Since Humza Yousaf's narrow and controversial win in the SNP leadership election, opinion polls have shown the SNP's lead over Labour in Westminster voting intentions hovering between a fragile five and nine percentage points. In many ways that's the nightmare zone for all of us who care about independence. If the lead was much more commanding, we could relax a bit because there would be a genuine reason for thinking the SNP might get away with having installed a very unpopular leader. Or if Labour had taken an outright lead, something constructive would come out of it because the careerists in the SNP would go into panic mode and at least start to think about contingency planning for a change of leader. As it is, the danger is maximised that the SNP will sleepwalk into a crushing defeat without even attempting to address the Humza problem. The careerists (especially those who endorsed Humza and don't want to admit to themselves that they were wrong) will cling to the polls as they are right now as a very thin comfort blanket, whereas in fact a narrow SNP lead at this stage points to the likelihood of defeat.
People always underestimate the effect of the official campaign period, ie. the last few weeks before polling day when the media are giving blanket coverage to the campaign. Long-term readers know that I despair at the "demographic drift" school of thought about patiently waiting twenty years for births and deaths to push support for independence into a sustained majority, because a glacial increase in Yes support over decades, even if it happened, could easily be dwarfed by a massive swing of opinion in the last two weeks of a referendum campaign, leaving us scratching our heads about why we'd bothered waiting so long. The SNP are particularly vulnerable to late swings in Westminster election campaigns, because those campaigns are 'away fixtures' for the party. The London media will portray next year's election as Sunak v Starmer, with the SNP (and the Lib Dems for that matter) as little more than irritating complications. That's what will be beamed into Scottish homes, and to imagine it won't have an effect on Scottish voting patterns is naive. The obvious way in which the SNP could have counteracted the problem would have been to effectively put independence on the ballot paper, but Humza has ditched all plans to win independence for an indefinite period. So they'll be left trying to win votes with an unpopular leader and a bland pitch of "send a message to Westminster", which will impress and inspire absolutely no-one.
The classic example of the wheels coming off for the SNP during the official campaign period is the 2017 general election, and it's worth reminding ourselves of the speed and scale at which that happened. Here is what a Survation poll showed around six weeks before the 2017 election -
Survation poll, 18th-21st April 2017:
SNP 43%
Conservatives 28%
Labour 18%
Liberal Democrats 9%
Nothing much there to cause any alarm. It was obvious the SNP were going to lose a few seats to the Tories, so the right-wing press were talking up the significance of that for all it was worth, but Labour's vote was way down on the previous election and it seemed a racing certainty that the SNP would remain totally dominant across the central belt in Labour's former heartlands. However, look at the difference a few weeks of intensive campaigning had made by the eve of the election...
Survation poll, 7th June 2017:
SNP 39% (-4)
Labour 29% (+11)
Conservatives 27% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 6% (-3)
Suddenly, out of nowhere, the SNP were facing a pincer movement from both of the largest two unionist parties. The Labour vote was no longer down from the previous election, it was up, and more importantly the SNP lead over Labour since the previous election had more than halved, putting a huge number of constituencies back into play. That happened because the TV coverage ensured voters were exposed to Jeremy Corbyn much more than they were to the SNP, and some of them became excited about the possibility of a "real Labour government" for the first time in decades. (I can recall overhearing conversations to that effect on the streets of Glasgow.)
In retrospect it's a minor miracle that Labour only took seven Scottish seats in 2017, even though we had initially been confident they would take only one. For example, Labour gained just one seat in Glasgow, but from memory there were around another three or four seats in the city that were a virtual coin toss but all came down in the SNP's favour. That pattern was replicated in some other parts of the central belt. If the campaign had been just a couple of days longer, there could have been absolute carnage for the SNP.
A short sharp swing to Labour on a similar scale now would transform an SNP lead of around 7 points into a Labour lead of around 8 points. First-past-the-post would magnify the effect of that lead, returning the SNP to fringe minority status at Westminster. If that's what the SNP are happy to face, by all means they should retain Humza as leader and keep doing what they're doing.
* * *
As you might remember, I had intended to launch the Scot Goes Pop fundraiser for 2023 as soon as the SNP leadership election was safely out of the way. But the sub-optimal outcome of that election, and the even more sub-optimal sequence of events in the weeks since, means that it's just about the least promising moment ever to go all guns blazing with a fundraiser launch, especially as I'm sending SNP members a message on a near-daily basis that many of them don't want to hear about the radical reversal of course that will be necessary if independence is going to be won in the foreseeable future. Nevertheless, if anyone feels able and willing to help keep Scot Goes Pop going, donations are very much welcome. There are three options:
Direct payments can be made via Paypal. Those usually come through instantly and cut out the middle man. My Paypal email address is: jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk
Last year's fundraiser page is still open for donations and can be found
HERE. There's a small processing fee with this option.
