Professor John Curtice has summed it up -
"Swinney’s expertise, I think, is being able to say nothing for three minutes. Definitely who you want as your deputy but it’s not the person to front an election campaign."
The problem being that the SNP face one of the most important election campaigns in their history within a few months at most, and the continuity faction are hellbent on installing the ill-suited Swinney to front it. For the second time in just over a year, we're watching them make a destructive mistake in real time. On some sort of level, they probably even know themselves that they're doing the wrong thing, but they don't care, because their priority is different from ours. Faction before country. Faction before party.
There's an extremely silly reason suggested for why Kate Forbes shouldn't want the job right now, and yet it's bandied around dozens of times a day - that she'd be better off waiting until someone else takes the blame for the SNP losing dozens of seats at the general election. I don't know about anyone else, but I don't want Forbes to become leader simply because I think it would be a nice birthday present for her - I want her as leader because my judgement is that she's the person best placed to stop the SNP losing dozens of seats at the general election and thus rescue the independence cause. Installing her five minutes after the avoidable disaster occurs would completely defeat the purpose.
However, the "let her profit from calamity" brigade should realise that even on their own logic, it now makes sense for Forbes to stand, because if she does, Swinney will still be favourite to win and she'll be able to reap the "I told you so" benefits when Swinney falls flat on his face at the general election. She won't be able to do that if she doesn't stand, and especially not if she backs Swinney, because she'd be effectively buying shares in the coming disaster.
To be ideally placed to take over after the general election, she needs people to look back at that point and say "actually, Kate Forbes had the right prescription for avoiding this defeat". But they'll only say that if she stands up to be counted right now.
As an update, Alison Thewliss MP has come out for Swinney.
ReplyDeleteTeam Continuity backs Team Continuity, entirely as expected. Thank you for the shock update. Of far more interest is Carol Monaghan MP's thoughtful comment on why it would be a mistake to elect Swinney.
DeleteThe John Smith Centre has spoken.
DeleteShe’s a naebdy.
DeleteJohn Swinney is a far more competent politician than either Ross, Sarwar or any other Labour or Tory politician in Scotland. He would also not be encumbered by the BHA with the Greens. I think that your assessment of John Swinney comes from 20 years ago. I was very strongly opposed to him during the leadership contest at our Inverness conference back in 2000 as I felt at that time he was not ready for the job. I think that my judgement proved to be correct, but over the years I have watched him developing into a far more effective and authorative politician and I think that his time is now. John is no Salmond or Sturgeon (very few politicians in the world are) and he is possibly more in the mould of the late Gordon Wilson. I thought that Gordon was a very good leader of the SNP and I think that John will prove to be the same.
ReplyDeleteNo, my assessment doesn't come from twenty years ago, although he hasn't actually changed that much. His basic weaknesses remain the same. In a leadership debate he'd be likely to send people to sleep by as Curtice puts it "saying nothing for three minutes". Gordon Wilson was actually a much more forceful speaker than Swinney.
DeleteThe SNP ran a very successful minority government from 2007 to 2011.
DeleteThat's not much of an answer. The minority government from 2007 to 2011 survived because it found a majority of votes through various deals with the opposition - principally the Tories, whose price included no indyref.
DeleteOnly the Tories, Labour, Greens or Liberals have enough MSPs to provide the SNP with a majority.
I am worried if you put John Swinney in front of an owl and a banana he would pick the kitten.
DeleteWe should all be thankful Swinney is no Sturgeon, that would be the end of the SNP.
DeleteThey all have weaknesses. But Forbes' weakness is that she's a rabid Christian who denies science I.e. reality and is totally at odds with the vast majority of scotland. She shouldn't even be in parliament, let alone tolerated by the SNP (though she must be as we need to convince.Christians that they're relevant for now), and she certainly shouldn't be anywhere near leadership with a compromised brain as hers is.
