This is another sobering poll for Humza Yousaf. His ill-judged Interflora moment ("you send the abject subservience, we'll send the flowers"), together with the extraordinary revelation that he told SNP parliamentarians that disloyalty to Sturgeon was incompatible with SNP membership, has put paid to any notion that he'll ever be anything more than Sturgeon's handpicked continuity leader. That ties his fate inextricably to his predecessor's - if she comes out of the current process OK, so might he, but if she doesn't, he could well lose his job before the general election simply because he backed her so unreservedly.
However, in one sense the damage is already done for Nicola Sturgeon. You live by the sword and you die by the sword - she and her allies directed Yes supporters and the public to regard Alex Salmond's acquittal as a meaningless technicality, and to view the process against him as sufficient reason for him to lose his reputation and his political career. Judging from the personal ratings in the new Savanta poll, she's starting to suffer from the same brutal principle herself. Earlier polling suggested her popularity was holding up astonishingly well during the police investigation, but the fact that she has now been personally arrested, rather than just people close to her, may have made the decisive difference. (In fact, only some of Savanta's fieldwork took place after the news of her arrest broke, so future polling could be even worse for her.)
Net personal ratings of senior politicians (Savanta / The Scotsman, 9th-14th June 2023):
Kate Forbes (SNP): +2
Anas Sarwar (Labour): -1
Keir Starmer (Labour): -3
Nicola Sturgeon (SNP): -7
Humza Yousaf (SNP): -10
What can you even say about Yousaf's dismal showing here? He's foolishly hitched his wagon to a yesterday's leader whose popularity has plummeted, and yet he's still more unpopular than her anyway. It's rare to find yourself in a situation where someone who is dropping like a stone still has the theoretical capacity to drag you upwards (slightly). And given the extent to which the SNP leadership election boiled down to a two-horse race between Yousaf and Kate Forbes, party members can be in no doubt that they made the wrong choice in March. If they had picked Forbes, leadership would currently be an asset for the SNP and would give them an advantage over Labour - as it is, the total opposite is true. They may wish to reverse that mistake before too much damage is done at the general election next year.
Now for the good news: this poll adds further to the already considerable weight of evidence that Yousaf's unpopularity with the public, and the ongoing Sturgeon soap opera, is not damaging support for independence. If anything, the trend for Yes is slightly upwards.
Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes 49% (+1)
No 51% (-1)
The National have got into the habit of accompanying any front page headline about good polling news for Yes with a photo of Humza Yousaf, as if he was personally responsible for independence support increasing or holding up. Which is a touch comical in a way, because the evidence is now overwhelming that it's happening in spite of him rather than because of him. The trend on independence has become completely decoupled from the SNP's own polling fortunes, which as you'll see below look markedly different.
Scottish voting intentions for the next UK general election:
SNP 38% (-1)
Labour 34% (+1)
Conservatives 17% (-2)
Liberal Democrats 7% (+1)
Seats projection (current boundaries, with changes measured from 2019 election result): SNP 27 (-21), Labour 22 (+21), Conservatives 5 (-1), Liberal Democrats 5 (+1)
So the Humza emergency deepens - if this poll is right, the SNP are on course to relinquish their majority among Scottish seats in the Commons. They would be left with 27 seats and the unionist parties in combination would have 32. In practice it would probably be even worse than that, because we've yet to go through the election campaign, which like all Westminster campaigns will be an 'away fixture' for the SNP and a 'home fixture' for Labour and the Tories. The SNP slipping back into second place is very much on the cards unless appropriate action is taken (by which I mean replacing Yousaf as leader, or restoring the de facto referendum plan, or both). Individual SNP MPs who stand to lose their seats on these numbers include Anum Qaisar, Tommy Sheppard, Deidre Brock, Alison Thewliss, this week's Question Time star David Linden, Anne McLaughlin, Stewart McDonald and Angela Crawley.
Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:
SNP 40% (+1)
Labour 33% (+1)
Conservatives 16% (-3)
Liberal Democrats 8% (+1)
Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:
SNP 28% (-5)
Labour 28% (-2)
Conservatives 18% (-)
Greens 13% (+3)
Liberal Democrats 11% (+4)
Seats projection (with changes measured from 2021 election): SNP 50 (-14), Labour 34 (+12), Conservatives 21 (-10), Greens 12 (+4), Liberal Democrats 12 (+8)
The pro-independence majority in the Scottish Parliament would be lost on these numbers, although admittedly it would be a closer-run thing than suggested by some recent polls from other firms. The SNP and Greens in combination would have 62 seats, and the unionist parties combined would have 67.
It's the drop on the list vote that's really killing the SNP here. I know there's a perception that the SNP don't need list votes, but that theory goes totally out of the window when their constituency lead over the second-placed party drops to as low as seven points. In that scenario they need to offset their constituency losses with list seats, and that's obviously not going to happen on 28% of the list vote, especially when that puts them level-pegging with Labour.
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Kate is only just more popular than the Anal one - the problem is not Humza or Kate, the problem is the years of musty, sluggish, anti-indy, Murrelised nepotism which turned the SNP into a business venture for the political middle class. The middle class prise nothing more than success and this business-first mentality is despised by the working class. The SNP hasn't even the slightest pride or interest in being Scottish (other than some holw indyref2 propaganda at elections). Nobody (myself included) is actually motivated to vote SNP - we are die hard indies but I find myself thoroughly disenchented with the Superficial Notional Party. Alba will have to content itself with a complete SNP meltdown before seeing its fortunes improve.
ReplyDeleteI said the SNP going to get a drubbing at the next elections - nothing has change to alter my opinion (other than the cringing double standards of not suspending NS - she suspended people in the blink of an eye for naught and voters are not stupid) - it's now worse - we're being chased by the excrement that is Labour and handing them the keys to the kingdom.
Sturgeon's fault entirely and Salmond's too for deserting the ship after a near win.
"Kate is only just more popular than the Anal one"
DeleteThe gap between Forbes and Yousaf is twelve points. She's ahead of Labour's leaders, he's well behind them. I'm not sure how you get from there to "only just".
Yes, Forbes is 3 points ahead of Sarwar which is quite astonishing considering all that's going on. But she is sensible - she's not putting the knife into Yousaf but supporting him which is genuinely the right thing to do.
DeleteAnyways, from elsewhere: "Based on VI data (Scottish polls and Yougov UK subsamples), the apparent SNP decline stopped early May and they are either stable or starting to edge back up on all fronts. Have at least a 9 point lead over Labour for a UK GE.". No wonder you banned him.
Also, there's an analysis in the National which is truly garbage. Finances are crap but I'll try to bung a tenner your way some time. Please keep going, your analyses are sound as a pound (a Scots one) and that's from someone who's gigged as a statistician (NOT a psephologist - there's a big difference).
Forbes has been unswervingly loyal to Yousaf (in public) since the leadership election, while her allies have been scathing about him, usually anonymously but occasionally on the record. Whether that's a deliberate tactic or a reflection of different people's personalities, it's very effective.
DeleteForbes' position on LGBTQ+ is of concern.
DeleteIt's not of concern, unless you're saying you didn't believe her when she said as First Minister she would a) uphold everyone's rights under the law, and b) she wouldn't try to change the law to remove existing rights. And if you *are* saying you didn't believe her, that means you're disqualifying anyone with religious views from high office, no matter what assurances they give. That would be nuts.
DeleteThe thing about Forbes is that she tells the truth. LGBTQ+ people have to start to believe that, just as we all have to. Would we rather have a liar? We've had enough of them over the years, haven't we?
DeleteWould she press for new and extended LGBTQ+ rights?
DeleteYes. From recollection, she was enthusiastic during the leadership election about introducing a ban on conversion therapy.