If you prefer a bank transfer, please email me for details. My contact email address is different from my Paypal address and can be found in the sidebar (desktop version of the site only) or on my Twitter profile.
The SNP is perfectly happy with the constitutional status quo. The SNP has been taking pro independence supporters for granted for years now. SNP arrogance putting party before country.
ReplyDeleteYs I think that the SNP are very vulnerable to this too.
ReplyDeleteBig question to all SNP member and SNP MSP or MP readers here is what are you going to do about it?
Are you going to say nothing and lose your seat?
Are you going to put pressure on HY and his team to step up to the challenge or get out of the way?
Beware HY's strategy of giving everyone in the cabinet a voice. Without action to address the poll slide that looks to me like spreading the blame around.
You're not getting my vote until you sort out the problems.
Problems are only solved by bottoming them out and finding new ways forward. The SNP threw away it's big chance to do this after NS went.
ReplyDeleteThe 'gang', 'clique', 'cabal' - call it what you like again slammed the doors on other opinions and instead rearranged the deckchairs on the Titanic.
So now it will be even more difficult to get effectively election ready. I'll still vote for them as the lesser evil but I sure aint going to bust a gut on the streets to protect their salaries and bankrupt, non strategy for independence.
The ex SNP treasurer Colin Beattie says he did not know the SNP had bought a motorhome on STV news. Who to believe ?
ReplyDeleteThe lies and deceit from the SNP leadership just keeps on coming.
Flynn says Blackford didnae tell him about the SNP not having auditors. Blackford tries to pin the blame on his deputy at the time Oswald. Yousaf claims he knew nothing about anything. Sturgeon says nothing. Oswald who normally has plenty to say is silent.
But more importantly Yousaf begs again for a section 30 from Sunak and promises legal action against sec 35 and this tells you all you need to know about Yousaf regarding independence - like Sturgeon he is just a time waster.
Oh and despite all the lies and deceit numpties just believe the statements from the SNP saying SNP membership has surged. Where does this information originate from - that paragon of virtue and honesty Sue Ruddick, acting Chief Exec of the SNP who went fishing to get complainers against Salmond and was involved in the previous lies about the membership numbers when working with Murrell.
DeleteIt's OK though, because Scottish/Irish/Azerbaijani Skier is happy with the financial situation in the SNP and is donating undisclosed sums of money to the party.
DeleteBetter watch out James, he may come begging for that £20 soon!
The section 30 requests are an embarrassment. The party reeks of so many pudrid smells I can no longer identify them.
ReplyDeleteSturgeon says she will tell her version of events in due course. Hopefully it won't be 8 hours of lies this time. Cut it down to 4 hours of lies this time.
ReplyDeleteShe already started with her lies as she stated she had left the party in great shape for Yousaf as John REDACTOR MAN Swinney hovered in the background like some sort of security guard.
Sturgeon when asked if she knew about the motorhome says she won't answer as it is part of the polis investigation.
ReplyDeleteBeattie on the other hand when asked if he knew about the motorhome says without any hesitation he did not know.
Now he's saying that when he said he didn't know anything about the expensive van, what he meant was that he did know about the expensive van and he signed-off on the expenditure with full knowledge of the expenditure being for a campervan. One of these statements could be true..... But that kind of stuff from a company treasurer could be a reason why auditors don't want to go anywhere near him without a gieger-counter.
ReplyDeleteAnonymous - and that's why I posted above - " who to believe" and " the lies and deceit from the SNP leadership just keeps on coming."
DeleteImpossible to trust anything any of them say.
One thing I will say is that at the end of this scandal Sturgeon will blame anyone but herself. The leader who knew nothing and can't recall.
Things are getting so bad now that they are even rolling Nicola out to speak to the press (presumably because anyone else seems to of lost the ability to say something stupid). Notice that John Swinney was also conveniently placed in the back of the shot). Even if she had no toxicity around here, the last thing you want if the former leader up and front of the cameras when you are a new leader.
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile in Westminster the former and current group leaders are having a very public argument about who knew what and when so that neither can get the blame when they loose the party a tonne of money in a month or so.
As for the Colin Beattie debacle, how hard can it just to say i cant comment when asked about the motor home, but just like anyone else (including the FM) in the SNP at the moment he seemed to of lost the ability to engage his brain before speaking and went and said the wrong thing. Then they go and make a bad situation worse by releasing a statement a couple hours latter that reads like he had been taken into a darkened room and forced to write what he was told to if he wanted to be left out.
This could all probably be avoided if you had someone well known to the media and skilled in PR etc running Comms but of course he quit a few weeks ago, which looking back now was probably the first domino to fall and they have not stopped falling since.
Humza would have to be moved as leader and he hasn't done anything that meets that sort of treatment - he's there as leader for at least 6 months. THE SNP has fried its eggs and polls will reflect that soon.
