Sunday, April 23, 2023

By just how much is Labour's lead in the Britain-wide polls shrinking?

I still live in hope that the SNP will see sense and replace the highly unpopular Humza Yousaf as leader prior to the UK general election, and if anything the chance that they'll do that is probably increasing a little.  However, there's obviously still a significant risk that they won't, and in that scenario they're going to need a huge slice of luck to avoid a landmark election defeat.  The obvious way some luck could turn up would be if the Tories mount a significant comeback at GB-wide level.  That could stall Labour's momentum in Scotland by removing their USP that they're about to turf the Tories out of government, and it could also mean that the unionist vote will be much more evenly split in Scotland, thus allowing the SNP to come through the middle and hold onto seats they would otherwise lose.

There's been a perception recently that the Tories have started to make some progress, but I wasn't sure to what extent that was true.  To find out, I've averaged the last six GB-wide polls, and compared the results to the average of the first polls of this calendar year from each of the same six firms (Omnisis, Deltapoll, Techne, YouGov, Redfield & Wilton and Savanta).

Start of 2023:

Labour 46.5%
Conservatives 26.8%

LABOUR LEAD: 19.7%

Now:

Labour 44.3%
Conservatives 29.7%

LABOUR LEAD: 14.6%

As you can see, there has indeed been a significant narrowing of the gap.  It hasn't been transformational, but around one-quarter of the Labour lead has been shaved off over the last three or four months.  There are still potentially eighteen months to go until polling day, so even if the rate of Tory recovery slows, it's looking conceivable that Sunak could at least claw his way back into hung parliament territory by then.

I was probably as guilty of anyone at the time of the Trussmageddon of jumping to the conclusion that we had just witnessed a Black Wednesday-type event that pretty much guaranteed a Labour landslide.  That assumption now looks much less sound, partly because Labour's position in the polls isn't quite as commanding as it was a year or two before the 1997 election, and partly because Starmer doesn't dominate Sunak on the preferred Prime Minister question in anything like the way Tony Blair dominated John Major.  Leadership questions in polls are often more predictive of election results than headline voting intention numbers, especially a long way out from polling day.

The pattern we're seeing potentially offers an important lesson to the SNP too.  It suggests that it's possible to recover from the mistake of selecting the wrong leader, provided the mistake is rectified long enough before an election, thus allowing voters enough time to put the episode behind them.

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20 comments:

  1. A YouGov poll from earlier this month gave Labour a 40% lead in London. With a population of 9 million, that’s a helluva lot of wasted votes.
    Meanwhile in Labour’s former “red wall” constituencies in the North of England, Sunak and his cabinet of horrors throw red meat such as Rwandan deportations at the base, while Starmer throws avocado on artisanal sour-dough toast.

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  2. The English largely vote right-wing against their better interests, still, I think Labour should win (certainly not guaranteed but likely, yet their own left-wing activists hate Starmer) - 'parties lose elections, oppositions don't win them' is the mantra. The tories will do everything they can to win - tax cuts etc. etc. The SNP seems determined to remain log jammed in incompetence - yet, people ain't dumb, they know the SNP has mitigated many of the tory right-wing nutter policies. However, the SNP mess is the mess in the news, is the news. It's actually pathetic, doesn't strike me as a party able to get out of the glare of it own caught-in-the-headlights mess. Humza has to clear it up but that can only be done with a reboot of the SNP to return to the democracy of the Salmond days... has he the authority to do that - I think so, but will he? Mz S left this mess (a multi-facted mess that needs cleaned up now).

    Yep, a party led by unpopular figures is largely doomed - in the SNP case though it's more a case of unmotivated SNP voters (at this time) that will kill the SNP - maybe Humza can change that but it take about 6 months before voters' minds set. He has time but the clock is ticking.

    Bet Mz S regrets taking sides against Mr Campbell and Mr Salmond now...

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  3. The obvious way some luck could turn up would be if the Tories mount a significant comeback at GB-wide level. That could stall Labour's momentum in Scotland by removing their USP that they're about to turf the Tories out of government, and it could also mean that the unionist vote will be much more evenly split in Scotland, thus allowing the SNP to come through the middle and hold onto seats they would otherwise lose.