Delete"Would she press for new and extended LGBTQ+ rights?" Well, that's a kind of 'How the hell should I know?' question. But as far as I know and I'm sure you know too, LGBTQ+ people all have the same rights as the rest of us. Check what GRR is about if you are unsure. I believe in equal rights and that includes the rights of Christians, don't you?
DeleteA big problem is the term LGBTQ has muddied the water between gay and trans rights which are two completely separate issues IMHO. Someone born homosexual is neither here nor there and deserves equality and support. On the other hand, someone who is born male and then decides they’re actually a woman despite every biological and patently obvious fact pointing to the opposite, that’s just and insult to most folks’ intelligence and the public aren’t ready to swallow it yet, no matter what the thought/cancel police say or do. Forbes may be driven by her belief in imaginary beings in the sky, but she’s striking a note with the nation’s viewpoint on certain things.
Delete" If they had picked Forbes"
ReplyDeleteYes, however she has dodged a bad time for the SNP and by the time she hopefully stands again as a leader candidate the worst will be over and she can shine.
And bring back Independence onto the manifesto.
As for Yousaf he seems to be becoming erratically and meaninglessly dictatorial. That's not strength, it's weakness.
As someone desperate for Scotland's independence it's weird to be in a situation where you are equally desperate the SNP and its leader gets a massive, if temporary as far as the party is concerned, thumping in the polls and possible Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election.
ReplyDeleteI also want a drubbing for the SNP at the Rutherglen by election. But I can't quite decide how brutal it needs to be. A close run thing, and party loyalists will play it off as a temporary difficulty to do with the current investigation. Too much of a washout, and risks creating its own momentum and bandwagon for Labour. Many on the English left are already convincing themselves, against Starmer's best efforts, that he is in fact engaging in a game of high political chicanery, and will set about instituting their personal wish-list of policies the moment he sweeps into Downing Street.
DeleteToo big a blowout in Rutherglen though, and we could soon see many more Scottish voters cheerfully pulling the wool over their own eyes, just like their English counterparts.
This is also why Salmond really has to stand in Rutherglen. The SNP getting gubbed in Rutherglen while a local Alba candidate collects 100 votes could be disastrous for independence. The SNP getting gubbed and Alba picking up a substantial share of the vote at least gives independence supporters ammunition to fight the "independence is dead" narrative that will be pummelled into Scots' minds from now until the next election, and allows Alba to establish itself as a real contestant.
Rutherglen really is a do or die moment for Alba. They won't get a better shot than this. And they don't have a better candidate than Eck.
Absolutely correct on all fronts.
DeleteWithout a high profile candidate for independence, all SNP-scunnered Rutherglen Yessers can do is stay home. And all that will achieve is flattering Labour. All that achieves, in turn, is 'proving' the media's ever wished for narrative that Scots are finally done with Indy, we've all grown out of it, and Scotland's back in the bag for Labour. (Quite what 'Labour' really is under Starmer, mind, they couldn't care less. The story is always just the horse race.)
The SNP's vote will slump in any case. We know that, the SNP know that, the media know that. It's already priced into the result. What could send a message is a good double digit %age for an indisputably pro-Indy candidate. Who can do that? Who has the passion and the star power?
We all know. And they know, too.
I don't believe that Labour can do 30% when Starmer is not cancelling brexit
ReplyDeleteHow many times did the SNP believe they could cry wolf?
ReplyDeleteThe National is reporting that Yousaf is leaning towards Sturgeon's de facto referendum strategy
ReplyDeleteFrom the National:
ReplyDelete"HUMZA Yousaf has appeared to endorse a de facto referendum strategy at the next General Election after previously saying he wasn’t as “wedded” to the idea as his predecessor." in an email to SNP members.
THAT is the only thing that will save the SNP from being slaughtered, drubbed, demolished, beaten and whimpering for mercy, at the next General Election - and the only thing that will get my vote for them.