in fact the only people you seem to like is Palestinians, and probably only because they support terrorism, murdering and raping people and taking hostages, your type of people.

      Delete
  34. I would advise 'Independence for Scotland' to turn his modem off for a week. He's swamping the comments here, and posting at 00:20, then back at it at 09:00.

    It is obsessive and unhealthy (and plain wierd).

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I would advise you, anon, to mind your own damn business.

      Who knows what shifts you're pulling here with your veil of anonymity? Nor I!

      Delete
    2. She's a bit of an oddball in all fairness.

      Delete
    3. Anon trolls and non anon trolls have been trolling me for years on SGP trying to get me to stop posting. Nobody ever asks me nicely😒😒😒😒😒

      Delete
    4. Anonymous at 12.13pm - you clearly cannae count or you never did an analysis. It is you anonymous who post the most. Numpty.

      Delete
    5. It's almost as if people are trying to tell you something.

      Delete
    6. Hey Bruce is that you asking me nicely?

      Delete
    7. It helps him cope with life and he is a rather sad and lonely little fellow, in need of affirmation. Let’s all give IFS a virtual hug

      Delete
    8. Anonymous trolling tosser at 5.46pm - do you get off on trolling. Saddo.

      Delete
    9. Awhh wee IFS, huv a hug.

      Delete
  35. Nothing to do with their attack on womens rights then, chickens home to roost springs to mind, action and reaction etc........

    FatherTedCrilly

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Oh look, Muriel. There's a bandwagon. I'd better climb aboard and join the Green Coat gang.
      Puleeeeze!

      Delete
    2. Father Ted always came across as a warm, compassionate and conscientious sort. You're more of a Rimmer, what with all the toe curlingly British idioms, as always, KC.

      Delete
  36. Pro Indy vote, enough of it, going to labour just for a wee change and a kicking to the snp who have brow beaten people for too lojgo

    ReplyDelete
  37. How? Nicola divided us, blocked our path, and scarpered.

    That's the problem. The indy movement's weakest link is the SNP and its top-down leadership. All it takes is a bad faith actor at the top and we're all humped.

    ReplyDelete
  38. Remember that some pro-indy people vote Green and Labour so not the worry you state.

    ReplyDelete
  39. Alex Salmond divided you mate, without Nicola Sturgeon post 2014 the SNP would have been finished
    She handed Scotland the English supreme court ruling and you sat on your hands and did nothing about it, typical Scotland wanting everything done for you, and if it isn't you lump the blame onto the person that gave you the chance to fix it
    It's no wonder Nicola Sturgeon got fed up with the do nothing Yes movement that only exists to greet and moan but does nothing
    Salmond will do nothing because he can do nothing, he's just all mouth that dumped Scotland in it in 2014 then he buggered off hoping his work was done
    Don't blame others for your own fault, there's only one way to get independence for Scotland and that's convince more people to support it, then turn on England the same way the Irish and every other country did it

    ReplyDelete
  40. Guff. Where was indyref2 because of brexit? Where was indyref2 because of Covid and a year long lead for Yes in polls? And where oh where is the PLEBISCITE ELECTION she promised us when she lost our case in court?

    Salmond wouldn’t have lost it and blocked our path. Dunno if you’ve noticed but he always wins in court. πŸ˜‰

    ReplyDelete
  41. Britnat ex ToryMP and now Reform says on tv that all illegal immigrants crossing the channel should be sent to the uninhabited Scottish islands of the Outer Hebrides. Aye that's what the Britnats think of us. We don't count we don't exist. We are a colony.

    ReplyDelete
  42. 1.58 is a loony.

    ReplyDelete
  43. Anon at 1:09pm, I agree with you, it’s all pretty depressing at the moment, and difficult to see a positive catalyst for improvement in the foreseeable.

    ReplyDelete
  44. As I've told you many times before, KC, when majorities vote to leave Britain, they get their independence. Your lot used to own a quarter of the world, after all. Not any more. Nor has any free nation ever come back to mother England.

