Wednesday, August 16, 2023

Sensation as support for independence soars in new poll from traditionally No-friendly firm YouGov

Should Scotland be an independent country? (YouGov, 3rd-8th August 2023)

Yes 48% (+3)
No 52% (-3)

It took me a while to doublecheck, but I can confirm that the three point increase in the Yes vote, and the corresponding three point decrease in the No vote, is accurate.  The previous YouGov poll showed a 45/55 split - that was the strange poll that had independence numbers but no party political voting intention numbers.

I must say YouGov's own write-up of this poll seems a touch weird, which I suppose is another way of saying "biased" or "giving rise to suspicions of an agenda".  There is no acknowledgement of the scale of the increase in support for independence - the 52-48 No lead is shorn of all context, as if the fact that No is in the lead is all that matters.  And you'd be forgiven for forming the impression that this is an unalloyed bad news poll for the SNP, whereas in fact it's a rare example under Yousaf of a poll which genuinely offers something positive for the SNP to take from it.  Although the Westminster numbers are very worrying, with the gap between SNP and Labour slumping from nine points to four, the Holyrood constituency results show the opposite trend, with the SNP lead increasing from eight points to a semi-healthy ten, and with the SNP's own vote share moving back into the 40s. The SNP vote is also up two points on the regional list, with the lead over Labour holding steady at four points.  So it's a 'curate's egg' poll for the SNP, not the unmitigated disaster that YouGov are rather suspiciously portraying it as.

The Alba list vote, incidentally, is unchanged at 2%.

14 comments:

  1. One positive from this poll is it indicates Scouter is becoming a bit less unpopular with voters. Maybe he is the man for the job after all lol.

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  2. I hope Alba and Alex Salmond get the credit they deserve for this.

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  3. Another year and once again the SNP has done nothing about the GERS nonsense that allows Alister Union Jack to state on Reporting Scotland that the UK gives everyone in Scotland an extra £2k per head of extra public spending. Aye right Jack old boy.

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  4. It looks like Humza has gone back to no other way than a referendum. He says he has sat up all night and can't think of another way. The SNP are a waste of time.

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    1. Sat up all night - you couldnae make up this shite.

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  5. Mhairi Black has a good approval rating. She has indicated she will be leaving Westminster and there is a rumour she will be getting a Holyrood seat.

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    1. Is minus 1 a "good" approval rating? Better than Yousaf's, admittedly.

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    2. MhĂ iri Black: continuity on steroids. She’ll make a fine successor. Everything’s the tories fault. (Even when Labour’s in power.) Keep voting SNP to indicate sufficient rage against the Tories. We’ll get you Indy next time, honest. The 101st mandate is the charm.

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  6. This poll has Greens on 6 percent at the general election, which is impossibile because they don't stand in many constituencies, many of those votes would go to the SNP candidate

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  7. Can the SNP really take heart from this poll? It's not like they are the only independence party out there, and if there's one thing we can be fairly certain of is that they have a track record of seeking mandates which they fail to even attempt to deliver.
    The independence movement as a whole can take heart from it, because our vote is recovering, in my view, in spite of the SNP and all their shenanigans.
    Yes needs the SNP to remain in power to prevent BritNats retaking Holyrood, but if 56 Westminster MPs achieved nothing, then a drubbing in the London parliament might focus their minds on getting the job right where it matters.

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  8. I think that the changes are a reaction to Labour's stance on the immigration/boats thing *and* the confusion of the 2 child cap pointing out that Labour do view Scottish Labour as a branch organisation. Both of these topics have been prominent in the news at UK level.

    It's not a vote in favour of Humza Yousaf.

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  9. Independence for ScotlandAugust 18, 2023 at 11:11 AM

    Today is National Bubblegum Day in Canada. The numpties at WGD and Nicola Sturgeons Continuity SNP will probably be celebrating that rather than getting on with the job they're payed to do.

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    1. Today is World Helium Day. Release the balloons.

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  10. A nice bottle of Spanish Reserva Rioja will be opened later on in my household. England losers again. Britnats in Labour,Tories, Libdems and SNP will be heartbroken. Never mind their goalie got a funny trophy😂

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