Another poll that offers real hope to the SNP - this time from Savanta

Let me acknowledge at the outset that not long ago I would have regarded the idea of reporting a 4-point Labour lead as "a hopeful poll for the SNP" as completely absurd.  But we have to accept the fact that Humza Yousaf did end the coalition with the Greens in a catastrophic manner, and that there was a major crisis as a result which upended a lot of our assumptions about the political state of play.  Shortly after John Swinney took over, there was a YouGov poll showing a 10-point Labour lead, and there seemed to be a real risk that could prove to be a staging post towards the SNP being reduced to fringe status in the House of Commons.

In that context, the Survation poll putting the Labour lead at only four points was encouraging, because at that sort of level the SNP would retain a significant number of seats, and it was still possible they could recover and edge back into the lead.  The snag, though, was that Survation have in recent times tended to show better results for the SNP than other polling firms, so there was a danger the lower Labour lead in that poll was just a "house effect".  This new Savanta poll with a similar result lessens that danger, not least because it shows the position as stable since the previous Savanta poll which was mostly conducted before Swinney became leader.

Scottish voting intentions for the UK general election (Savanta, 24th-28th May 2024):

Labour 37% (-)

SNP 33% (-)

Conservatives 17% (-)

Liberal Democrats 7% (-)

Seats projection (with changes from 2019 election): Labour 28 (+27), SNP 18 (-30), Conservatives 6 (-), Liberal Democrats 5 (+1)

As I've said before, if the SNP are going to fight their way back into the lead, they really need to try to do it before the postal votes go out.  I'll be a lot less optimistic about a slender Labour lead if it's still in place when a substantial number of votes have already been cast.

Interestingly, although the Westminster results show no change, on the Holyrood numbers Savanta are reporting a distinct improvement for the SNP.  They were level with Labour on the constituency ballot in the last poll but are now one point ahead, while on the list ballot they've dramatically overturned a six-point Labour lead and are now one point ahead.  OK, this is a Westminster election not Holyrood, but if the SNP's underlying support is recovering, that could eventually feed through into Westminster voting intentions.

On personal approval ratings, John Swinney is faring somewhere in between the findings of other recent polls, because his net rating of -4 is a bit below Keir Starmer's rating of +1, but a bit above Anas Sarwar's -8.  The important thing, though, is that Swinney is getting far better ratings than Humza Yousaf would be if he was still in place.  At least the leadership question is no longer weighing the SNP down.

Last but not least, our resident unionist troll KC will be devastated to discover that Savanta are showing support for independence continuing to ride high at 48%.

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 48% (-)

No 52% (-)