Ipsos are out of the blocks at lightning speed with a poll conducted yesterday and today on the SNP leadership race. As expected, Kate Forbes is once again the voters' clear choice as First Minister.
Which SNP politician would make the best First Minister? (Ipsos, 29th-30th April 2024)
Kate Forbes 26%
John Swinney 20%
Stephen Flynn 7%
Angus Robertson 4%
Shona Robison 2%
Mairi McAllan 2%
Humza Yousaf 2%
Jenny Gilruth 1%
Swinney does have the consolation of leading among SNP voters, but remember once you start digging into subsamples like that, the chances of inaccuracy become greater because the margin of error is bigger. However, it does appear that Forbes remains best-placed to broaden the coalition of support for independence by appealing to non-SNP voters.
It's safe to say from the above numbers that a re-run of Yousaf v Forbes would be likely to produce a very different result from last year!
Yousaf is even higher than Gilruth😂😂
ReplyDeleteSturgeon fixed the previous election for Yousaf will she do the same for Swinmey? Also will the SNP lie about the membership numbers so they can add phoney votes for the correct candidate?
ReplyDeleteI don’t see how she could. Neither her nor her husband are in positions of power within the party anymore.
DeleteShe’s yesterday’s woman.
Yes I agree. The SNP are not a democratic party. The membership, or what is left of it. Are addicted to Sturgeonite divise policies. The clique will make sure Forbes has lost before a vote is cast. It's why we have to move on from the SNP. Nothing good will come of waiting for them to stop this nonsense.
ReplyDeleteNothing especially good came of doom mongering about the SNP. I understand the impulse and I respect people’s decision to leave.
DeleteBut the fact remains that had just a handful more disaffected voters remained in the party, Kate Forbes would currently be enjoying her one year anniversary as leader of the party.
For "handful", read 2144.
DeleteWhat EXACTLY is Forbes' appeal? How will she make our lives better?
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteEXACTLY you say? Well, how about you describe Salmond and Sturgeon’s for us so we can compare.
DeleteHer biggest advantage for me is her independence from the controlling faction that threw independence aside for woke bollocks they couldn’t even implement right. She’s competent, sharp and a break from what’s so clearly failed us.
Yet she visably caved in to the elites when she complained about the anomalies at the leadership election, there was an obvious change in her attitude, so not sure your "independence from the controlling faction" is accurate, and she sure as hell was wishy washy on her independence for Scotland or LACK of it.
DeleteFatherJackCrilly
Are the SNP too factionalised now to offer a joint ticket? Forbes as FM, Swinney as her deputy?
ReplyDeleteTo bridge the divides, there is going to have to come a point where the party stops just bleating about unity and actually comes together in a meaningful way.
That would be a meaningful way.
That’s on Swinney. The mood music, however, is all to the tune of “don’t even dare, Kate.”
DeleteWhat about the missing 36%? All dk?
ReplyDeleteThey're downstairs watching a film about scallop diving in the Channel Islands with a voice over by Margaret Beckett.
DeleteThat sounds just delightful!
DeleteThey’ll be “don’t know”, as they’re unfamiliar / uninterested in the offered candidates. That’s the thing with leadership polling: you only really make yourself known by *being* leader, not before it. You might even “grow into the rôle” as some might say.
Hopefully a different rôle entirely than Humza’s as a quickly forgotten historical footnote.
It's which SNP member would be best FM, a restricted choice for the public!
ReplyDeleteLet's hope Forbes reads this poll and then decides to stand
ReplyDeleteIt all hinges on her now. Run and risk an early election as the greens will crucify her with extreme prejudice. Or sit on her hands as Swinney buries the party with Continuity until we’re all dead and buried.
DeleteIt’s a lot to ask of one person, let alone a young mum! Scotland turns to you, Kate. But does your party?
Nobody does hypocrisy like the SNP.
ReplyDeleteWhen we get an unelected PM, there are cries of “democratic outrage “ because a GE isn’t called. Yet here we are, about to get our second unelected FM in little over a year, and surprise surprise, no such calls of outrage!
This post is nonsense and fails to understand that the Scottish approach to politics is very distinct from other systems and is not a presidential one.
DeleteNot nonsense at all.
DeleteOne thing all Nats have in common is they don’t like to hear or read the truth.
Anon @9-19am
DeleteYou attempted to peddle this nonsense yesterday and you were promptly put back in your box by FM Gethin in Wales.
Away with you Anas.
It’s a bit rich of a Nat accusing somebody of peddling nonsense.
DeleteYou forgot to call us nat sis, Cordelia.
DeleteI voting fae Jate.
ReplyDeleteWhen you see England making policies close to fascism, like Rwanda deportations, you understand why we need Independence, Scotland can't be associated with this
ReplyDeleteIndependence is a complete nonsense,
DeleteWill you tell the 150+ other independent countries in the world or should I?
DeleteAnon at 12:03, LOL🤣🤣🤣
DeleteIt is interesting to see all the posts on this blog, of who must be elected, who shouldn’t and the rest. Yet most folk on this blog do not have a vote as they are not members of the SNP. Surely you should be spending more time in trying to increase the vote share above 2-3% or are you just not interested anymore in futility?
ReplyDeleteThis comment would make more sense (though still not much) if most posters here were members of Alba
DeleteDon't you know? Anybody who criticises the SNP is a member of Alba apparently. Paranoia doesn't begin to describe it.
DeleteYes, I've wondered about that. I'm a member and have a vote. I like Kate and will vote for her if she stands but John is a decent politician. I don't consider it factionalism within the party to prefer one candidate over another. It is pretty normal unless you live in Russia. I would have said most of the factionalists have left and joined other parties or none. They can't really complain too much about another party's leadership election. They have opted out. I don't express an opinion about Alba elections. It isn't my shout.
ReplyDeleteHow would you feel about Ash rejoining SNP after Kate wins?
DeleteHow would ALBA feel? Close escape? She would lose the right to stand as an MSP I believe under the SNP banner. Local constituency wouldn't allow it.
Delete