Labour 41% (-5)
Conservatives 29% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 11% (+1)
Reform UK 8% (-1)
SNP 3% (+1)
Greens 3% (-)
The simple enough answer to the question I posed in the title of this blogpost is that the poll is more likely to be an outlier than anything of huge concern for Starmer, because most recent polls from other firms do not show a similar slump in the Labour lead. However, there is one partial exception - a More In Common poll conducted between the 7th and 11th of this month shows the Labour lead dropping to 11 points. More In Common are on the Tory-friendly end of the spectrum, so such a result is not as significant as it would be from another firm, but nevertheless it'll be worth keeping an eye on GB-wide polls in the coming days to see if this might be the start of a new trend.
One thing I do find interesting about the Savanta poll is that Reform UK have more than twice the support of the Greens, which is very different from the pattern shown by many polls. It points to a theoretical path towards a more telling Tory recovery, because if the Tories prove able to squeeze the Reform UK vote as polling day approaches, Labour wouldn't be able to offset that by squeezing the Green vote.
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Before we finish, a reminder that the Scot Goes Pop opinion poll fundraiser urgently needs a boost - let's not leave it in limbo for months. It's important that not all Scottish opinion polling is commissioned by anti-independence clients - we need to make sure that occasionally questions are asked that Yes supporters want asked. Donations can be made via the fundraiser page HERE.
However if you have a Paypal account the best way to donate is via direct Paypal payment, because that can totally eliminate fees depending on which option you select, and payment usually comes through instantly. My Paypal email address is:
jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk
If Labour lose the general election, the shock and horror would be so huge—Tory rule continues even after this!?!??!!!?— that we really could ride it all the way to independence.
ReplyDeleteCarry on Starming!
The SNP have no power over people's ideological belief systems or the English government's power over the media
DeleteThe constant political moan by Alba supporters that somehow the SNP are not using the correct persuasion is easily seen through as total fakery for political point scoring
No one on the face of this earth is going to change the minds of the Orange Lodge or Rangers supporters of pearl clutching die hard Tories embedded in Scotland's communities, these people were placed in Scotland to deny the people of Scotland that which they want
England opposes democracy in Scotland and will employ every strategy to keep ownership of our country, that includes filling the internet up with fake individuals pretending to support independence and complaining about the SNP
This is one of the reasons Alba exists, well that and the destruction of Nicola a Sturgeon, which Alba still has not achieved despite all its efforts, oh and still has no legitimate elected member of anything anywhere
All Alba has is fakes
Alba has four elected representatives and they're all "legitimate", to use your word - they wouldn't be there if they weren't.
DeleteAll Alba are going to do is take some votes off the SNP in the seats they contest. I fail to see what this’ll achieve, other than possibly handing seats to Labour, or possibly even the Tories or LDs depending on where the stand candidates.
DeleteAre you the same Anon as at 2.39? If so, that's a completely different point from your more general rant earlier, and it certainly has nothing to do with what I said in my own comment. *All* pro-independence parties have a responsibility to avoid splitting the Yes vote, and *all* are potentially failing to live up to that responsibility right now - not least with the SNP stupidly planning to stand against Angus MacNeil.
DeleteHear hear: standing against MacNeil is bloody daft and vindictive.
Delete@whining anon: According to you, then, indy is impossible to achieve. It's not. Have some bloody gumption man and try! You and your party of fearties.
No different anon.
DeleteMy comment was a bit off topic, but stand by my point, do agree with you though James, esp regarding Western Isles seat.
I agree standing against MacNeil is a needless problem created. I also think its not an easy position to step aside for someone you've expelled, that would look like weakness and incoherent. It's not just some random independent with a local following, it's a member you have specifically suspended from the party. Actually the best option is if the SNP and MacNeil bury the hatchet and present as an SNP candidate as normal. This would be best for Scottish independence which should be the overriding aim.
DeleteI really like the passion of Alba, but let's face it, Salmond is loved by us and smeared by the vast, vast majority. Not like before where the completely against grudgingly respected his political acumen and gravitas. I'd love to see it change and hope his legacy outshines the muck. A number has been done on him whether we like it or not. I really believed he could get elected in the initial election and it feels more and more like that seed had to germinate then for it to take hold. If that had happened and success bagged, we could easily have said Alba is a Scottish Parliament party only and will push the SNP there. Without that success, Alba feel they need to go for it at every opportunity.
On the other hand, I have huge respect for all involved in trying to put the shoulder to the wheel and democracy is about choices. The SNP were too timid after Nicola's de facto vote call to arms and have left themselves in a no man's land. People deserve a choice rather than blindly having to vote SNP all the time. I honestly think a crucial amount of SNP voters that have changed to Labour is boredom and familiarity breeds contempt as much as any particularly bad policy. It only takes a few %s to influence.
