Thursday, November 2, 2023

Polling respectability for Alba after the Ash Regan defection

Someone made a sarcastic comment on my previous post about the new opinion polls, along the lines of "Alba cooking with gas, James?"  No idea what that was all about, because the numbers are actually perfectly decent for Alba in the wake of Ash Regan's defection - 

Scottish Parliament constituency ballot (Redfield & Wilton) :

SNP 34% (-1)
Labour 30% (+1)
Conservatives 22% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 8% (-2)
Alba 2% (+2)
Reform UK 2% (+1)
Greens 2% (-1)

Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:

SNP 28% (+2)
Labour 27% (+2)
Conservatives 21% (-4)
Greens 9% (-3)
Liberal Democrats 8% (-4)
Reform UK 4% (+2)
Alba 3% (-)

Of course this underscores what I was saying a couple of weeks ago that there is no evidence that Alba are currently on course to win list seats, but with two-and-a-half years still to go until the Holyrood election it's plainly not an impossible task - doubling their list vote from 3% to 6% should get them a fair number of seats, while one or two seats might conceivably be won even if they were on only 4%.

There's also a point worth making here about the repeated taunt that defectors to Alba are refusing to trigger by-elections because they think they would lose.  Even leaving aside the fact that very, very few defectors in history have resigned their seats (Dick Douglas MP certainly didn't resign when he defected from Labour to the SNP in 1990), there's also the fact that Ash Regan would be fighting a first-past-the-post by-election if she resigned her seat, whereas if she waits until 2026 the most likely route for her re-election is via the list, which is many orders of magnitude less difficult.  Similarly, if Chris Cullen resigned his council seat, he'd effectively have to win his ward outright in the subsequent by-election, which is far more difficult than the task he'll face in a multi-member election in 2027.  People are being a bit mischievous and not comparing like with like.

A couple of other points of note from the Redfield & Wilton poll - firstly, although Keir Starmer has a significant lead over Humza Yousaf on net approval ratings, his lead over Rishi Sunak on the "who would make the best Prime Minister?" question is weirdly low at just 40% to 30%.  This is Scotland we're talking about, where Tory leaders are loathed at the best of times, and this is not the best of times for the Tories.  Starmer, it's safe to say, is not setting the heather alight.

Secondly, one of our resident trolls claimed earlier that the poll showed Yes on 45% of the vote on the indyref question, ie. no improvement since 2014.  'Fraid not, chum.

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 47% (-2)
No 53% (+2)

18 comments:

  1. The Ash Regan disliking MSM Monitor twitter account serms to have disappeared.

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    1. MSM posted that they were closing down. Not sure why but I think they said something about not serving any useful purpose going forward, although I may be wrong about that.

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  2. Independence supporters still waiting for courageous leadership on independence.

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    1. You won't get that from any political party, you'll get promises from those not in power until they get power then it'll stop
      Scotland's parliament is right on the edge of being dissolved and the politicians know it but they can't tell the public, because if they do our parliament will be dissolved even more quickly
      Brexit killed Scotland's politicians ability to reach out for European assistance regarding the law
      Westminster Tory and Labour are ready to shut Scotland down just like Israel is doing with Palestine, except without bombing us
      Only the people can take back Scotland now, and sadly I don't believe there's the appetite for what needs to be done

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    2. I diasgree. Should WM shut down the Scottish Parliament this would probably galvanise the Scottish population to finally go for full on independence. The genie is out of the bottle and there is no turning back. What is lacking is a political vehicle to achieve this...but remember a week is a long time in politics.

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  3. I don't support Alba, but this is a good article:

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/23901100.albas-ash-regan-blames-greens-snps-woes/

    as is the Wings one. When Angus MacNeil went Independent, the SNP disgraced itself, and followed that up by its treatment of Ewing. It didn't learn from this and hence its disgusting treatment of Regan, and Yousaf's petulant and childish sneers at Regan. And its notables are blaming the electorate for not coming out to vote for them or support them in polls. Kind of reminds me of Johann Lamont who blamed the electorate for Labour's downfall.

    The moribund SNP should learn the lessons from one of the past's most respected politicians - Margo MacDonald, and perhaps Regan can have as much - or more - influence at Holyrood. It certainly needs a kick up the backside.

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    1. Admiral you don't support Alba but you don't think much of the SNP so I'm guessing you are a Labour man ( back to your roots eh). That makes sense as Labour like weapons of mass destruction as well. So you claim to want Scottish independence so logically you must think Sarwar will suddenly announce he supports independence once he is elected FM. Aye dream on. One of these strange people who vote Unionist Labour but want independence.

