Sunday, March 12, 2023

Ash Regan 1, Kate Forbes 2 : That, for what it's worth, is my recommendation of how to vote in the SNP leadership election

Before I start, one or two people asked me yesterday if any media outlets had picked up on the new Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll showing that Kate Forbes has significantly extended her lead with the general public.  It took a little while, but quite a few newspaper websites started reporting the poll this afternoon, including The Independent, The National, The Journal (Ireland) and most importantly of all the Great Yarmouth Mercury.  I have very happy memories of spending time on Great Yarmouth beach in the long hot summer of...well, whichever long hot summer that was.  Click on the links to read the various reports of the poll, which of course also shows that Kate Forbes has the lead among SNP voters from the 2019 general election, SNP voters from the 2021 Holyrood election, and Yes voters from the 2014 independence referendum.

A rather presumptuous Humza Yousaf supporter tried to leave two comments on this blog earlier, in which he took it as read that I'd now be transferring my (second preference) support from Kate Forbes to Humza Yousaf because of the latter's rather vague and insubstantial comments yesterday about how he "might consider" using a snap Holyrood election to seek a mandate for independence.  Isn't it thrilling when politicians say at the last gasp of an election campaign that they "might consider" doing something?  You'd almost be inclined to think that if they had any intention of actually doing it, they'd have given a much more definite commitment and mentioned something about it far earlier.  Nevertheless, the commenter was still inviting me to believe that this new "maybe, possibly" position meant Yousaf was now more radical on independence strategy than Kate Forbes.

In spite of my extreme cynicism about the Yousaf campaign, I didn't dismiss this development totally out of hand, because I'm always only too eager to see indications of a "sinner repenteth".  So last night I looked at Yousaf's exact words with great care, and - to be blunt - I could not see any sign at all of a shift in his stance.  Even leaving aside the fact that a promise to "consider" something is worthless, because it's impossible to hold anyone to it (they can just say later on that they "considered" it and decided against), Yousaf is making clear he'd only consider a snap election AFTER the mythical "sustained supermajority" for Yes is achieved.  So if you think there's any chance of getting a snap election out of Yousaf this year, or next year, or even within the next five years, you can totally forget it.  If he becomes leader, you'll be able to ask him at any time why he didn't deliver the snap election he promised to "consider", and he'll inform you that he hasn't even needed to consider it yet, because there's no sign of that ever-elusive sustained supermajority.  And what's more, he'll tell you that's your own fault.  "No use looking at me, guys, if you want independence or a snap election, you'll just have to go out and knock on some more doors."  That will be his permanent, all-purpose excuse for doing absolutely nothing about independence for the entirety of his leadership - which is precisely what he intends to do.  There's a very good reason why Ben Macpherson (effectively now the SNP's first openly anti-independence parliamentarian) has backed Yousaf and not Forbes or Regan.

Let's be honest, what Yousaf has done is his own personal version of "The Vow" - which appropriately enough was run in the very newspaper that we now fondly know as "the Daily Humza" (although it'll revert to being "the Daily Anas" in around two weeks from now).  He's throwing out "ifs" and "maybes" and "we'll sees" in an act of last-minute desperation.  The real significance of it is that it probably indicates one of two things: either a) he thinks he's losing the election as things stand, or b) he thinks the election is too close to call, or that there isn't enough information to be confident he's currently ahead among members.  Just like the original Vow, if it does the trick, the ultra-vague promises to "think about possibly doing things" will vanish in a puff of smoke within seconds of the result being announced.

Back in the real world, the disappointing truth is that no good outcome to this leadership election is available anymore.  What we needed is an SNP leader who continues with Nicola Sturgeon's policy that an election must be used to seek a mandate for independence now that the referendum option has been closed off.  Sadly, both of the frontrunners are hellbent on ditching the Sturgeon plan, and although Ash Regan would actually further improve on what Sturgeon was offering, all of the polling evidence suggests that she is too far behind to have a realistic chance of becoming leader.

