The first MRP poll of the campaign is out - it was conducted by Find Out Now (so that'll really trigger KC!) and it includes two versions of the seats projection. The first is without "TV" and the second is with "TV". I assume TV can only stand for tactical voting, and as tactical voting is very much a real phenomenon, it's encouraging that the SNP are remarkably close to a majority on the "with TV" figures. In the circumstances they're not doing all that badly on the "without TV" figures either. Remember that 29 seats is the new target for a majority in Scotland.
Seats projection "without TV":
Labour 493
Conservatives 72
Liberal Democrats 39
SNP 22
Plaid Cymru 4
Greens 2
Seats projection "with TV":
Labour 476
Conservatives 66
Liberal Democrats 59
SNP 26
Plaid Cymru 3
Greens 2
If "TV" is indeed tactical voting, it clearly can't simply be anti-Tory tactical voting because Labour do less well on the "with TV" numbers. One thing I really don't understand is why Plaid Cymru would win one fewer seat with tactical voting than without it.
I know some people will be sceptical about the scale of Labour landslide projected here, but I don't find it inherently implausible. We've seen in the past that all bets are off when really enormous swings occur. If we wake up the day after the election and the Tories are no longer one of the two largest parties, I'm genuinely not sure the BBC and ITV will know how to cope.
I can confirm TV does mean tactical voting.
ReplyDeleteAstounding is a bit of an OTT word to use.
You are Martin Baxter and I claim my £5.
DeleteI am Silvēstriną and I claim a 🦞 sandwich on black 🇱🇹 farmers bread 🍞.
DeleteShades of 2011 for SNP performance in Scotland. Purely a gut feeling, but I'll plump for 28-33 SNP seats on the day, with some absolutely razor thin marginals. Glasgow/Lanarkshire Labour's strongest areas.
ReplyDeleteEngland- Labour landslide of literally biblical proportions, Tories around 100 seats on the day. It's over for the Tories.
I hope so. Bin central belt i feel a good amount are intrinsically pro indy SNP, lending labour their vote.
DeleteI think it'll either be very close or very bad
All of Labour's gains will be in the Central belt. Again, purely my own "hunch", but 20-25 seats range.
DeleteI think it will be very bad, bad, average, good , very good, and excellent for the SNP.
DeleteI think it'll be 10ish seats or 25 seats.
DeleteCan't see it in between for some reason.
Weirdly I could see Glasgow south staying SNP as it's a bit hipster nowadays. Even though the MPs is a unionist SNP MP in disguise.
I forgot to water Geraldine's plant. Christmas crackers! Aunt Val will be furious. And don't mention the Danube! Please!!
DeleteI bet I don’t know what will happen other than pro independence supporters want to win seats so SNP
DeletePlease sir, can we have more?
Delete“If we wake up the day after the election and the Tories are no longer one of the two largest parties, I'm genuinely not sure the BBC and ITV will know how to cope.”
ReplyDeleteThe BBC would suddenly place great focus on seats in the Lords. Purely impartial and objectively, of course.
They twist my nutmeg
DeleteThey will still have the Tories on all their programmes, as they still do with Farage.
DeleteDoes this mean our future will be The Song Remains The Same.
ReplyDeleteSwinney asking for a sec 30 and being refused. Swinney then moans about a democratic deficit and says vote SNP to kick out Labour at the next election and send a message.
If this is a party of independence then it must be for the next century.
I feel that Ronan Keating of Irish pop group Boy Zone was channelling those unforgettable words of General de Gaulle. Very appropriate here.
DeleteAll my power's waste away
ReplyDeleteI fear the crazed and lonely looks
The mirror's sending me these days, oh-oh
Touch me, how can it be?
Believe me, the sun always shines...on TV
This poll vindicates SNP strategy in elevating Swinney.
ReplyDeleteFeel as if this poll vindicates what I have been saying for weeks now. SNP will win the election comfortably in my opinion once the campaigning gets going. Will be interesting to see if the poster Independence for Scotland is prepared to offer a grovelling apology.
ReplyDeleteYou forgot to add your name, Declan.
DeleteEh? They're behind when they were twenty points ahead previously.
DeleteMy name Douglas 'Popsie' Lauder if you don't mind. Naughty as ninepence I am. Me.
DeleteDeclan what has IFS got to apologise for. Unlike you he never forecast any result. Time for you to apologise for posting lies.
DeleteIfS calls you out for being a numpty, which you are, Declan. Your projection is pure, wish-fulfilling shite.
DeleteIFS has been forecasting a disastrous result for SNP for some time, and indeed wants it. Have you really missed this?? He is noticeably absent during this period of more positive polls. Anon? Mmmh?
DeleteIn the margin of error on independence during a supposed doom time. What's it going to be like the next political cycle?
ReplyDeleteNo different to what it is now. It dosen’t change.
DeleteWhat do you mean? It's changed towards yes since 2014.. gone slightly backwards and is sitting about 50/50 by the looks.
DeleteWhen SNP were riding high under sturgeon it was consistently in majority for a while. It's now not. So it does change.
DeleteIn a perverse way if 48.is the low point when SNP are in doldrums, it bodes well for the next time they come again... a la the labour party from 2015 to now.
Yes, even the Survation poll the other day had the Yes vote as high as 45.
DeleteAnon at 11:37, ah the Survation poll,
Deleteif my memory serves me right was Yes 45, No 55
Correct. Remarkable resilience from Yes even in the worst polls.
DeleteNothing ever changes though, a minority in favour of independence, as always.
DeleteWhen the SNP crash into a mountainside like a dart next month I think one of two bad things will then happen to them:
ReplyDelete1. They keep Swinney, who looks like he sleeps in a coffin.