DeleteWhat a nasty thing to say. I was raised as an agnostic/atheist by an agnostic mum and atheist dad but all four of my grandparents were devout Christians. I would never be so dismissive of views held to varying degrees by billions of human beings around the world whatever their faith. Forbes wouldn't roll back rights for LGBT people like myself or abortion access for women - and anyone with half a brain knows neither the SNp or the Unionists would let her anyway. And I'm pretty certain my fellow Scots are more tolerant towards people of different views than the intolerant elites in Edinburgh- whose views you seem to share.
DeleteThis is 100% correct.
DeleteForbes already stated her position at the last leadership race.
Although she does not approve of same sex marriage or abortion, there is no way she would undermine current legislation. As for 'denying' science look no further than the 'Transwomen are women' faction in the SNP.
Once saw John Swinney give a speech at Carnoustie Golf Hotel as part of a tourism conference. He came just after a very charismatic speaker and sent everybody to sleep. Not got anything against the guy but he hardly lights up a room
ReplyDeleteI hear you light up a room by leaving it.
DeleteI met him at a charity do once.
DeleteCould I just say to the Astroturfers For Swinney campaign that I've got your number and my tolerance for what you're attempting to do is decreasing by the minute.
ReplyDeleteWe've been reading your forbes' campaigning for a year.
DeleteJohn Swinney is a wonderful deputy but even he knows he is no leader. AND all this religious objection to Forbes (I think ALL religions are fantasies) is ridiculous-what % of SNP supporters believe whatever it is Yousaf or Swinney believe? Forbes is charismatic and Swinney is the very reverse of that. Voting for Swinney is a guarantee of a crushing defeat.
ReplyDeleteAndrew Neil: “The fall of Humza Useless means independence is dead for a generation. The only legacy of the SNP is decline and decay”.
ReplyDeleteOnly the deluded would disagree with these sentiments.
Absolutely. Yousaf was a God-like figure and without him we have no chance.
DeleteCalm down britboy. Silly billy. Handled properly this can rejuvenate the SNP. And despite all the apparent turmoil support for Indy still on the up.
ReplyDeleteForbes if she stands won’t get elected if ALBA backs her.
ReplyDeleteThe SNP as it stands, focusing on hyper-individualistic cultural politics, will not get elected.
DeleteYouGov?
ReplyDeleteThe question is not; who would win a free and fair leadership election (presumably Forbes would), it’s does Jackson’s Entry still have the will and means to jury-rig the election as was done for Yousaf?
ReplyDeleteThe rigging process may have included employing legions of “ghost voters”, kept on the Party electoral roll by wee Peter courtesy of various dodgy financial shenanigans. Party finances being as they are with at least one General Election to face, it’s doubtful Murray Foote has the luxury of getting Swinney apart the winning post. Perhaps we’ll find out what the actual Party membership numbers are?
KC, I'm not going to let you tell blatant lies. The Yes vote in the latest YouGov poll is *seven per cent* higher than you claim.
ReplyDeleteFrom Wikipedia,
DeleteYouGov 26-29 April 2024.
Yes 39%
No 45%
Undecided 9%
So as I said, Yes on 39% excluding undecideds.
I know the figures don’t add up to 100%, but a 6 point lead for No nevertheless.
that 9% is highest it's been in a while, if true?
DeleteI know it's still 91% decided but even 1 in 10 seems more than usual.
Anon 12:44, I don't think you know what 'excluding' means.
DeleteI think a lot of people are vastly overestimating Swinney’s chances against Forbes if it goes to the membership.
ReplyDeleteHumza was many things - but he was charismatic and slick, and she still ran him within a few thousand votes.
Swinney is neither of those things. He’d be totally out of his depth in a head to head with Forbes.
The odds would be against her, but yes, she'd probably handily win the TV debates and that would leave the members with a big dilemma. They have a sentimental attachment to Swinney, but does that extend to electing the obviously inferior candidate?
DeleteIndeed, they’ll only ever be a fringe party.
DeleteYou're right. Only fringe parties form government for 17 years.
DeleteForbes is still considering standing, according to supporters
ReplyDeleteGood.
