The race to succeed Nicola Sturgeon is about to start: is Kate Forbes the only potential candidate with enough stardust to win independence?

I was mildly bewildered to wake up this morning and discover there's a splash about me on page 4 of The National.  I literally said to the Random Totty "must be a slow news day". Well, it's not a slow news day now.

My guess is that Nicola Sturgeon's decision to resign is genuinely personal - her heart is probably no longer in it, or perhaps that elusive UN job we've speculated about for years has finally come up.  In spite of the relentless propaganda to the contrary, her position was certainly not politically untenable - as very recent polling evidence shows, she remains more popular than the leaders of all the opposition parties.  The timing is deeply odd, and some would argue even a tad irresponsible from the point of view of the independence cause, because it means the forthcoming conference to decide strategy on a de facto referendum will now be overshadowed by the leadership succession.  It would perhaps have been better if she had waited until the conference was over, although on the plus side this frees up delegates to make a genuine rather than "managed" choice.  (The conspiracy theory is that she was somehow forced out by the do nothing Stewart McDonald faction which will now try to seize control of the conference and prevent any sort of de facto referendum from taking place.)

Ms Sturgeon's superior personal ratings in the polls explain why, if she had announced this decision a couple of years ago, I would have been horrified, and convinced it was a brutal setback for independence.  She's now become such a polarising figure that it's possible, on balance, that a change at the top might be a net positive, because there's an opportunity for a more unifying leader to take over.  But the operative words in that sentence are possible and opportunity.  An equally possible outcome is that Angus Robertson will be the successor, and will stay in office for a decade, in which case those who have been pursuing a crazed 'decapitation strategy' against Ms Sturgeon over recent weeks and months will end up wondering what on earth they've been doing.  In terms of policy and strategy, Mr Robertson would probably stick very close to the path charted by Ms Sturgeon.  'Careful what you wish for' as a commenter on the previous thread said.

Since the pro-independence government first took office in 2007, we've been blessed to have had two First Ministers who are recognised as being among the most talented politicians of their respective generations across the whole UK, and perhaps even the most talented of the lot.  But there was nothing inevitable about that - Alex Salmond's immediate predecessor in his second spell as leader was the managerial and bland John Swinney, who polls showed had completely failed to connect with the electorate.  If the SNP end up with someone like that again, it could essentially make independence unwinnable for years to come, even leaving aside the question of whether that person continues with Ms Sturgeon's overly-cautious strategy.  I actually like Angus Robertson on a personal level, but I do fear he's more of a Swinney than a Salmond or a Sturgeon.

We absolutely must have a third successive leader with a bit of stardust if we're going to win independence, and my gut instinct is that person might be Kate Forbes.  Perhaps Humza Yousaf is a touch more charismatic in a conventional sense, but he's got a real arrogant streak about him which would alienate too many voters.  Another possibility would be to draft Philippa Whitford in from Westminster (admittedly a complex process which might require an interim First Minister) - I could easily see her having enormous public appeal as leader on a kind of "Mary Robinson" basis, and I'm not just saying that because she has an Irish accent.  But my guess is she won't put herself forward.

The snag with Kate Forbes is, though, that although I'm reasonably convinced she has sufficient personal appeal, she's a completely unknown quantity - at least to me - on her attitude to independence strategy.  It may be that she'd be the ideal person to keep the SNP winning elections, but wouldn't have the determination and gambler's instinct that may be required to get us over the line for independence itself.  So I'll reserve judgement until I hear what she has to say in the coming weeks - assuming she even stands at all, of course.

Lastly, I'll just note that my first tiny inkling that today's shock news was on its way came in a knowing tweet from Kevin Hague a few hours ago.  If he was in the loop, it increases my suspicion that the mainstream media and what passes for a 'unionist blogosphere' are essentially one and the same thing.

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