2. They sack him and go full Born Again Tartan Tories.
I think they will go for the coffin option. It's probably a just reflection on the party's membership. Normal people may well draw the curtains on them. Consider this: In Scotland, the Tories are doing better than the SNP.
Eh? No, the Tories are not doing better than the SNP in Scotland. What put that idea in your head?
DeleteIf the Tories take any seats at all from the SNP, though, their friends in the media will push that narrative relentlessly. You know how keen they were on Ruth Davidson "winning" Holyrood in 2016.
DeleteWhere is that LD surge coming from!!? That seat projection would be equivalent to peak Clegg in 2010. Nonsense, frankly.
ReplyDeleteActually, the SNP projection is probably the most accurate (or least inaccurate) of the major parties. Even then it's probably out by 20-25%. Fwiw, I believe there'll be a decent number of current SNP abstainers holding their nose on July 4th which will get them up to around 20+ seats. Swinney could take some sort of personal endorsement from that, just about.
Hello James, regarding TV and Plaid Cymru, this almost certainly relates to Ynys Mon (Anglesey). The large majority of the local people speak Welsh as their first language. There is a sizeable chunk of the local population, primarily centered around Holyhead who are English-speaking. Then 30%+ hail from England. The first group tend towards Plaid, the second towards Labour and the third, which includes many retirees, follow English voting trends, and favour the Conservatives. Since the demise of the Lib Dems, we have seen TV on numerous occasions with all three parties taking the seat. Hatred of the Tories will see a split in the Welsh vote, with many voting for the party best placed to keep out the Cons. This is, of course, a massive generalization: there are Welsh-speaking Tories and Plaid has support from English people, but generally it stands. My money will be on Plaid this time. They, at last, seem to have chosen an appropriate candidate.
ReplyDeleteRob here, silly question perhaps, but... When allowing for tactical voting, is it variable aross the UK? I mean does it presume anti-tory TV in England and Wales, anti-SNP TV in Scotland or anti-incumbent TV per constituency?
ReplyDeleteThis poll can’t even be arsed spelling out what it means by TV, so no more detail there.
DeleteThe only tactical voting I’ve ever heard about in general elections here is the squeeze on third placed and lower parties in tight contests, almost universally against the Tories until 2015, and then against the SNP by unionists thereafter.
Tactical voting is simply “voting against”. The party you’re determined to hurt is the vital element. It’s not something people just do on a mischievous lark.
If Starmer ends up with 490 seats, many of which will be approved Starmerites I can't see Westminster politics giving a stuff what happens in Scotland and Wales. With such a huge majority almost every vote will be passed on the "Ayes have it" without need for lobby votes. Even with opposition votes, any remaining Labour rebels will not be able to dent that majority. Whatever happens in five weeks we can't lose Holyrood in 2026 otherwise even devolution will be unravelled. I really don't think Starmer has any commitment to devolution or green issues (a private jet to come and launch his green initiative in Scotland...really?)
ReplyDeleteSo much for the
Deletepathetic vote SNP and we might get lucky and have the balance of power and ask for a se30. It was nonsense before it is nonsense now and it will always be nonsense. Westminster will never willingly let Scotland. We are their possessions. .
If you are content to watch Starmer dismantle devolution in all but name and put Indy back by decades, that is your decision. You appear not to understand it’s not not only the arithmetic but the optics and consequences of a greatly reduced number of pro Indy MP’s that will greatly damage the wider Indy movement. Don’t bother repeating the bloodied nose argument. Even were it true, it will be a bloody nose knock out, not just a seven count.
DeleteIt is the ebb and flow of politics. Labour are riding high on Tory incompetence but the honeymoon may be short because Starmer isn't all that popular. Then the tide may well ebb rather dramatically in the other direction.
ReplyDeleteOne election decides nothing. The Tories could be reduced to a rump but they could bounce back in five years. Likewise the SNP and independence could swell on discontent with the whole Westminster show.
Anybody predicting the end of anything in a multiparty democracy hasn't been paying attention. This is just another fork in a long road but the walk goes on.
SNP will be unable to return in strength once Starmer has effectively dismantled devolution in all but name. The Holyrood election will si:ply be an extra nail in the already closed coffin. Depresithtabsomfew of you seem able to grasp this point. And spare me the bloody nose argument. B C.
ReplyDeleteConsidering the BBC and MSM 24/7 onslaught of lies and disinformation over the past three months, this is encouraging.
ReplyDelete"Tactical voting" includes a small proportion of Reform voters switching to Tories. This saves them around 17 seats, but at the same time anti-Tory tactical voting costs them 23 seats elsewhere.
ReplyDeleteThere's probably a scenario where those Reform voters refuse to back the Tories, bringing them down to around 49. That would put the Lib Dems in second place, still with 59.
I think the SNP will do a lot better than the pollsters are suggesting there is 5 weeks to go .This is not 1997 there is not the same feeling of change a fresh start around as there was for the Blair landslide.
ReplyDeleteStarmer is boring bland .There is more disillusionment expect a low turnout.
Swinney is more popular than Humza ,there is not the same disdain for him among the electorate .
A lot of people will hold their noses and will vote SNP . Glasgow has a younger electorate than the rest of Scotland and Labour will get horsed in the Southside seats the significant Asian vote will desert Labour in droves and vote SNP en masse .
Don't be surprised to see the SNP get 30 to 35 seats
KC a Britnat attention seeker.
ReplyDeleteYou are a Nat living in denial, somehow clinging to the hope independence may happen one day.
Delete