DeleteSarwar is keeping his motion on the table.
ReplyDeleteIt will be a pleasure to see Labour defeated in the vote
The motion will, in all probability, be defeated, however the inevitable will only be delayed. The SNP are on the way out.
DeleteFor that to happen, Labour would have to get more votes, and that does not look likely.
DeleteNominations open until Monday.
ReplyDeleteSo realistically, in order to get the required supporters in time, what is the time limit to announce that you're standing?
Those who have met Swinney can attest that he is a nice person.
DeleteExplain this please
ReplyDelete"The problem being that the SNP face one of the most important election campaigns in their history within a few months at most"
There is zero chance of an independence referendum at this precise juncture of this election. The ship sailed a year or so ago when SNP got itself in a muddle and didn't create a new Yes Scotland group with Greens, Alba, SSP or whatever they are called now.
Therefore this election is absolutely not about independence, the parties raison d'etre. It is about everything else a political party needs to work on. A political party that will have a future. There is absolutely no point in pretending this is more important than 2007, 2015 or 2019. It's the downward curve but it's not likely to be an extinction event.
The most important election will be in 2026 and beyond. By which time, possibly Forbes or someone else has come forward. No point using your good betting money on a dud race. Wait til things have changed.
Nope. That is totally misconceived. If the SNP suffer a heavy defeat in the general election, 2026 becomes almost an irrelevance. The important election is upon us right now, and it simply has to be won.
DeleteDid Napoleon think the important battle was going to be after Waterloo? Maybe he did.
I get your meaning but I actually, respectfully, disagree. Napoleon isn't a political party.
DeleteThe Labour party had one seat in 2015. They are now in striking distance. Their most important election ever was not 2016. It will be 2024 and 2026. You have to understand the ebb and flow. Waterloo was the end. 2024 isn't the end for the SNP. It's too big a force. Even at a low ebb, it's not inconceivable it could still beat Labour. Labour were pulverised in the opposite viewpoint and are now coming back. SNPs well of support is bigger than Labour's nowadays, it's just unenthused.
"Waterloo was the end."
DeleteExactly. It was the end. Are you sure you've grasped this analogy? The point I'm making is that the result of the 2026 election won't make a damn bit of difference if independence has already been pulverised by the result in 2024. Westminster will just yawn and say "get back to us when you have your Commons majority back", which will probably be never.
2026 is the most important election this side of the 30s. For it to count, the SNP must somehow win a majority again.
DeleteI do not believe it can do that by limping into it with 19 years of governing baggage. We must learn from Sunak and the Tories' mistake in not immediately calling an election - they would have lost as we will lose, but the scale of the loss matters.
As things stand, the SNP will remain largest party but will be outnumbered by an unionist coalition. This will be painful, but it gives us a much better chance of charging back in 2026.
The alternative is to do what Sunak did: hang on and lose badly. Then we're screwed until 2031.
Westminster elections are a distraction. Our MPs, whoever they are, don't matter - that's one of the very reasons we want to get out of the UK. We have an excellent opportunity to show that Holyrood turnout has overtaken Westminster turnout in Scotland.
Folk seem to forget Holyrood is a proportional voting system. It was never designed to have 1 winner.
DeleteI don't think it's inconceivable that SNP could stage a comeback, a much stronger one, than Labour are tepidly clawing at now.
DeleteI don't believe it is "the end". Not by a long shot.
Reason being I can't be alone in hearing people who are basically still SNP leaning who are less than happy with them. There are many independence supporters who cannot be bothered voting SNP at every election, governing prior to independence. But Independence still looms large. It will rear its head again.
most of my peer group are unenthused former SNP voters who still support independence. They don't see independence as an immediate priority but it does still feature as an important element of scottish politics. To deny that is to deny reality.
DeleteBoth Forbes and Swinney did not attend the parliamentary meeting this afternoon
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't predict who SNP members would vote for - I went to an SNP meeting once and the people there were either connected to the Moon with a wire, or terrifying. Looks like whoever gets punted as the next FM will be very flawed, but there is a choice of flaws. When's Alex Salmond getting ousted? Alba haven't gone anywhere throughout his leadership. Have the Alba membership not noticed?
