The Bute House Agreement was not signed until August 2021, which meant that for three months after the May 2021 election, the SNP continued with what was billed as a "minority government". That was technically inaccurate language, because excluding the non-voting Presiding Officer, there were 64 SNP MSPs and 64 MSPs from all other parties combined. It was therefore impossible to bring down the government as long as all of the SNP MSPs turned up. A tied vote on a motion of no-confidence would simply have led to the Presiding Officer using her casting vote to defeat the motion, in line with convention.
However by breaking off the Bute House Agreement today, Yousaf is not reverting to that status quo ante, and the reason is Ash Regan's defection last autumn from the SNP to Alba. There are now five opposition parties in the Scottish Parliament, and they outnumber the SNP by 65 seats to 63. So in theory the government can be brought down, but in practice I struggle to imagine the Greens risking the wrath of the independence movement by "doing a 1979" by bringing about an election at such an unfavourable moment.
However, the Greens now seem to hate Yousaf's guts far more than Alba do, which would have seemed an impossible state of affairs only yesterday. It seems almost inevitable, then, that they will find specific issues on which to vote with the unionist parties on, and the only way in which Yousaf will avoid defeat is with Ash Regan's vote. (Remember the convention on how the Presiding Officer breaks a tie will not always work in the government's favour - it's about backing whatever is the status quo, not about automatically backing the government line.)
This is, then, kind of the arithmetical scenario Alba were looking for when they stood on the list in 2021, and it should give them some limited leverage with the government, albeit any informal deals will have to be done on the quiet given the antipathy between the SNP and Alba. And if by any chance the Greens are crazy enough and angry enough to try to force an early election, it will be entirely up to Ash Regan and Alba to decide whether that happens. Right now might not be the ideal moment for the early plebiscite election we all want, but that doesn't necessarily mean the ideal moment won't arrive before 2026.
Current state of the parties:
Time for Alba to play hardball. Regan to vote with the Govt in exchange for a de facto ref in 26, a list of names booted out of the cabinet and dissenters brought back into the fold. Dump all the remaining Green inspired nonsense and focus on indy for the next two years. Anything less and Regan votes against. Last chance Humza.
ReplyDeleteHi, Ash, yeah it’s me.I’m sure you’ve heard the news. I was just thinking: maybe we can make up?
Delete“Focus on Indy for the next two years” !!
DeleteHow about focusing on trying to run the country competently!
The SNP SG has been a disgrace the last few years, shambles after shambles. Maybe if they got their act together and focused on the issues that matter to people, more would consider backing independence. The majority of people have had enough of this endless drum beating on independence.
Change the record for pity’s sake.
Humza gonna Humza.
DeleteThere is of course this:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.thenational.scot/news/24026194.snp-minister-backs-alba-plan-referendum-holyrood-powers/
"Regan, following legal advice obtained by Alba from constitutional law specialist Aidan O’Neill KC, is seeking to ask the Scottish public if Holyrood should “have the power to negotiate and legislate for Scottish independence”. "
I’m all in favour of that plan. But it’s mighty direct for the Indy-free SNP. Can’t they just talk about it forever, instead? And the particular biscuits to be served during that meeting? Actual bone fide action seems a bit much for independence …
DeleteI hope Regan does have enough clout to push for a defacto Indy ref at the right time and also to push for a voting pact concerning the 2 Alba MPs ( Scotland united again?) at the GE.
ReplyDeleteI'm personally happy if all the gender green stuff is dumped. However, some green policies were along the right lines. For instance the plan to license grouse moors. Or do folk really support the continued existence of low biodiversity near monocultures for gun-totting toffs?
She has been handed the golden opportunity by Holyrood’s knife-edge arithmetic. Trouble is: the current situation as of today is so unstable that she and Humza must cooperate immediately, or it falls apart.
DeleteI don’t regard either Ash or Humza highly, so I have my doubts they’ll pull it off. Mind, the opposition is pretty lousy too so we’ll see.
https://www.thenational.scot/news/24278902.ash-regan-sets-demand-supporting-humza-yousaf/
ReplyDeleteJust over an hour ago. As long as she keeps her demands sensible, and is maybe willing to give up on one or two for the sakes of the rest. but a great opportunity for her to publicise her position on issues.
"ASH Regan will set out a list of demands to Humza Yousaf as his future hangs in the balance in exchange for her support – including him backing her independence bill."
Go for it. Opportunity doesn't knock twice.
The V of NC being brought forward by the Tories next week is in the FM . Apparently this just needs a simple majority whilst NC in government needs two thirds.
ReplyDeleteIf HY losses what then? Presumably a new FM elected by parliament?
If Humza lost the vote could he step down? And allow a new leadership election within the SNP to take place and a new leader to lead until 2026?
ReplyDeleteOr
If Humza thought that he was going to lose the vote could he step down before the vote to stop It happening and call a new leadership election
Now, could this be the beginning of the reunification of the Nationalist movement?
ReplyDeleteIf Regan and Alba do back Yousaf in the VONC, then there doesn’t really seem much of a reason for them to continue to have an independent existence - and their main players would certainly benefit rather more from standing either aligned with or as SNP candidates.
If suddenly the SNP need Alba to govern and can keep things going for the next two years - could the parties come together again?