Labour 452 (+249)
Conservatives 80 (-285)
Liberal Democrats 53 (+42)
SNP 40 (-8)
Greens 2 (+1)
Scottish seats projection:
SNP 40 (-8)
Labour 13 (+12)
Liberal Democrats 4 (-)
Conservatives 0 (-6)
Wednesday, February 14, 2024
Find Out Now MRP projection suggests SNP will win landslide, Labour will flop in Scotland, and the Tories will be wiped out
GB seats projection for next general election:
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Don't know which polling company to believe.
ReplyDeleteProbably Find Out Now.
DeleteThis is a good poll for the SNP!
ReplyDeleteIt is above my expectations. SNP would be utterly delighted if this were the outcome, after what has been a difficult period.
DeleteLike all Find Out Now polls, this should be taken with a very large pinch of salt.
ReplyDeleteTo what aspect of their methodology do you object?
DeleteHe objects to the results.
DeleteIs it a landslide when you’re still losing seats? And is Labour really flopping when every single gain in Scotland is theirs? I’d call it small beans, compared to expectations, but the direction of travel remains theirs.
ReplyDeleteMind, looking at England: I just don’t believe that projection for a moment! The Tories floor is 160+ like they held in 1997-2001. Starmer is no Blair. It doesn’t square at all. Not without a huge disruption from a third party drawing almost exclusively Tory votes.
Yes, a landslide is a large majority - 40 against 13 is a very large majority
DeleteGetting 70% of seats is very much landslide territory, regardless of how many you've lost. Likewise, Labour only getting into the low double digits seat-wise in Scotland, in a context where they blast through Blair's 1997 majority and then some, is a bit of a flop.
DeleteI'd be very surprised if those numbers come to pass, personally. But after the year the SNP have had, if they managed to achieve a seat count equivalent to Scottish Labour's tally in 2010, I'd expect they'd be over the moon.
As for Labour, expectations have now been set so high (but by themselves and the media) that getting as few as 13 seats would look like a damp squib. A few years ago they'd have been absolutely delighted at that. Now they'd be privately fuming.
It’s only one poll, but certainly encouraging for the SNP. I’ve been increasingly impressed with Yousaf in recent weeks, maybe he’s the man to take us forward after all.
ReplyDeleteBe interesting to see the next few polls though.
How is he supposed to have improved? Would you say, by any chance, that he’s “settling into the role?” ;-)
DeleteWe can all agree.
DeleteHis sureness of touch is truly growing on us.
DeleteMatheson’s firmness of grip was his own business til he billed it to the public purse.
DeleteThe polls released this past 10 days seem to be all over the place. Is any one of them more reliable than another?
ReplyDeleteYes, this one is the most reliable.
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DeleteFind out Now polls are highly reliable as far as I’m concerned.. The results of other polling firms should at the very least be looked at with a bit of scepticism.
DeleteYes, I'm afraid I must agree.
DeleteSarwar said on an STV interview that he isn't for Independence, and that a Lab governament would not allow a second referendum.
ReplyDeleteSo why would any Yes supporter with half a brain vote for this gang?
Because within the set of issues considered it's not a vote-determining issue for such voters.
DeleteBecause people don’t believe Humza either.
DeleteAstonished if that's how it pans out but you'd take that right now. I have sensed a very fractional "I'm scunnered with the SNP but the inevitable Scottish Labour sneering at independence" is too much to bear, in the last few weeks. The Sturgeon whatsapps about Johnson were the first positive chat about the SNP in years amongst my group of friends.
ReplyDeleteAt last some much needed good news for the SNP.
ReplyDeleteYes but let’s see a few more positive polls. It is encouraging though.
DeleteDetailed analysis of thenprojection here:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_vipoll_20240215.html