ReplyDeleteI have went to many SNP meetings. Not once was there a wire connecting to the moon. I think you must be eating too many mushrooms
DeleteShe IS a mushroom 🍄 😍
DeleteAnyway, nice to see that Swinney is getting into the Easter spirit of resurrection, although you're supposed to have a pulse after resurrection.
ReplyDeleteThe most important question about this leadership election is :Who can move us forward to independence? John Swinney is experienced and I like him,but I dont think that he is a charismatic leader.However,for me,my vote will be based on who I think is best able to,convince no voters that independence is strongly linked to what is important to them,health,education,cost of living education of poverty,the environment,international relationships,and so on.Additionally,I want a clear answer clear answer about how to respond effectively when Westminster says no.I believe that Kate Forbes is likely to be the best candidate,and if she stands,I will probably vote for her.
ReplyDeleteTell that to the lunatic irish who with less resources have a higher GDP than us.
DeletePerhaps but even now despite all the utter nonsense going on in the SNP just now a very significant minority …… it quite amazing and gratifying how robust the support for independence
Deletethe latest polls show both the union and independence are in the minority, you clown.
Deleteafter 300 years of propaganda and entire states against it, independence is STILL supported by a huge swathe of the population.
Neither side are the settled will. That much is clear.
Independence certainly isn’t the settled will, and never will be, you clown!
DeleteSo you agree then. Neither are particularly backed to high heaven is the point, payaso. plus or minus a few percentages, we're a split nation. Young folk prefer independence in europe, older folk prefer status quo. How that develops is anyone's guess and won't go away as a topic until something is clear.
Delete
DeleteAnonymousApril 30, 2024 at 4:57 PM
“Independence certainly isn’t the settled will, and never will be, you clown!”
Neither is the current arrangement of Union & limited Devolved powers.
If it was the settled will, none of us would be here. You would be elsewhere, trolling the internet, calling people names, acting beneath yourself, & contributing nothing of note to the world or people you choose to interact with.
Pleb.
Anon at 6:10, desperate stuff.
DeleteIn the face of this clown show, I have my doubts that people will want to wait 2 years until the next Holyrood election. Not only does it look like a fea-circus, remember that we are being governed by a party who's recent long-standing CEO has been charged with embezzlement. And we know who his wife is.
ReplyDeleteYou don’t like him, do you? Maybe let the judicial system do its work and the rest of us plan to the best of our abilities for our countries future.
DeleteThe problem for Forbes is she is not a "unity" candidate, not that she isn't a "continuity" candidate.
ReplyDeleteThe SNP needs a fresh face but it also needs someone to pull them all together. Sadly, the media provoked an uproar over the "social conservative" nonsense. I couldn't care less about it but it's not going to unite the party. I'll happily eat my words if she becomes leader and proves us all wrong but I don't want factions. We need everyone pulling together. Do you think that is actually possible or are we too factionalised?
Too factionalised I think. Half the party seem to have more in common with the Greens than any genuine interest in pursuing independence. It was always said that the party would break up into its factions post-independence but it seems to be happening now.
DeleteNo evidence for this. The ALBANISTs may wish for this but their time has gone.
DeleteIndeed, her victory may cause a lot of people to leave, but is that a bad thing?
DeleteWe ceased being a big tent party at some point under Sturgeon, now we are ruled by the "progressive" intolerant faction, who prioritise their rainbow flag waving (and careers) above real thinking and bold vision.
It could very well be that a victory Forbes splits the party further, with the bairn's throwing their tows out the pram, and we risk losing next election. A plus of that direction is an opportunity to rethink and unite.
I also think SNP on a direct path to losing next WM & Holyrood with continuity candidate in charge - except in that scenario there is far less room for reflection & reuniting the party because ultimately, they see Yes and the SNP as their toy & won't less the rest of us play.
