Monday, March 13, 2023

More catastrophic polling numbers for Humza Yousaf as YouGov finds, by a 2-1 margin, voters think Yousaf is "weak", "incompetent" and "untrustworthy" - while the same poll finds Kate Forbes is considered "strong", "competent" and "trustworthy"

My heart skipped a beat earlier, because someone left a comment saying that independence support had "fallen to 39% in a new YouGov poll".  Totally false alarm, as it turns out - that was the figure before Don't Knows were excluded.  The headline numbers are actually Yes 46%, No 54%, which bearing in mind that YouGov are generally on the No-friendly end of the spectrum, suggests that independence support is holding up pretty well amidst all the sparks flying around during the SNP leadership contest.  Even more remarkably, the SNP lead on both Westminster and Holyrood voting intentions has actually increased since the last YouGov poll.

But I'm afraid there's no false alarm in this poll for Humza Yousaf.  These are probably the most devastating numbers for him to date - it's hard to see how any politician can expect to lead his party to an election victory (let alone lead his country to independence) if voters have already made up their minds that he is "weak", "incompetent" and "untrustworthy".

YouGov / Sky News poll (9th-13th March 2023):

Thinking about Humza Yousaf, do you think he is a strong or weak leader?

Strong: 19%
Weak: 39%

Is competent or incompetent?

Competent: 22%
Incompetent: 40%

Is trustworthy or untrustworthy?

Trustworthy: 18%
Untrustworthy: 42%

*  *  *

Thinking about Kate Forbes, do you think she is a strong or weak leader?

Strong: 28%
Weak: 22%

Is competent or incompetent?

Competent: 37%
Incompetent: 20%

Is trustworthy or untrustworthy?

Trustworthy: 30%
Untrustworthy: 27%

*  *  *

Thinking about Ash Regan, do you think she is a strong or weak leader?

Strong: 13%
Weak: 26%

Is competent or incompetent?

Competent: 17%
Incompetent: 24%

Is trustworthy or untrustworthy?

Trustworthy: 13%
Untrustworthy: 26%

Respondents were also asked whether each candidate would be a better or worse First Minister than Nicola Sturgeon.  All three candidates came out with a negative rating on this question, which is perhaps understandable given how Nicola Sturgeon has dominated Scottish politics over the last decade.  But, once again, Humza Yousaf came out by far the worst.  His rating is a ghastly -40, compared to a considerably more respectable -16 for Kate Forbes, and -30 for Ash Regan.

*  *  *

You can read Find Out Now's write-up of last Friday's Scot Goes Pop / Find Out Now poll on independence, showing a 4-point Yes lead, HERE.

*  *  *

Over the last few days I've published results from TWO new Scot Goes Pop opinion polls - an opportunity to commission a second poll suddenly arose, so I made a snap decision to go ahead.  However, as you'll appreciate, polls are very expensive, so if anyone feels able to make a contribution, here are the options...

The simplest donation method is a direct Paypal payment. My Paypal email address is:

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  1. At the Aberdeen hustings Yousaf punted the idea that if you don't keep the Greens with you then you won't be elected FM. Obviously what he was meaning was that the Greens would only work with him. Forbes sitting next to him didn't look impressed. Prior to 2021 election Sturgeon was FM and didn't have a majority in the Parliament and had no formal Bute House agreement. Salmond also had a minority in his first parliament. So he is telling SNP members the Greens get to determine the SNP leader and FM.
    What a slimeball Yousaf is. Untrustworthy 42% for Yousaf not surprising.

  2. I just wish we had more polling on SNP member preferences

  3. Sky News debate starting at 7pm.


  4. British Electoral Politics
    Scottish independence Voting Intention:

    NO: 48% (+3)
    YES: 40% (-4)
    Don't know: 12% (+1)

    Don't know excluded:

    NO: 55% (+4)
    YES: 45% (-4)

    , On 8-10 March,
    Changes w/ 1-7 February.

    1. Is that the same one that was reported yesterday? I think it must be, the numbers look the same.

    2. I really don’t get how anyone moves from ‘yes’ to ‘no’. Is it the same people who move from labour to conservative at random elections and vice versa? No idea how to appeal to switherers of that level.

  5. I confess I personally find this beauty contest of the inanities is a drag but at least the SNP is in the news.

  6. That 39% was in the metro by Stephen Deal. He's been on this long enough that it's clearly a deliberate attempt to mislead.