Last week's YouGov poll was the first relatively good poll for the SNP for several months, although the reporting of it was accompanied by a flat statement from John Curtice that the swing back to the SNP wouldn't be enough for them to hold the Rutherglen & Hamilton West constituency in the forthcoming by-election. Although that's true, it doesn't tell the full story.
The 11-point national lead for the SNP in the YouGov poll suggests there has been approximately a 7.5 point swing from SNP to Labour since the 2019 general election. If that swing is applied to the Rutherglen seat, it's enough to put Labour ahead, but only by around five points. In other words, if the YouGov poll is exactly right, Labour should be regarded as favourites in Rutherglen, but the contest should also be regarded as competitive.
Now in practice I would expect Labour to win the by-election by more than five points. The YouGov poll may well flatter the SNP a bit, because it's out of line with what other polls have shown recently. And there are difficult local circumstances for the SNP - they stupidly participated in the prolonged demonisation of their former MP Margaret Ferrier, thus grotesquely allowing sleaze-ridden Labour to present themselves as a new broom. Labour's status as an opposition party in both Holyrood and Westminster makes it a lot simpler for them to attract protest votes. And there have been other miscellaneous problems for the SNP such as the paid leafleters story.
But nevertheless, the YouGov poll is the closest thing the SNP have had to a genuine glimmer of hope since the sorry saga of this by-election started.
If the SNP wins it will only serve as an incentive for the SNP hierarchy to carry on as before - in other words an excuse for concentrating on devolution instead of independence. A SNP win will be a win for the constitutional status quo. Same goes for a "respectable" second place.
ReplyDeleteFWIW I'd abstain if a had a chance to vote in the constituency.
I certainly wouldn't abstain, and I can't understand why anyone else would either. Regardless of my misgivings about Yousaf, I'd vote SNP to try to stop Labour winning and keep the seat in the pro-indy column. Even if you really can't bear to vote SNP, there's ISP as a pro-indy protest option, so there's absolutely no excuse for abstaining.
DeleteEncouraging to read that, although this blog would vote tactically for the SNP in Rutherglen, it retains the realistic attitude that Humza must go.
DeleteOh absolutely. He's the biggest problem.
DeleteThe quickest way to get rid of Yousaf is to make sure the SNP bombs in the by-election. However, if the polls are right he and the SNP will come a decent second but he and the SNP will still see it as some sort of vindication for their inaction.
DeleteDepressingly it looks like Yousaf is here to stay for years, or until the general election at least - where another decent second place will be treated as a good result by Yousaf and the SNP.
I presume there's still been no sign whatsoever of Yousaf instigating an early Holyrood election.
Unionists [and Yousaf] will be more than happy to see the SNP come second. The union is safe in Yousaf's hands.
"The quickest way to get rid of Yousaf is to make sure the SNP bombs in the by-election."
DeleteIf the SNP bombed at the by-election and Yousaf stayed on anyway (which is arguably probable), you'd then feel a bit stupid as an independence supporter for having tried to engineer that outcome.
Currently, I’m minded to abstain in all elections that come my way. I have never once done this before in all my voting years, so that's a giant turnaround for me. Why?
DeleteWell, the SNP's no party of independence now, and there's no signs of life in Alba or the ISP to lend hope they're getting their act together. I’m not voting for a British party, either, so I’m left with either defacing the ballot or joining the many who just won't vote.
Besides, I live in a Lib Dem safe seat (yes, so special!), where my vote is wasted even at the best of times. For the great majority of Yessers who live in SNP/Labour seats, however, the choice is more significant.
I just don't get that. In the context of Rutherglen, if you want to protest against the SNP by abstaining, surely you'd "abstain" by voting ISP? Why not at least record a pro-independence vote, rather than increasing the unionist vote share by neglect?
DeleteI am in the constituency and I am torn between the protest vote of ISP or a vote to deny Labour the seat (which means voting the SNP).
ReplyDeleteIt is so sad that it has come to this especially as Ferrier was a good MP and there was absolutely no need for the SNP to do unionist bidding on this
Fergus Ewing you are 64 of 64 and if our Green masters have their way you will be exterminated. Bow down and be assimilated. Prepare to have your strings pulled by Harvie, Slagter and Co. If you don't meekly submit you will be de-selected like Ferrier. We are the SNP.
ReplyDeleteFrom the Herald: "SNP postpone special meeting of MSP group to discuss Fergus Ewing case" (he has Covid)
DeleteIsn't that very good of them? Not to try, convict and execute him in his absence. The kangaroos will be jumping for joy!
I think he should put forward a counter-proposition: that anyone voting for his suspension next week should be suspended for not having an INDEPENDENT brain. Baaaaaa!
Tae think the SNP of earlier glory years could sink this low.