When Stuegeon and Salmond were named leader, did members want to leave?
DeleteThere's your answer.
Anon at 6.26
DeleteSturgeon and Salmond were once in a generation politicians that the SNp were lucky to have one after another. But any leader (Swinney) who sticks to the Greens, who -even as an LGBT person who most people would probably think is "woke"- I am thoroughly sick of cos there extreme views are making loads of Scots think of people like me as being a bunch of crazy pervs, is going to lead the SNp to defeat in 2026. If the SNP split because Forbes becomes leader, that's the fault of the "our way or else" continuity faction, not her and her far more sensible and -ironically- tolerant supporters.
Swinney is Christian too, why are the Greens not having problems with him, just with Forbes?
ReplyDeleteThere is no need to convince No voters, if those who are still alive from the first referendum repeat exactly their vote, plus the newer generation of voters, are enough to win any new referendum
ReplyDeleteLOL 🤣🤣
DeleteForbes has to stand for the reasons you state but the SNP has to get out of the rut it' craved out for itself. Difficult unless they deliberately create a constitutional stooshie by withdrawing all MPs pre election. Can't see it happening because they're so assimilated in the britnat system. The SNP is the IPP. Ironic that rabid britnats see them as an enemy to their dysfunctional union. If I was a member I'd vote for Forbes.
ReplyDeleteAnon at 3:10, 3:15 and 3:17(twice) desperately patrolling btl with anti-Alba, pro-SNP comments in the hope he comes over as more than one person.😂😂😂
ReplyDeleteI think the only ones worth considering are Forbes and Swinney, and I'd say it's likely they'll be the last two. Both have their supporters, Forbes more members than electees perhaps.
ReplyDeleteSo if Swinney wins he should have Forbes as his Finance Secretary, and if Forbes wins Swinney should be given some sensible position like GERS mapping to projected finances of an Independent Scotland, with an online model available for people to play with. Something I was desperate to see done during the first indy ref.
Going out on a limb, I'd say that having Swinney at the finance secretary helm during Iref was a big plus point, no matter how much the media misrepresented him. GERS showed a £4.4 billion bounty for iScotland, and every department head was spending ALL of it on new hospitals, schools, roads, etc. That famous memo that the BT lot put yellow postits on was actually a warning by Swinney that the £4.4 billion was shared, not each!
Can't find it quickly, but Forbes when Finance Secretary wanted to create a model of the iScotland economy, to run alongside GERS. Unfortunately that got overtaken by weddings and family (luckily for her)! As for her commitment to Independence, it's blatantly obvious. As Finance secretary and understanding GERS she, like me, knew that though hard work would be needed and vision, the finances of an iScotland would be far healthier than now. My previous life involved finance, economics, stats, models, all that sort of stuff. She knew her onions.
"It is important to stress that 40 per cent of spending and 70 per cent of revenue income in GERS, combined with key powers over the economy, are reserved to the UK Government and outside the control of the Scottish Government.
“An independent Scotland would have the power to make different choices, with different economic budgetary results." Forbes, 26 Aug, 2020.
https://www.holyrood.com/news/view,gers-figures-show-why-scotland-needs-to-be-independent-kate-forbes-says
I would say for Indy, take a chance and vote Forbes. But she needs to show something to try to unite the Indy movement, and perhaps even the SNP as well!
Forbes says she's definitely considering standing, and noboby from SNP is asking her not to run
ReplyDeleteSo, unlike when we get an unelected PM, no cries of “democratic outrage “ from nationalists as we’re soon to have another unelected FM😀
ReplyDeleteLike in Wales you mean?
DeleteIn this time of crisis we need an experienced steady hand. It has to be John Swinney.
ReplyDeleteIs a real live human being actually writing this?
DeleteIf so can you pass your meds around
They are clearly very good!
We'll be hearing about Swinney's 'sureness of touch' before long.