But when you can't have the best outcome, what you mustn't do is throw in the towel - you have to fight all the way to keep the flame alive and make sure the worst case scenario doesn't happen.  There are now two realistic priorities for independence supporters - a) to keep the cause of independence alive by ensuring Humza Yousaf does not become First Minister, and b) to lay down a marker on strategy by demonstrating to the new leader (hopefully Kate Forbes) that there is substantial ongoing support within the SNP for the Sturgeon-Regan plan of winning an independence mandate via an election.  Fortunately, there's no need to choose between those two priorities - you can have both, because this election will be conducted via a preferential voting system.  What will achieve the desired effect is voting as follows...

1st preference: Ash Regan

2nd preference: Kate Forbes  

I've heard it said by quite a few people that Ash Regan has the right message, but that she's the wrong messenger.  That should no longer be a concern because, at this stage, the purpose of voting for Regan is not to install her as First Minister, but instead to ensure that she receives a big enough share of first preference votes to make the new leader sit up and take notice.  It'll demonstrate that there is a substantial body of opinion in the SNP that can't be ignored or taken for granted.  Such an outcome will hopefully keep a de facto referendum (or whatever you prefer to call it) on the agenda.

But if you do vote Ash Regan on first preference, I cannot stress enough the importance of also using your second preference.  If you don't, you'll effectively be abstaining on the question of who will become First Minister, and nobody can afford to be abstaining when there is so much at stake.  I've rehearsed several times why Kate Forbes would be vastly preferable to Humza Yousaf, but just to briefly recap, there are two main reasons -

Firstly, although Forbes has essentially the same non-strategy on independence as Yousaf, the mood music from her is a million times better.  She talks about achieving independence within a short enough timescale that her newborn daughter will grow up in an indy Scotland.  She also puts the onus on herself to bring independence about, which means she can actually be held accountable if she fails to take sufficient action.  That's in stark contrast to Humza Yousaf, who has essentially been seeking a mandate from SNP members to do absolutely nothing for years on end, apart from meaningless fluff like appointing a "Minister for Independence".  (You could just as easily appoint a "Minister for Nuclear Fusion" or a "Minister for Exploration of the Surface of Pluto", but after ten years you still wouldn't have nuclear fusion stations or a manned mission to Pluto.)

Secondly, there would be no point in having the best independence strategy in the world if you have the wrong leader, because an unpopular leader will lose you referendums, and de facto referendums, and regular elections.  The polling evidence is overwhelming - the public like Kate Forbes and think she would be a good First Minister, but they feel the polar opposite about Humza Yousaf.  The Labour leader Anas Sarwar consistently has a better net approval rating than Yousaf, which points to a strong possibility that a Yousaf-led SNP could suffer defeat at the hands of Labour in 2026, thus bringing an end to nineteen years of SNP rule, and putting independence completely out of reach.  I would have no such concerns if Kate Forbes is the leader, because her net approval rating is generally superior to Sarwar's (and far superior to Yousaf's).

If you're going to stupidly and needlessly set yourself "sustained supermajority" targets, you must at least have a leader capable of reaching out and winning a substantial number of new votes from people who are currently unionists and who vote for unionist parties.  Humza Yousaf simply cannot do that, because polls show beyond all credible doubt that unionist voters in particular dislike him intensely.  In the Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll, Kate Forbes has a lead over Humza Yousaf among SNP voters and Yes voters from 2014, but she also has an absolutely enormous lead over Yousaf among No voters and people who vote for unionist parties.

No voters from 2014:

Kate Forbes: 69%
Humza Yousaf: 19%
Ash Regan: 11%

Labour voters from 2021:

Kate Forbes: 55%
Humza Yousaf: 28%
Ash Regan: 17%

Conservative voters from 2021:

Kate Forbes: 83%
Humza Yousaf: 9%
Ash Regan: 8%

Liberal Democrat voters from 2021:

Kate Forbes: 63%
Humza Yousaf: 20%
Ash Regan: 17%

(Above numbers are all taken from the new Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll, conducted 7th-10th March 2023.)

