Apologies to anyone who thought from the title of this post that it's a completely new poll - it was in fact published on Monday, so you may have already seen it. I was up to my neck that day due to an Alba committee meeting and a few other things, but I thought I'd better bring the numbers to you belatedly.
Scottish voting intentions for the next UK general election:
SNP 32% (-1)
Labour 32% (-4)
Conservatives 16% (-)
Liberal Democrats 9% (+2)
Reform UK 5% (+1)
Greens 4% (n/a)
Alba 2% (n/a)
Labour going from a three point lead to level-pegging may look like possible margin of error noise, but it's worth pointing out that the Greens and Alba were not offered as options for Westminster in the previous Norstat poll (even though Reform UK were), so assuming a lot of the Alba and Green respondents would have plumped for the SNP in the previous poll, the trend may be even better than it looks.
Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes 47% (-3)
No 53% (+3)
Scottish Parliament constituency vote:
SNP 35% (-1)
Labour 30% (-1)
Conservatives 17% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 10% (+3)
Greens 5% (-)
Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:
SNP 28% (-2)
Labour 25% (-4)
Conservatives 19% (-)
Liberal Democrats 10% (+3)
Greens 9% (-)
Reform UK 4% (+2)
Alba 3% (-)
Considering the SNPs troubles, the pro Indy share of the vote for the GE of 38% is reasonable.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?type=scotland&SCOTCON=16&SCOTLAB=32&SCOTLIB=9&SCOTNAT=32&SCOTReform=5&SCOTGreen=4&display=AllChanged®orseat=%28none%29&boundary=2019nbbase
ReplyDeleteSNP 19 seats, were 18 on the previous 2 polls. Nowhere to put Alba.
Polls like that are enough to keep Yousaf in a job for now. A GE result like that would probably, just about give him a reprieve until HR26.
ReplyDeleteIf he goes hold on till then, things likely to get steadily worse for him and the HR26 result will see even more seats lost. He’s way out of his depth and it shows. Every day he alienates more voters.
DeleteSouthside Ian
* does hold on till then
DeleteSome on here claim the SNP aren’t interested in independence.
ReplyDeleteYet in an article in today’s Herald, fellow independence supporter Neil Mackay says “the SNPs obsession with independence will hand Labour victory”.
It’s a strange old world!
It's a strange world where an Ulster Unionist like Mackay is held up as an independence supporter.
Delete"If the SNP are to be beaten locally, Sandesh Gulhane will need the support of everyone who wants to help end the obsession with independence and move Scotland forward." Taken from Tory leaflet shoved through my letterbox.
DeleteIt's Britnats who keep going on about independence and MacKay is no independence supporter. The SNP should be obsessed with independence but they ain't. They are devolutionalists and therefore the UK's little helpers. Helping the UK help itself to Scotland's resources.
Ifs, I haven’t been overly impressed by the SNP myself in recent years, but to say they’ve no interest in independence is wide of the mark.
DeleteHaving said that, as much as I respect Neil Mackay as a journalist, I don’t agree with him that the SNP are “obsessed “ with independence.
In my view the truth lies somewhere between his view and yours. I do believe there needs to be change within the SNP though, and I’d hope it happens after the GE, regardless of the result.
Of course there’s the chance the GE dosen’t turn out as bad as predicted for the SNP, and Yousaf hangs on. I don’t think that would be a great outcome, though to be honest there’s no obvious successor.
Jeff, I base my conclusion on the actions taken by the SNP not what people say. What do you base your conclusion on that I am " wide of the mark".
Delete" No obvious successor " - not exactly a ringing endorsement there Jeff. Why do you think that is?
“ No obvious successor " - except there is. Her name is Kate Forbes.
DeleteSouthside Ian
Replying to Jeff McClean - HY hanging on would be a terrible result.
DeleteSouthside Ian
Agree, Humza would be safe with these results.
ReplyDelete-- Derek.
And independence therefore scuppered.
DeleteWell with guys like you running the SNP and independence down intentionally seems you are happy with that scenario. C’mon the underminers how do you intend to get independence?
DeleteHow do you intend to get it? Vote SNP for the umpteenth time?
DeleteAnon at 12:43, how do you intend to get it?
DeleteWhat’s going to be achieved by people shunning the SNP?
So you haven't got an answer yet demand one from everyone else. A typical member of the SNP cult, head in the sand and fingers in the ears. What a clown!
DeleteAnon@1:01 I don't know what is achieved by shunning the SNP, but I do know what's achieved by voting SNP - sweet Fanny Adams judging by the last ten years.
DeleteWhat’s going to be achieved by people shunning the SNP?
DeleteIt might encourage them to remove their unpopular leader, take a more proactive stance on independence and win back some support before the much more important 2026 election. It might also not do those things, but at least there's a chance. If they get a good-ish result those things will definitely not happen.
Now it's your turn to explain the case against shunning them. What bad thing will actually happen if the SNP lose a lot of seats in a Westminster election?
