But I can't be sure of that, so this is an important question, and it's taken me a little while to work out what I think about it. I didn't even think an early election was a possibility until a few hours ago, so all of this is a completely new consideration.
I have argued repeatedly in favour of using an early election as a de facto independence referendum. So really the question is whether forcing an early election in June (probably) would achieve that goal. The answer is probably not. It would depend on the SNP's own attitude, and with their famed over-caution, they would probably say "not this time, but maybe in 2026". (Remember under the Scotland Act, an election will still take place in 2026 even if there is an early election this year.) And they might even have a point just for once, because they would be starting so much on the back foot in a forced election right now that it wouldn't be the most promising circumstances to win independence. A plebiscite election campaign needs at least a little bit of planning and preparation if it's going to succeed.
So if an early election in June isn't going to achieve independence, might it be a stepping stone to it by producing a breakthrough for Alba? It's possible, but I suspect the odds are against it. One of my internal battles within Alba, especially during my time on the NEC in 2021-22, has been to try to inject a degree of realism about where the party stands with the public, because I cannot see much evidence at all from opinion polls, or from the 2022 local elections, or from local council by-elections since 2022, that Alba have gained significant support since they fell well short of winning list seats in 2021.
Mr Campbell acknowledges that an early election might backfire for Alba by losing them their only seat, but he still argues that they have much less to lose than the SNP in 1979, who were defending 11 seats (they ended up losing 9). But that misses the point about 1979 - the problem wasn't just the seats the SNP lost, it was also the fact that they set themselves up to take the blame for Mrs Thatcher coming to power. If Alba are seen to be the decisive factor in forcing an election, and if an election produces a unionist majority (which on polling evidence is the most likely outcome), independence supporters might never forgive Alba for that, and the SNP won't be slow to issue constant reminders.
I suspect Alex Salmond's strategic mind will be telling him that if you gain the balance of power unexpectedly, you don't throw it away the very next week. You keep what you've got and milk it for all it's worth for a while. There may be a correct tactical moment to force an election before May 2026, but I doubt if it's right now.
Just one caveat, though: if an early election was bad for the SNP, it might be the only way of ejecting Humza Yousaf before the Westminster election, and a new leader might just save the independence movement's bacon at that Westminster election. But sacrificing the movement at one election for an unproven chance of salvaging the movement's hopes at another election would be an incredibly risky game to play.
* * *
The most dangerous narrative for Humza Yousaf that is taking root today is that he "cannot be trusted". If he needs a coalition partner after the next election, whenever it is held, the Greens are likely to laugh in his face, because they'd know that their position in government would never be secure. Even if Yousaf says on a Wednesday that a coalition deal will be honoured, it could be scrapped without warning on the Thursday morning. What's more, his SNP colleagues will know that the necessary trust can only be re-established with a new leader, so he's just made his own early departure even more likely. For the life of me, I don't understand why he's made the decision unilaterally like this and taken all the blame - he could have been cannier by nudging the Greens towards voluntarily leaving government, perhaps by means of certain unpalatable ministerial appointments.
* * *
There is one thing in the SNP's favour. Unionist parties are forever telling us that a referendum would be too expensive, and is unwanted and unnecessary because "we've only just had one" (ie. a decade ago). Well, an early election would cost money, wouldn't it? It's unnecessary, isn't it, because we had one as recently as three years ago and there's going to be one in another two years anyway? What's the difference, chaps?
* * *
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"I suspect Alex Salmond's strategic mind will be telling him that if you gain the balance of power unexpectedly, you don't throw it away the very next week. You keep what you've got and milk it for all it's worth for a while. There may be a correct tactical moment to force an election before May 2026, but I doubt if it's right now."
ReplyDeleteAgree wholeheartedly.
You don't get concessions after 5 mins. Plus you need to at least have the option of supporting the government to get concessions.
Alba are not the Tories, they aren't intrinsically hostile to an SNP government. They want concessions. This is the time for that.
Abhainn
Hear hear.
DeleteI’m no fan of the current Scotgov, but a snap election will hand Holyrood to the Brits on a silver platter. Unexpected, Alba’s time has come to play the balance.
Demand the things the movement wants from Humza and see how he reacts. The ball’s then in his court. What does he want to be: Nicola’s loyal sacrificial stooge or the leader of the Yes movement?
Rob here, Ross's motion won't be leading to an election - no confidence in FM, not Scot. Gov. Personal embarassement for Yousaf, safe jobs for tories fearing wrathful voters at the next election, Pat on head from Sunak.
ReplyDeleteWell...I don't think it's as simple as that. In theory a no-confidence vote in Yousaf personally might be non-binding, but it's not easy to ignore, and if he tried to do so, a binding no-confidence vote would almost certainly follow - by which point he would be severely weakened.
DeleteIndeed. I think Stu isn’t looking past the first move here.
DeleteA binding vote of no confidence in the whole Scottish government is very possible indeed once the first minister’s has come. Labour, above all, have everything to win from it.
Oh, Campbell has thought past the first move all right. This is the man who would vote Conservative and not vote for independence - by his own admission!
DeleteIn that light, his position makes perfect sense.
"and not vote for independence - by his own admission!"
DeleteWell if the franchise is as was in 2014, he wouldn't be voting because he wouldn't be eligible to.