Paradoxically, by banging on and on about the need for a "sustained supermajority", Yousaf has come up with the most compelling argument of all for why he must never become SNP leader or First Minister.  If you look at the above numbers, it's an absolute no-brainer - Yousaf has no means of reaching out to unionist voters and building a sustained supermajority, but Kate Forbes does.  And she's also best-placed to hold on to the Yes voters we already had in 2014 - because she holds a lead over Yousaf among those people too.

Remember when the SNP leadership first started the frantic backtracking on independence?  It was the day after the 2017 general election, and I'll always remember anonymous SNP sources (I have a sneaking suspicion of who those people may have been) briefing newspapers about how furious they were at the 'hotheads' who had prioritised independence and cost the party seats like Moray and Angus, which had been in SNP hands since 1987.  The clear implication was that independence was less important than holding Moray and Angus, and if there was any choice to be made, it was independence that had to be sacrificed.  

Well, I'm afraid it cuts both ways - if independence had to be ruthlessly ditched to win back Moray and Angus, the same must be true of highly unpopular leadership candidates.  I defy anyone to look at the constituency of Moray - currently held by the Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross - and come to any other conclusion than that Kate Forbes would have a far, far better chance of winning it back for the SNP at next year's general election than Humza Yousaf would.

*  *  *

Over the last few days I've published results from TWO new Scot Goes Pop opinion polls - an opportunity to commission a second poll suddenly arose, so I made a snap decision to go ahead.  However, as you'll appreciate, polls are very expensive, so if anyone feels able to make a contribution, here are the options...

The simplest donation method is a direct Paypal payment. My Paypal email address is:

jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

If you wish, you can add a note saying "for the fundraiser", although even if you don't do that, it'll be fairly obvious what the payment is for.

If you don't have a Paypal account, last year's fundraiser is still very much open for donations HERE.

37 comments:

  1. Excellent annalysis of the current situation. FWIW if Youaf wins I won't be voting for his party again. I'll vote Alba. If there is no Alba candidate I'll abstain. For too long the devolutionist snp has depended on pro indy voters holding their noses and still voting for them even if they didn't agree with their devolutionist stance. Well, this is one pro indy voter the snp can't fool any more.

    Country before party.

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    1. The unionists will love you.

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    2. Third Craw the unionists love Sturgeon, Swinney, Yousaf, Wishart, McPherson, Smith, McDonald,Somerville,Robertson, Wishart,Murrell,Ruddick,McCann and on and on.

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  2. The Greens want Humza Yousaf and might just refuse to vote for Regan or Forbes as First Minister, in which case to cut a long story short, there would have to be a Holyrood Election. Oh dear. I'm not convinced SNP members would be too pleased at being told by the Green Party who they should have as Leader. Oh double dear. And I'm not too sure the electorate would be pleased at having an election forced on them by the Greens. Oh dear oh dear oh dear.

    Nick Chuggins

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    1. "in which case to cut a long story short, there would have to be a Holyrood Election"

      That's complete and utter nonsense. The SNP successfully stayed in power as a minority government between 2007 and 2011 with only 47 seats. They would have no difficulty whatever doing so with the 64 seats they currently have. (In fact technically that wouldn't even be a minority government, because excluding the non-voting Presiding Officer, the SNP have exactly half the seats in the parliament.)

      The Green have no realistic means of bringing the government down, even if they wanted to (which itself is highly unlikely).

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    2. I'm being optimistic James.

      Nick Chuggins

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  3. If of interest I'm currently Regan, Humza, Forbes in that order. Regan for her indy plan, Humza for his competency at communication under pressure and Forbes last because I think she'll be monistered due to her beliefs which may set the cause back amongst the young. I think indy is going to need a strong youthful voice to carry the day. I also think she seems too young, bright but not a leader (yet) for me. Seems too much like a well meaning student. Subjective I know.

    Humza did not discount all options for indy today which has somewhat solidified my choice.

    Just my tuppence as I saw you were wondering if there was anyone like me.

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    1. I disagree with all your reasons for voting for Humza as FM (which is what you're doing by ranking him ahead of Forbes), but the worst reason of all is -

      "Humza did not discount all options for indy today"

      I mean, come on. Anyone who falls for a last-ditch change of messaging to "I don't actually totally rule out doing what you want me to do, but no promises" must be buttoned up the back (with the very greatest of respect).