    ReplyDelete
  45. Anon at 3:03, I don’t actually disagree with what you’re saying. You talk sense, unlike Ifs.
    The problem you have, of course, is convincing a majority of the country that independence would benefit us.

    ReplyDelete
  46. Guess I'll take that compliment, KC. πŸ˜…

    I’m the same anon who posted the stuff about how to do that earlier in this thread. (Search for "Denmark" to find it.) Campaigners like Lesley Riddoch do a lot more of this vision-building stuff than the SNP has done since the slap-dash days of 2014.

    If the SNP was serious about winning independence, they would be doing this stuff and building the case. Voters only really have ears to hear it when it comes from authority, and those who they are being asked to trust to deliver it.

    ReplyDelete
  47. Anon at 1:58 PM has got to be a troll post.

    Leaders are supposed to lead. What exactly does he expect the rest of us to have done when Nicola was the one with the means and power to actually do something when she was First Minister?

    The buck stopped with her and her failings are of her own making.

    ReplyDelete
  48. Alert: Big pole coming out 5pm with massive sample size.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anon at 3.49pm - why do you find a big gay pole coming out interesting. You got a thing about poles? Unusual though for people to give a set time to be coming out. Must be a tick tok thing.

      Delete
    2. Hopefully this poll shows better figures for the SNP.
      Be a welcome boost.

      Delete
    3. I hope so too!!

      Delete
    4. Snp up from 2% to 3% GB level.

      Delete
    5. Looks like a Swinney bounce.

      Delete
  49. Colonial Labour

    Sarwar says "vote Keir for English rule."
    Starmer says " I’m coming for your oil, gas, renewables and whisky.
    Journalist says " How is that voting for change?"

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Did the UK have to beg Brussels for a referendum to leave the EU?
      Did the UK have to take a case to Strasburg, which ruled for them to shut up and go to their room?

      No. Of course not. Because the UK was not a Colony of Europe.

      Delete
    2. What is it then? Certainly not a respected or equal partner, with the inherent right to end the relationship at the time of its choice.

      Delete
    3. You think there would be a better chance of a referendum if polling suggested we would very likely win?

      Delete
    4. International law?

      Delete
  50. @4:48

    That's the issue. There are two entangled problems here.

    1. Building clear sustained majority support for independence, by talking about what we could actually do with it and drawing inspiration from our fellow European neighbours
    2. Actually proving it with a democratic event which results in that clear majority of Scots voting for indy

    1 is absolutely essential to make 2 happen. And here's the thing: the SNP just hasn't been doing it

    That's why we don't have the numbers for Yes. All they've settled on is cynically using the 40+% for Yes to win lots of seats in British and devolved elections. Hardly the actions of a determined party of independence.

    To fix this, we need to focus on 1 again. We need the party of independence to get back aboard the project and sell the vision to our nation. The options for 2 open up once we have won the argument and gained permanent majority support.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. By the way, this is not me arguing to wait, and "just go chap doors." The _SNP leadership_ must make that vision and make those arguments for indy. No one's buying it as just around the corner if the party itself cannae be arsed even promoting the vision!

      Delete
    2. There's a concept in technology called "technical debt" when you've faffed around for too long instead of doing the work to keep things up to date. The NHS's attachment to 2001's (virus ridden) Windows XP is a prime example.

      Well, the SNP has a boatload of "political debt" when it comes to the case for independence.

      The case for indy was cobbled together in a hurry in 2014, a bad look for many undecided Scots. We need more preparation, more hard work, more vision and more clarity this time.

      But it's painfully obvious to all that nothing is happening soon. A debt like this makes it a self-fulfilling prophecy.

      Delete
    3. I agree they havne't been doing your point 1 at all, nearly enough.

      I don't care about the trans stuff but they've allowed themselves to be seen as more intersted in these issues than your point 1.

      trouble is, we need them to survive to repair them.

      Delete
    4. Well the SNP could finally do something about the annual GERS propaganda report. What sort of party of independence produces a Britnat propaganda report that tells its people they cannae afford independence.

      Delete