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    2. Are you totally illiterate Cuddy or are you just faking it?

      Once more - I don't support ANY party.

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    3. 不不不不不不 - easily wound up for an Admiral. Who are these people you keep referring to - Cuddy and Cubby - do they share an interest in weapons of war with you. Like trainspotting but for battleships/aircraft carriers/ cruisers ( type this and that ).

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  4. Some people may think I am too harsh when I call the Greens bampots. These are the people who said they would resign if Forbes or Regan were elected SNP leader ( my guess is they wouldn't ). The majority of SNP members voted for Regan and Forbes.

    Now the Bampots claim they are frightened by the presence of Ash Regan in Holyrood as if she is some sort of serial killer. Is wee Patrick wetting himself every day he goes to work. Is big Lorna working out every day to be fit to defend herself. Yet some of the company the Greens keep can be described as very very unsavoury. Bampots the Greens most definitely are and should be nowhere near any government. Like Sturgeon's gang they are parasites on the independence movement.

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  5. If Alba is on 3% then it's narrowing the gap to the minimum required for a list seat. Assuming it does that, which party will they take then from? Will that necessarily be the SNP?

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  6. I now really really wish I had never mentioned that Irish ( or is he Scottish this month?) Skier's Ski slope graph has been posted missing for a long time on WGD. Skier is now flooding the pages of the big dug's blog with graph after graph. Some posts have so many graphs I couldn't even be bothered counting how many there were never mind actually reading what he was prattling on about.

    A couple of typical pish Skier comments did stand out in his posts though.

    Skier says:- " Aye, I think the UKSC court case, hotly followed by Sturgeon being taken out has not killed independence, but the union. Which is of course what you'd expect."
    Strange that comment, as I thought Sturgeon just resigned but Skier probably posted some graph that proved Sturgeon had been assassinated. In the numpty mind she just couldn't possibly have faked it for 8 years and then ran away. Of course the numpty is actually saying that Sturgeon resigning as leader has not reduced the desire for independence. So she ain't that important Skier.

    Skier then also says:- " If we are at 50% yes when the movement has taken such a big morale hit in the form of Sturgeon being forced out/ arrested by the British state .........."

    So Skier now says she wasn't assassinated but she was in fact forced out. So pray tell us Skier WHO forced her out? Was it Blowhard Blackford?
    Was it that scary person called Ash Regan? Was it that nice christian woman Kate Forbes.

    If Sturgeon was forced out then all I have to say to the unknown culprit(s) is why couldn't you have done it 6 years ago.

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  7. We Cannae Hear You Stephen Flynn.

    As ever the English TV broadcaster Sky blanked out Flynn's reply re the Kings speech. Just how much subjugation, subservience and humiliation can the people of Scotland take. Certainly the SNP MPs can take it all. They don't care at the disrespect shown to Scotland's MPs by the Commons and broadcasters. They are happy to get their big salary and expenses and don't care if they are ignored.
    The broadcasters cannae even be bothered to tell viewers not living in England whether the new policies in the speech apply to them or not. England rules and the rest of the constituent parts of the UK don't count.

    If the SNP were not a party of devolution they would have walked out of Westminster never to return. ISP have the correct policy on this subject - like Sinn Fein - do not take your seats in England's parliament. Westminster is just the English parliament with its sovereign English king. Scotland/Wales/ N Ireland are English possessions commonly know as colonies.

    Like Blackford before him Flynn is just humiliated.

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  8. random thought of no real meaning, I just had a flashback to the days of Labour Hame, Better Nation, balastrade ripping of David Meikle, bainprinciple and other scots pol shennagins ; can't believe how far discourse has fallen from all sides.

    There is a lack of dignity in politics now. But almost more importantly, less fun.

    I wonder if we can ever get that back, i'm optimistic. who knows.

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  9. The British Empire was pretty extreme over hundreds of years. Will the Tories declare it to be a terrorist organisation and ban the display of CBE/OBE/ MBE awards as glorifying terrorism.

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  10. I think it's totally hilarious. Labour throwing their toys out the pram because Cameron's back. The far right losing their sense of direction. Salmond says he respects Cameron so he'll be getting abused. I think people underestimated Sunak, and Labour have no chance.

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  11. I dont recall any MP eve giving up thier seats after defecting to another Party. I am of the view that Lisa Cameron should resign though. Her level of treason and dishonesty is breathtaking compared to what all other defectors have done. Defecting to the Tories is in my view something that should be criminalised.

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    1. Surprising there haven’t been more defections from the rotten to the core SNP.

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