Alba only have representatives due to a technicallity. The last council elections resulted in zero Alba councillors anywhere. That included the Alba councillors that were in office due to a technicallity prior to the election. I think that after the GE they will have one representative due to a technicallity, and I wouldn't hold any hope for her in the Holyrood election. What then? I think the choices might be dissolution, or continuation as a completely irrelevant fan-club.
DeleteEr, nope. In this country, parliamentarians and councillors are elected as individuals, not as party delegates. They are permitted to change party affiliation during their term of office, and sometimes do. That's not a "technicality", it's the law, and it's how things have worked for centuries, long before universal suffrage.
DeleteA slight non-sequitur, but I do find it strange in a post when some people are referred to by surname, and others by first names. In the case of Salmond/Nicola etc. I believe it reflects common usage, but the fact that usage is common in the first place is weird.
DeleteNicola was cultivated as the type of leader she was it wanted to be. On your side, sharp.
DeleteSalmond was a statesman. I wouldn't call him Alex and it wasn't cultivates by his team.
Different styles, both excellent in their day.
Too quick and typos above but point being I don't think it was a negative, it's just different styles of leadership bring different naming convention. Plenty examples in history and current of both surname and first name usage, nothing weird about it.
DeleteYou're spot on with your point about Reform UK being an excellent target for Tory votes, James. They've no chance at winning a seat anywhere, but their projected vote total is pretty huge. Rich pickings for a chest-thumping, burn the migrants campaign.
ReplyDeleteIf Labour had to choose a way to lose this election, it would start now and it would look like their current troubles. Still unlikely, but it's just beginning to look possible they could screw it…
The right wing media are going to rip Starmer apart over the next few months. Since 1974, no party has formed a government without the support of the Murdoch press.
ReplyDeleteI still think Labour will probably win but I don't think it will be a landslide and possibly not even an outright majority.
There may be some truth in that, but what puzzles me is *why* the Murdoch press aren't backing Starmer. Normally they reconcile themselves to the situation and get behind a likely winner, especially one who has moved as far to the right as Starmer has.
DeleteGood point.
DeleteI can't shake the impression that Starmer's lot are a pale copy of Blair's government in waiting, especially when it comes to media management. Alasdair Campbell had the press by the balls, and eating from his other hand, simultaneously. Where is that tight, downright incestuous, relationship now? This just doesn't feel like 1997.
I don't doubt Labour could and should win. Polls speak far louder than feels. But the resulting Labour government won't have the first class honeymoon that Blair had.
Doesn't Murdoch just sense the mood and pick accordingly?
DeleteThe Tories and media weirdly, in my view, thought the red wall was a Tory wall. It never was! Clearly it was a "get brexit done' from the ordinary labour leaning north. It didn't turn them into one nation tories and that was going to come home to roost once brexit was no longer the big topic.
Its important to remember that these percentages move around due to sampling error from one sample to another with a Normal distribution which has an asymptotic mean on the population value and a bell-shaped probability density function. To be a couple of standard deviations below the mean is something that is to be expected from time to time, with enough polling.
ReplyDeleteLast sentence should say: "To have an average percentage that is a couple of standard deviations below the mean is something that is to be expected in an individual poll, given random sampling, from time to time."
ReplyDeleteLong shot, but could you glean anything from the poll about what Labour's lead would be if you stripped out their votes in Scotland?
ReplyDeleteI see Starmer doesn't even trust Sarwar to do the party political broadcast for the so-called Scottish Labour Party. Is he maybe going to sack Sarwar and run the branch from London? So, nothing changes?
ReplyDeleteKnowing what I know about Kier Starmer, yes, what you suggest is indeed very possible.
DeleteThe problem for Labour, basically, is that Starmer has all the personality of a supine possum. With apologies to the poor innocent possum.
ReplyDeleteReform UK will be 'bought off' come election time, same as the Brexit Party was back in 2019.
ReplyDeleteAnonymous at 3.57pm. MacNeil sacked himself. The suspension he was given was akin to a wee slap on the wrist. Instead of accepting it, he threw the toys out of the pram. I don't want us to lose the seat but the initiative lies in MacNeil's own hands. If he wants to rejoin the SNP then he knows the procedure.
ReplyDeletePersonally (as an ex Labour member who knows the party well), I believe the events of this week are merely the tip of the iceberg for Sir Keir Starmer, the lid is well and truly off, and a bloodbath within Labour will ensue.
ReplyDeleteThis has the potential to run in the coming months to the stage where either
a)Starmer's position becomes untenable, or,
b)The left and right of the party becomes so irreconcilable that it splits.
The sheer reach and influence of social media nowadays will wash away without trace any attempts by the media to suppress this and "cushion" the blows for Starmer.
I was aware of rumblings within the party and anticipated a furore within the party post-GE (and majority), but it may well be the tragic events in Gaza have, by default, dictated the timing of this in Labour.
The halves stuck together during the widely publicised Corbyn insurgency (besides The Independent Group, who all duly lost their seats). Labour’s many things but it doesn’t often split. The outcome is always the same: the splitters melt away into obscurity.
Delete