Wednesday, November 1, 2023

Two more post-Rutherglen polls: one has the SNP six points behind, the other has them level

The evidence is now beginning to suggest that the SNP did not get away with their Rutherglen defeat, and at least in the short-term it was never particularly likely that they would.  In terms of seats, at least, they are clearly heading for defeat next year, and it seems likely that only drastic action will avert that outcome.  Perversely, though, the SNP leadership are in steady as she goes mode.

Scottish voting intentions for the next UK general election (YouGov / Scottish Election Study, 20th-25th October 2023):

Labour 38%
SNP 32%
Conservatives 16%
Liberal Democrats 5%
Greens 4%

Scottish voting intentions for the next UK general election (Redfield & Wilton, 29th-30th October 2023):

SNP 32% (-2)
Labour 32% (-)
Conservatives 23% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 8% (-1)
Greens 2% (-)

I haven't included percentage changes for the YouGov poll, because on past form the Scottish Election Study's involvement will probably be claimed as meaning that it doesn't technically count as an official YouGov poll.

Someone attempted to post a comment on this blog the other day claiming that Humza Yousaf is now "the most popular politician in Britain".  I didn't publish it because I assumed it was disinformation, albeit of the wishful thinking variety - it must be tempting for Yousaf's supporters to assume that their admiration of his handling of the situation in Gaza is bound to be shared by the wider public and must have transformed his image entirely.  The truth seems to be somewhere in the middle - Redfield & Wilton show his net personal ratings improving to their highest level so far, but he's still in negative territory at -4.  That puts him fifteen points behind Keir Starmer.  So, no, I'm afraid he's nothing like the most popular politician in Britain, even if Starmer plainly does not deserve to be ahead of him.

That said, it's obviously harder to make the case that Yousaf is the SNP's biggest problem (even though ultimately he is) when he's had something of a bounce.  It's a nightmare combination, really - the polling simultaneously shows why the SNP can't just carry on as they are while giving them a ready-made excuse to do just that.


  1. The first one was taken before Labour got into an almighty divisive very public mess over Gaza. Will be interesting to see the effect that will have.

  2. Maybe it's time to make the best of a bad situation ?

    Many of us have spent a long time hoping and trying in various ways, internal and external, to reform the moribund SNP into a viable vehicle for independence. It's been resistant to that and seems firmly set in preferring to be a a career structure. Only an externally inflicted disaster is likely to change that now.

    So, maybe it's time to back away from the troughers and concentrate on building other approaches. The BiS fund raiser, local YES groups and Salvo spring to mind, Alba suits some and there are other possibilities.

    We'd have to underpin this with a firm call to vote SNP in most elections as progressives call for a Labour vote as the lesser evil in England.
    It's tragic that we are reduced to this from the great wave of 2014-'16 but to use a tired old expression - we are where we are.

    If there's a better way let's hear it please !

  3. In the 2015 UK GE the SNP rode the wave of Salmond's work as leader and got 49.97% of the vote. 8 years later Sturgeon's gang have worked their miracle and taken the SNP down to 32% in these polls yet numpty nicophants think Sturgeon is just brilliant and Yousaf is growing in to the role. Who would have thought this was possible back in 2015. Well the Britnats in the SNP certainly did.

    1. Take full control of the SNP. Tick.
    2. Ostracise/expel any significant SNP politicians who want independence. Tick.
    3. Demoralise the 49.97% yes movement. Tick.
    4. Trash Salmond's reputation. Tick.
    5. Try and introduce policies that even independence supporters cannot stomach. Tick.
    6. Shocking levels of incompetence and waste in government. Tick.
    7. Ensure it is illegal to have a referendum without Westminster's permission. Tick
    8. Create a financial scandal. Tick.
    9. Bring bampot Green politicians in to government. Tick.
    10. Appoint a successor to Sturgeon who doesn't seem to like the vast majority of the Scottish population i.e. white people. Tick

    I am sure there are a lot more than the above 10 steps that could be added but the key point for me is that these things did not happen by accident or incompetence. The Brits are in charge of the SNP. Just how low will they drive the support for the SNP down to?