We have to hope this leads to an early Holyrood election.
ReplyDeleteThe country can’t afford another 2 years of this wretched SNP administration.
Whatever you say, KC.
DeleteHumza has given in to negative anti-LGBTQ+ forces.
ReplyDeleteLOL
DeleteSo Yousaf is an antidisestablishmentarianismist?
DeleteA full factory reset for the SNP with a Humza rebrand and relaunch or a new leader. All traces of Green gender nonsense purged from the cabinet. Dissenters brought back in. Two years of hard graft on real issues and a refocus on indy towards reclaiming their lost support before a de facto referendum at HR 26.
ReplyDeleteDitching the Green toxic waste was just the first step.
That would certainly be a change for them!
DeleteStranger things have happened in the struggles of so many nations for independence, though. Unexpected champions…
May I respectfully suggest a “factory reset” would need to include a full overhaul of internal policies and procedures to give more power and authority to the members . I speak as a disillusioned ex member.
DeletePersonally, I believe the Green Party have held Scotland back on a number of issues, and been afforded a free path to pursue their own aspirations without check (gender ID policies for example).
ReplyDeleteAs a (now ex!) Labour man of the Corbynite genre, I wasn't particularly enamoured by the Greens in fairness, and can't say I'm overly disappointed to see the current Green lot gone.
Purely personal opinion, bit would have rather seen a coalition with one of the smaller Socialist parties like the SSP (Yes, somewhat idealistic given the SSP don't have any representation!)
A fresh opportunity here for the SNP to turn things round now if I'm honest.
Otherwise, I'd forsee a Tory-Labour coalition being formed if indeed this results in a Scottish General Election. Simply wouldn't have happened under Jeremy/Richard, but highly likley under Sir Kier/ Anas who occupy a similar right of center arrangement to Sunak/Ross. LibDems would of course guarantee unrelenting support to that.
Regards,
Michael.
Your heart’s in the right place, Mick, but they don’t have the numbers. Either for the SSP to win a seat (which is a lasting shame for those of us on the left of the Yes movement) or the red Tories and blue Tories to form a government. Even throw in the Lib Dems and the Greens and united they’ve *just* not enough. It’s a snap election or bust for all of them.
DeleteAppreciate what you are saying anon, but I'm talking on the lines of a potential Tory-Labour coalition following a possible Scottish GE.
DeleteUnthinkable under Corbyn, but it is much more likely under the current Labour leadership than many imagine.
I suppose it should be no surprise to see the Tory from Bath arguing in favour of Alba engaging in a murder-suicide with the SNP.
ReplyDeleteMore surprising is seeing the chatter from some Alba supporters, who don't realise the golden opportunity Humza has just handed them. Regan now has influence she could only have dreamed of 12 hours ago.
It seems like some need reminding that Alba is a pro-independence alternative to the SNP, not an anti-SNP alternative to independence.
What is the SNP’s projected Holyrood performance based on current polling? An early election will harm them but far from wipe them out. Aren’t they guaranteed (thanks to PR) a handy second place to Labour?
DeleteAlba certainly can be wiped out, however. It all too likely will, unless Ash plays a belter with her hand.
Yes, I'd imagine they would come in second. But it would probably wipe out their chances of winning for a generation. The momentum Labour would have after an election drubbing for the SNP would be unstoppable.
DeleteWhen you factor that in with a Starmer landslide in Westminster, it's not at all unthinkable to imagine the SNP out of power for a decade or more. And of course, it would be an act of stupendous self-immolation for Alba and the Greens to help bring about a generation of Unionist rule.
There's a presumption that Salmond is pulling Regan's strings.
ReplyDeleteReally?
I would certainly hope he's pulling her strings. As much as the shine has come off Salmond's reputation for strategic brilliance in recent months, he's still in a totally different class from Regan.
DeleteSo, the Greens have sided with the Tories in a fit of pique. Student politicians to the last.
ReplyDeleteToday feels like a light has shone after a very dark period in Scottish politics. Buzzing about potential opportunities this evening.
It's very exciting :-)
DeleteI think the SNP under Humza have reached the end of the road. Personally I think there is nothing more to lose. If I was Ash I would sink the SNP just to get rid of the lame duck Humza.
ReplyDeleteIf we prop the SNP up. Then Humza will drift to the GE, lose badly. Then we will be where we were ,but with a bloody nose and more Yoon MP's.
The question is .What purpose does keeping Humza in a job serve our movement?
Surely the solution is for Alba to support SNP this time in return for an SNP 1/Alba 2 unwritten promotion deal in 2026. Get rid of many unionists and have a proper reliable pro independence coalition.
ReplyDeleteThat would make sense, however the SNP are too thrawn and too stupid to ever agree that strategy.
ReplyDeleteMuch as I hate the FPTP system this all exposes the flaw in PR. Until now we’ve had the minor party (the Greens) wielding power way above what their support would justify and now it may be a single MSP of the smallest party of all who decides the fate of the Scottish Government.
ReplyDeleteThat's not a "flaw", that's PR working exactly as it's supposed to.
DeleteI was a strong advocate of Mr Campbell until he lost it. And he totally did. We need to be careful about putting our trust in false prophets.
ReplyDeleteAnd the pro indy parties need to stick together. That means SNP, Alba AND Greens. Maybe even SSP.