Just for once, we have a Scottish local by-election result that won't lead the hapless "impartial Liberal Democrat election expert" Mike Smithson to inadvertently reveal his astounding ignorance of the election system his own party is supposed to support, because this is a Labour gain from the SNP in both the literal and genuine sense, ie. Labour have had to overhaul a deficit in the popular vote in the ward in order to fill a vacancy left by a departing SNP councillor. It's amazing how rarely STV by-elections work out quite as simply as that.
Bellshill by-election result (15th June 2023):
Labour 51.8% (+13.0)
SNP 27.1% (-13.7)
Conservatives 8.5% (-5.1)
British Unionist Party 4.3% (n/a)
Alba 3.9% (+1.7)
Greens 1.6% (n/a)
Liberal Democrats 1.2% (n/a)
Scottish Family Party 1.1% (n/a)
Freedom Alliance 0.3% (n/a)
UKIP 0.3% (n/a)
It's impossible to put a positive gloss on this for the SNP. This is a ward where they were marginally ahead in May 2022, and Labour have just beaten them by a 2-1 margin. Bellshill is sufficiently similar territory to Rutherglen to suggest that the SNP are likely to be heading for a heavy defeat in the (probably) forthcoming parliamentary by-election unless something very strange happens - on a similar swing they would lose by around sixteen or seventeen percentage points in Rutherglen. They desperately need a fresh start under a new, non-continuity leader who has considerably better net personal ratings than Humza Yousaf.
No-one can accuse the Alba Party of not having thrown the kitchen sink at this by-election - my inbox and Twitter account have been buzzing with it for weeks, if not months. Will they feel this result is a sufficient return for such a heavy investment? Probably just about. You can't dine out on 4% results forever, but when you're a party that has been at times branded as heading for extinction, modest progress that gets you ahead of two major parties is a phase you probably need to go through if you're going to make a genuine breakthrough later. This is the second time Alba have beaten the Greens in a by-election, and I believe it's the first time they've beaten the Liberal Democrats. Getting the equivalent of roughly one-seventh of the SNP vote is not too shabby either.
Nevertheless, a vote share of 4% after such a full-blooded campaigning effort would tend to confirm my observation of a couple of weeks ago - Alba can only hope to make a really big impact in Rutherglen if they put forward Alex Salmond as their candidate. All the door-knocking in the world won't offset the lack of a big name on the ballot paper.
This is a strikingly poor result for the Tories, although they probably suffered more than any other party from the intervention of the British Unionist Party and the three other fringe right-wing candidates.
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Only self interest will ever motivate the SNP's trougher elite to make changes so I suppose that this result, if it has any effect at all, might have a positive one.
ReplyDeleteWe've slid so far in terms of political insight during the years of the Sturgeon careerist coterie that it is hard to believe that enough of them will see the writing on the wall for anything effective to be done about it.
Meanwhile people have to start understanding how a united front can work. Co-operation at all levels based on limited agreement around independence rather than paddling the tiny canoes of an increasing number of different groups and denouncing everyone else with words and actions that make working together impossible will take us no where.
Oh? Don’t you know James? It’s all down to this dreadful London media coverage of an entirely normal, nothing to see here, storm in a teacup around Nicola.
ReplyDeleteClearly nothing to do with Humza’s breathtakingly weak leadership, caustic personality, and total disinterest in independence! Perish the thought.
Seriously though: this is precisely the canary in the coal mine for next WM general then Holyrood. The ship is holed below the waterline and action is urgently required.
Maybe independence supporters stayed at home because they know the current SNP leadership doesn't give a damn about independence. If that's the case then I applaud the abstainers.
ReplyDeleteThe SNP juggernaut is now jammed in a cul-de-sac with the engine stalled. They were driven into that cul-de-sac by Nicola and her husband who like the Nicolae Ceaușescu regime refused to allow dissent. By Nicolas own standards she would now be suspended from the party. (Michelle Thompson) as others were during her reign. The Greenwash and genderwoke has drowned her and Scotlands independence journey. It's going to be a long hard road back.
ReplyDeletec 13% Swing from one Brit Nat Wokist Party in the SNP to another Brit Nat Wokist Party in Labour. The Wokist Mind Virus is still running at Epidemic rates of infection and virulence.
ReplyDelete