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    2. Anonymous - you say " I think Indy is going to need a strong youthful voice to carry the day." So you go for Regan - the oldest candidate by 11 and 16 years.
      I watched all the hustings last week and Yousaf blasted referendums de facto or otherwise or even the ballot box out the water. None of them were going to happen on his watch. He now says otherwise - aye right - were pink pigs seen flying over Broughty Ferry this weekend.

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    3. What a successful independence campaign actually needs is *older voters*. That's been the missing piece of the jigsaw all along. Older voters do not, I'm afraid, rate Yousaf at all.

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    4. I mean supporter base in terms of youth. Regan comes across fairly youthful for her age but Forbes seems like a child. I just can't see fifty year olds thinking that's our leader. She seems like a well meaning PHD student.

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    5. Then you'll have to explain why older voters support Forbes so overwhelmingly in opinion polls.

      From the bang up to date SGP / Panelbase poll, here are the figures for over-55s -

      Kate Forbes: 63%
      Humza Yousaf: 19%
      Ash Regan: 17%

      They don't seem to share your personal opinion of her. Quite the reverse, in fact.

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    6. Anonymous - whether or not Forbes or Regan can increase the polls for yes it is all meaningless if there is never an actual vote for independence. We had 6 years of promises for a referendum from Sturgeon during which she and others repeatedly said the Britnats could not stop us having a vote. Who ended up preventing a vote - Sturgeon not the Britnats. SNP members have been fooled once
      please think very carefully about your vote.

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    7. >whether or not Forbes or Regan can increase the polls for yes it is all meaningless if there is never an actual vote for independence.

      In fact, whether there's an actual vote for independence is meaningless if support for independence remains marginal on a good day.

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    8. If you're the same 'commentor' (slightly different spelling) who used to post here regularly, I clearly recall you didn't think the 2014 referendum should have been held. If that advice had been followed, in all likelihood there would still only be five or six SNP MPs at Westminster, and there's a fair chance the SNP would no longer be in power at Holyrood.

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  4. James, you will not be surprised to learn that Skier has looked at your poll and come to the opposite conclusion you reached re Forbes being a lot more popular with the Scottish voters than Yousaf. He sees that as a disadvantage for Forbes. He thinks having Yousaf trying to convince people who cannae stand him as FM will help increase the yes vote.
    Nobody on WGD has called him out on this nonsense interpretation. Yep they are numpties. Can Skier be working for Murrell? What other explanation can there be for this nonsense opinion.

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  5. Obviously Regan 1 Forbes 2 for real yes (Regan is a signal with a subsequent Forbes transfer).. the interesting or rather depressing hing for precise reasons above is on Betfair yousaf still 1.7 favourite..

    Combination of reasons why:

    1. SNP members sheep (take steer as rest of us have left)
    2. Manipulation of vote expected and priced in
    3. Regan and Forbes don't transfer to each other (doubt that)

    I've backed humza and want to lose

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    1. 1.7 is far from certainty, in fact it's closer to even-stevens than it is to certainty. I think punters are probably fixating on two things: a) the sole poll of SNP members from Savanta (although even that offered a clear path to victory for Forbes), and b) the endless stream of establishment endorsements for Yousaf.

      Betting markets are less efficient on politics than on sport. Just occasionally you can look at them and see that they're very obviously wrong.

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    2. Sure agreed..apart from the lack of openness about the process of who wins given there's clearly a favourite that's endorsed by those counting the votes or directly employing them.

      It's no hard to see that James and I ken ye ken this.

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  6. James, I know the polling has been very sparse, but do you have a Poll of Polls for the leadership race? (SNP members only)

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    1. There's only been one poll of SNP members so far (the Savanta poll).

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  7. why no mention this time of 'vote till you boak' (ie, actively choosing Humza as candidate 3)? I think I can see why, but maybe it needs spelling out ..