ReplyDeleteIt's Official. Sturgeon's no ifs no buts referendum on October 2023 ain't happening. Only WGD numpties are shocked by the news as the Scottish government says:- " Given the legislative and other arrangements that would be necessary, the Scottish Government is not planning for a referendum in October of this year.
ReplyDeleteI hope this information is helpful. "
The key difference between Sturgeon and Yousaf is that Yousaf ain't even kidding on he will hold a referendum of any sort EVER. No ifs no buts there will NEVER be a referendum with Yousaf in charge. As the big dug punts the old Labour approach of you ain't got any other choice but to still keep voting SNP the SNP is in the final stages of morphing into Labour under a tartan blanket.
Ten wasted years and counting under Sturgeon's SNP as Sturgeon takes us back to the future - year 2000.
Reading through Robin McAlpine's latest and hearing a clip of Humza Yousaf on LBC, it seems as though the SNP is acting out the scene of the Do Lung Bridge in Apocalypse Now.
ReplyDeleteI really despair for these people and their utter lack of competence.
As usual in political scandals, who knew what when is key.
I can see that others are starting to ask the right questions but the SNP needs to get ahead of the game and show that they are getting control back.
Good questions for SNP members to be asking HQ, the NEC and their MP and MSP are:
What's the process in the SNP for agreeing large asset purchases? Where is that written down? In every organisation I've worked for their is a requisition process, and you can only raise a purchase order after the requisition has been approved, generally by at least two authorities with the required level of signing authority.
Who raised the purchase order for the motorhome? Again, their should a process in the SNP to raise a purchase order. There should also be correspondence from the vendor(s) with the SNP detailing their offer of the motorhome and how much it was going to cost.
Does the SNP have an asset register where it identifies clearly the motorhome as an asset?
Where is the paperwork for the motorhome? Who was registered as the keeper (not necessarily the same as the owner)?
How was the motorhome insured? Where is the paperwork for the insurance policy? Which people are authorised to drive the vehicle by that policy? Who gave them that authority?
All of these questions (how should it operate? How did it operate?) can be asked by Humza Yousaf and Mike Russell and answered easily by officials and HQ staff in a single day.
The answers might not reveal any criminality, but it might reveal that the SNP had no written systems for any of it (which is incompetence or worse, negligence), or that those systems were subverted (misconduct through to gross misconduct). I still think muddle rather than fiddle is more likely.
If the answers show evidence of criminality then that's the SNP's choice on whether to refer that to the police, even while the police investigate the £660k (separate issue imv).
If the systems were weak then that's negligence on the part of the management team and they should be disciplined or dismissed.
If the systems were subverted then that is dismissal for those directly involved and suspension from the party of all indirectly involved.
The first step to good governance of a country is to be able to govern yourself and your own party well. The culture and competence of an organisation is determinedby the behaviour of the leadership. SNP members (I'm not one) should be phoning HQ asking for answers to these questions ASAP, writing to their MP and MSP asking them to investigate, and having motions in branches dancing transparency from Humza Yousaf and Mike Russell on these issues.
Your party is in grave danger of collapsing.
The Tale of Two Sturgeon Videos.
ReplyDelete1. Members leaving.
You may remember Sturgeon issuing a video begging bampot trans activists not to leave the SNP as she had heard they were unhappy she had not disciplined/expelled SNP members the bampots considered to be transphobes. So Sturgeon was quick off her mark when she heard these nutters were leaving to join the Greens but she doesn't seem to have known that 30- 50 k other members had left. There was no video for them begging them to return - nobody told her, we are expected to believe - not even her husband said to her over breakfast that thousands are leaving. Was the matter not even raised during Murrell's annual performance appraisal? Assuming one took place.
2. The SNP finances.
The video recording of Sturgeon telling the SNP NEC that the SNP finances were just fine, indeed never been stronger, Stronger for Scotland even, and people should stop scare mongering took place in March 21. It is now known that Murrell gave the SNP a secret loan in June 21. A loan Sturgeon claimed to know nothing about yet money was found to purchase a motor home. She couldn't recall when her husband loaned the SNP over £100k!
Nicophant WGD liar Dr Jim says:- " More folk are joining and rejoining the SNP and donating like crazy such is the affection for Nicola Sturgeon."
ReplyDeleteSo how exactly do you know that to be the case Jimbo. The liar Jimbo believes other liars in the SNP who are proven liars on the subject of membership numbers and SNP finances. That marks Jimbo as an SNP propagandist.
The Britnat parties may be opaque when it comes to membership and finances but sadly WGD numpties think that means it is ok for the SNP to be the same. All it means is that the SNP resembles a Brtitnat party.
'Affection' for Nicola Sturgeon? That should be 'affliction' surely and you need only read the comments on WGD to see the damaging effect it can have on the simple-minded. As a 'Doctor', Jim should be taking steps to avoid spreading it to the population at large.
DeleteFelix