DeleteYeah, just imagine having an FM as a key witness in the SNP Finances trial (Murrell charged already, others still under investigation)… Not to mention also the other trial of Scot Gov Malfeasance for handling of Salmond case.
DeleteThe steady hand of involvement.
Agreed. Spinney is popular and respected with the public as a whole and it's the public as a whole who'll be voting. Let SNP "supporters" vote for Labour if they don't like Swinney. Then they were liars in the first place.
DeleteAs if we’d vote Labour. Real Yes will vote SNP1 (grudgingly ) Alba 2 if Swinney wins
DeleteIf Kate Forbes wins, that vote remains the same, but Fake Yes will vote Labour and Green, where they’ve all come from.
Disappointing YouGov poll on independence just out.
ReplyDeleteYou are not a member and you regularly attack the SNP. Not. Your. Business.
ReplyDeleteDon't think your comment, JRT, will be around much longer on this blog...
DeleteSo do you prefer Harvie and Slater to attack the SNP and even decide who or who not, can be the SNP Leader, rather than people like me who have voted SNP when the vote counts like after Devolution, joined the SNP for 3 years after Indy Ref 1, was co-opted onto the committee probably because I was one of the very few who bothered going to meetings, has still voted SNP afterwards?
DeleteAnd you tell the likes of me that the leader of the SNP is none. of. my. business.?
No wonder the SNP have plummeted in the polls with that sort of self-righteous attitude - an attitude which is unfortunately quite common.
I hope James doesn't delete your comment. It's a prime example of what is wrong with the SNP.
Well said indyref2. Everyone who isn't of the hive mind is dismissed by the cult. How do they expect to reach out to former No voters when they hold fellow Yessers in such contempt.
DeleteIt's a shame, maybe a sign of the times. The poster is well known as a staunch Indy supporter, yet we stab each other in the back and imagine each other as enemies. What a load of crap.
DeleteI see Skier is all in for Swinney. Could Forbes ask for any mightier an endorsement than that?
ReplyDeleteAnonymous at 2.52 pm
ReplyDelete" Swinney is a Christian to, why no problem with him ?
Swinney is a member of the Church of Scotland.
They have women ministers and elders.
They also have Gay ministers.
They accept the Theory of the Earths Evolution as a scientific fact
I don't know for certain but I presume John Swinney is ok with above.
Forbes is a member of the Free Church of Scotland.
They do not allow Women ministers or Elders.
They do not allow Gay Ministers or Elders.
They believe the earth was created 6000 years ago and do not accept the Theory of Evolution.
I know for certain that Forbes accepts the above as she has said she agrees with it.
Could this be why they question her.
She has every right in our society to believe what she wants but must accept that she will be questioned on it as a public figure.
Is Swinney CofS? I've been reading elsewhere he is RC although I never thought he was. It shows how confusing the Internet can be.
DeleteI don't think the SNP are making a mistake with Swinney ,or with Humza. What they are doing is deliberate. They are not blind. They know Humza or Swinney are not the peoples choices.
ReplyDeleteBut they are putting party before country . This is all about the SNP. They genuinely don't care about anything other than their narrow insular beliefs.
It's why the SNP needs to die to be reborn.
The story of Scotland throughout the ages - divided and conquered . Unbelievable that independence supporters can’t unite till it happens and then go their separate political ways.
ReplyDeleteSwinney another continuity chimp.
ReplyDelete10 Reasons he should retire not return.
1. He was useless as Leader previously.
2. He was useless during The Smith Commission negotiations.
3. He is a pal of Douglas Alexander.
4. He was Sturgeon’s tea boy
5. He never asked where is the ring fenced £600k.
6. He is the accountant and Deputy FM who failed to spot that the £600k had vanished in the SNP accounts.
7. He covered up Sturgeon’s wrongdoings in her persecution of Salmond by redacting every document he got hold of.
8. He is the accountant who couldn’t come up with a replacement for GERS.
9.He is a devolutionalist.
10. He is a charisma free boring chump.
SNP members will vote for him.
The preferred choice of MI5/6
ReplyDelete