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    1. Vote till you boak on this occasion means ranking two candidates. If you look back on past blogposts I've written on the subject, I've always said it makes no difference whether or not you bother giving a bottom ranking to your least favourite candidate (so if there are seven candidates, ranking six of them means you've ranked the field).

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  8. Ok so it’s time to vote. Is there any information or public comment of note regarding the oversight and accountability of the vote counting process? There’s been unease expressed in social media places but nothing more than a conspiracy theory level of unease, I think.
    Donald

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    1. The voting platform is the mi-voice one that the snp have used for a while. I’m assuming that they will use the ‘self-managed’ option as it’s cheaper. Anyone know different?

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    2. Donald, do you think it right that the SNP are working with the British state spying institution on the vote. That is fact confirmed by the SNP.

      Why is the process involved in the vote that will determine the next FM of Scotland shrouded in such secrecy? Again that is no conspiracy theory that is fact.

      Why is the Daily Mail the only organisation that has put a number on the SNP membership - what's the big secret?

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    3. All good questions. I do wonder how much freedom the self managed mi-voice option gives to clients.

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    4. Anonymous at 7.32pm. I suspect they will give the client as much freedom as the client requests because that is the service they advertise.

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  9. Meanwhile, as most bloggers are covering the leadership election the blogger (WGD) who is the biggest supporter of Sturgeon and the SNP continues to ignore it and tells his readers in his latest article the BBC is British, bad and biased. Well thats what I think it says because I didn't read it but I have read a lot of the other articles he has written on the subject. Money for old rope from Kavanagh but numpties lap it up.

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  10. The National has had probably over 50 front pages telling us Indyref2 is about to happen over the Sturgeon years.

    Here is my top ten - not in any particular order.

    1. Scotland will have its say. FM: indyref will be held with or without S30.

    2. Save the date! October 19 2023.

    3. FM confident of YES win in 2023.

    4. SNP refute claim 2023 indyref is unlikely.

    5. We have a duty to put Indyref2 to Scottish electorate.

    6. FM: Indyref2 refusal is"untenable" if SNP win a majority.

    7. Sturgeon says Scotland will hold Indyref2.

    8. FM: Indyref2 inevitable.

    9. Holyrood votes for Indyref2.

    10.You can't stop another referendum if Scots want one.

    If you want another 8 years of Sturgeons deceit then vote Yousaf but don't claim you support Scottish independence. If you actually want Scottish independence not phony newspaper headlines then vote Regan.

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    1. Yousaf on the telly declaring:- " I will deliver independence." Will this be the headline in tomorrow's The National.

      Funny how he never said that in the hustings during most of last week. It was all about regional discussion groups and people getting out and increasing the yes vote. It was for others to deliver independence not him. What a chancer just like his boss Sturgeon.

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  11. Give Yousaf his due, he's smoked out a goodly number of unionists for deselection and his coded message on the snap referendum (ie vote for Ash or Kate if you want to give green party the excuse they need to collapse Holyrood) was excellent piece of double speech for anyone still keen enough to put positive spin on it

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  12. With apologies to the person who just attempted to comment, I'm not going to publish it because it appears to be false information, and I'm going to be careful to avoid any possible astroturfing from the Yousaf campaign. (Perish the thought that such a thing would go on.)

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  13. Do we have any indication where the three candidates are in terms of polling? Can we assume Forbes has closed the gap with Yousaf?

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  14. Is it correct then that there has been no official announcement from the SNP of the number of members and there will be no numbers/details provided regarding the actual vote. So will we know if the winning candidate has won on the first votes only or if second votes came in to play. Will we get any info other than the winner. Is this transparency?



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  15. "That is why they won't let us vote". says the WGD liar Skier blaming Westminster for there being no vote on independence. Once again another lie by Skier. The people preventing a vote on independence are Sturgeon, the Scottish government and the SNP. There could have been a vote this year by calling a Holyrood election and making it a vote on Scottish independence. Sturgeon by resigning cancelled the special conference due this month and scuppered the chance of a vote. So stop the lying Skier. Oh that's right you are a Sturgeon propagandist now moving on to be a Yousaf propagandist so that's in your job spec.

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  16. I agree with you entirely James. wd

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