Humza will look silly and… they’ll need a new leader and… oh…!
DeleteCameron standing shaking hands with mass murderer Netahanyu sums up the UK. I've never been more disgusted by the UK. England a colonial oppressor standing shoulder to shoulder with another colonial oppressor.
ReplyDeleteThe UK, like every other country wants a ceasefire. However Israel won’t listen to Joe Biden, so what chance the UK?
DeleteYou’re not the only one disgusted with what’s going on in Gaza.
What’s your solution?
" What's your solution" - I've posted it before. Stop selling arms to Israel. Stop taking part in Israel's military operations. Stop giving Israel money. Impose sanctions on Israel. Call out Israel's genocide and colonial apartheid. Call out the Israeli settler violence. Call out the lack of human rights for Palestinians.
DeleteStrange you couldnae work that out for yourself.
Do you get some sort of kick out of taking issue with everybody that posts on here?
DeleteAnon at 12.58pm are you so stupid you cannae even clearly say who you are addressing your query to. If it was to me then anon at 12.26pm asked me what is your solution - I replied. So what are you going on about? Bloody pain in the arse anons.
DeleteAs is pretendy indy for Scotland. Take anti angry pill.
DeletePity for you anon at 2.50pm - there is still to be devolpoed an anti stupid pill.
DeleteSo I just wish we could all get along. A start would be to invent new recipes for cakes and name them for saints, like Michael and Martha. As we eat our saints cakes our thoughts turn to what unites us.
DeleteFatherTedCrilly
ReplyDeleteWhat is the objective of all these Polls, do we really need to be informed/micro managed on a weekly basis ? up one week down the next and comments either positive or negative depending on that weeks results, sorry but I question the need for so many.
Good to hear Humza Yousaf talking up independence at FMQs.
ReplyDeleteFlynn did the same at PMQs. Is there an election soon? Of course there is.
DeleteI take your point, but good to hear nevertheless.
DeleteAnon at 12.56pm - talk is cheap. I'll give you an example - there will be Indyref2 on 19/10/23 no ifs no buts. The SNP are all talk no action especially before an election.
DeleteAll talk, nae troosers.
DeleteTo the question: what’s the solution? Many of us have already posted on this blog our proposed solutions, a lot of which overlap and don’t include HY as FM nor the Greens in government.
ReplyDeleteSouthside Ian
Ok, one more comment and the I’ll wheesht for a bit, promise.
ReplyDeleteIf HY or his advisers are listening (!), my free Comms advice to the FM is stop using the word “cis” as in “cis male” or “cis female”.
It’s hardly common parlance. Spellcheck hasn’t heard of it, at least on my phone. It will confuse some people (‘what’s he on about?’) annoy others (‘don’t use that term about me’) & broadcasts to the world that he’s living in a very small social bubble of folk that are comfy with that term, many of whom may be Green rather than SNP voters anyway.
Overall it’s yet another Humza own goal, and entirely avoidable, since he can make the same points that he wants to without its use.
Southside Ian
That's good advice, Ian. Unfortunately, a virtue-signaller's gotta virtue-signal even if it pisses people off.
DeleteYou might be right. What's the alternative, though? "Non-trans" is a bit cumbersome
Deleteman and women would suffice
DeleteSo will Yousaf tell his family to pray for CIS Men and CIS women and CIS children in Gaza and transmen and transwomen and trans children in Gaza?
DeleteThis bullshit needs to end and politicians trying to impose it on the people of Scotland need to go.
man and women would suffice
DeleteSince trans people are also men and women, how would that suffice? You're making no sense
You do need to use the word cis to indicate if a person is the same gender as assigned at birth.
Delete- Derek.
The point being: should the rest of us be de-normalised to make trans folk supposedly feel better?
DeleteI’m not at all anti-trans, let people be their true selves, but I loathe social engineering of dictating pronouns and insisting we are cis male and cis female all of a sudden. Pure virtue signalling nonsense. The last thing Scotland should be wasting its time on when we have such poverty and inequality as we do. Focus, people! Don’t walk right into this divide and rule ploy.
Hi Derek
DeleteNo you don't. Hope that clears things up.
Cheerio, Southside Ian
We are all the gender assigned at birth. Penis, male, vagina, female - it's not rocket science.
DeleteThe point being: should the rest of us be de-normalised to make trans folk supposedly feel better?
DeleteNot sure what you're on about. I just want to conduct conversations as succinctly as possible, and I don't see why language should be made clumsier than it has to be to make people who have a reflexive aversion to the word "cis" feel better.
It’s his raison d'être in his wee life.
ReplyDeleteSuddenly it's clear the Scot Gov were burying all their bad news earlier. Nobody will be talking about puberty blockers and climate targets now.
ReplyDeleteChecks news for the first time today. Aha! Progress at last.
DeleteImportant to note these are merely allegations at this point even if charges have been brought by the police.
DeleteBBC national news reporting live from outside Sturgeon and Murrells house at lunchtime.
ReplyDeleteHow the mighty have fallen.