    Still don't get this. "We're about to turf the Tories out of government" is a much weaker reason to vote Labour than "We might turf them out of government, but it's on a knife edge".

    The only election message Labour have used in Scotland for about twenty years is "We know we're shit, but we're less shit than the Tories and if you vote SNP you risk them getting in". If Labour are twenty points ahead, what argument do they have as to why anyone in Scotland should vote for them? Their own merits? Lol

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    1. "Still don't get this."

      That's because you're wrongly assuming that most voters act rationally, and that they would say to themselves "Labour are light-years ahead, therefore they don't need my vote and I can do something more constructive with it". In reality, most people susceptible to Labour arguments about kicking the Tories out would see a massive Labour lead as an opportunity to kick the Tories out, and would vote Labour. It's possible they might see a knife-edge vote as an opportunity as well, but they also might think "here we go again, the Tories always win in England in the end", or the SNP might be able to gain some traction with arguments about leverage in a hung parliament, possibly leading to a Section 30 order.

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  4. Mr Campbell? That would be the Tory supporter, 'Outraged from Bath' ?

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    1. His loyalties shift but that'll be the guy.

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  5. I would also keep an eye on the levels of support for the Reform Party. My hunch is that the Tories will see the RP's potential voters as Tories thst can be wooed back into the fold with anti-immigration, anti-ECHR, flag waving and death penalty referendum policies.

    I reckon about three quarters will break for the Tories.

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    1. That thought has occurred to me a few times, but bear in mind any such effect may be offset (at least partly) by people who currently say they will vote Green switching to Labour.

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    2. Oh, and I don't think even the Tories would try to reinstate the death penalty, but who knows.

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    3. There’s also the small matter of the prime minister himself to contend with. Like most folk, I rate him higher than his party. But the kind of voters who get warm and fuzzies for flying migrants to Rwanda and the potential return of flogging are the sort who might look on Sunak and Braverman with a raised eyebrow and wonder what Enoch Powell would have ever made of them! They will be old enough to at least remember who he was…

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    4. @ James

      I agree the death penalty is a bit out there, but I do remember Lee Anderson saying something about it recently. I note that he wasn't slapped down too hard for saying it, so maybe a bit of kite flying going on.

      My hunch is that the Tories will become more desperate to win if the gap doesn't close. My other hunch is that we are going all the way in terms of when we are having an election. Another winter election may favour Tory turnout over Labour, especially with voter ID now in.

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    5. I doubt they'd go any later than November 2024. December or January would not only be desperate, it would *look* desperate.

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  6. Interesting that some commentators are l
    comparing SNP members with Manchester United supporters in that the Man U folk hate the Glazers (the owners) with a passion but will always love and follow the club

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    1. Not sure about that analogy as parties do not have distinct owners in the same way as clubs.

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  7. With the SNP (under the current and forseeable leadership), and IndyRef2 or even a de-facto referndum a distant dream; and a "steady-as-you-go, we're a bit better than the Tories" SNP, the pro-Yes ex-Labour voters (who have lent their vote to SNP for the last 10 years) is surely now going to head back to "Scottish Labour"?
    In other words, what incentive does a Labour leaning pro-Indy person have in continuing to trust SNP to deliver Indy (or much else)?

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    1. Depends how Labour looks. The Torier the less appealing they will be to Scots, especially Yessers. It’s always a two-way thing: push and pull. Starmer can also mess it up.

      But to be honest, I rate even him a whole lot more than Humza. Good grief. We’ll be singing cringey anthems for the King at conference next!

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  8. Personally I don't like Starmer and don't think he deserves to win a landslide, so a narrowing of the lead is welcome

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  9. Why are the media and Sarwar allowed to consider Scottish Labour a compact Unionist party? When everyone knows that a significant part of its voters are pro independence, it's not the same as the conservative party

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  10. Labour will always be a british nationalist party. Under Yousaf the SNP will always be cowardly and self-serving. There is no point in Alba being just another gutless constitutionalist party. Support for independence stays steady; supposedly pro independence politicians stay feart.

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  11. As Yousaf has proven his promise to attend the AUOB march on May 6 why doesn't he ask his great friend Sturgeon the previous FM to attend in his place. Surely she can't be that busy these days and it would show people she supports independence (😂😂😂😂).

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