By far the most disturbing part of this momentous day has been the mutterings from certain usual suspects in the SNP that the special party conference next month, in which the details of a de facto referendum are to be decided, should be postponed due to the leadership vacancy. If that idea is even entertained, let alone if it comes to pass, there will quite understandably be grave suspicions that Nicola Sturgeon's resignation was merely part of the choreography for backing down on a solemn promise made to Yessers that a de facto referendum would definitely take place. It could well permanently destroy trust between the SNP and the broader independence movement, because forever afterwards it would be known that there is no promise watertight enough that the SNP leadership can't find a creative method of wriggling out of it. (And I must admit that this one would be creative enough that I don't think I could ever have anticipated it.)
Toni Giugliano is arguing that the NEC resolution that will be put to conference is no longer valid. Simple question: why? His claim might make sense if it was the NEC that had just collectively resigned, but it's not, it's just the leader. And clearly the resolution was not Nicola Sturgeon's sole work, because it contains two options, and presumably she only agrees with one. Moreover, the resolution is amendable, so even if Giugliano dislikes both options (and plainly he does) there's still a democratic path open to him. Why doesn't he just take it, rather than trying to rig the process? What he really wants is conference to be used as a rubber-stamp by the new leader to cancel the de facto referendum altogether. Nicola Sturgeon argued in her speech that one of the advantages of her resignation is that the conference would no longer feel bound by loyalty to go along with the option she personally prefers. It logically follows that it would be just as bad for conference to feel bound by loyalty to go along with whatever option the new leader hits them with.
Maybe some will claim that the planned conference process is flawed because the vote will be restricted to delegates and most members will be excluded. They might argue that using the leadership election as a proxy vote on the de facto referendum is democratically superior because all members will get a say. But that theory only works if every leadership candidate is open and honest about their intentions. Generally what actually happens is that a candidate will say whatever is necessary to get elected, and only then reveal what was in their mind all along. That's how Tony Blair smuggled in the concept of New Labour in 1994. That's how Starmer mugged the soft left in 2020.
No, instead of electing the leader and then being bound by the whim of that individual, do it the other way around. Hold the conference first and make sure it's the incoming leader that is bound by democratic decisions that precede their own election. I have no doubt whatsoever that if left to their own devices, the SNP conference delegates would approve a de facto referendum. I have no idea whether they would select the 2023, 2024 or 2026 option, but it would be one of those three and the Scottish people would at long last get a choice on their own future. No last-minute chicanery should be allowed to thwart that.
PS. I think I was over-optimistic earlier in saying that Angus Robertson as leader would follow roughly the same strategic path charted by Nicola Sturgeon. I think he'd actually be even more cautious and passive. The mood music from him in recent months (for example in the notorious France 24 interview) suggests that he thinks the commitment to a de facto referendum is an optional extra that should be discarded. He may well be the standard bearer for the 'do nothing' faction in the coming contest - which makes the fact that he is the current bookies' favourite to win very troubling indeed.
* * *
As a delegate and an independence supporter of several decades I can assure you that punting a choice for the electorate into the long grass is not going to happen, or at least I very much doubt it
ReplyDeleteWell, that’s a depressing read.
ReplyDeleteAgree about Robertson. If it's true that the more radical of members have left the party it is more likely he will receive support. It would be a tragedy for independence if he became the new leader. We need someone to energise the party as well as the country.
ReplyDeleteAye James so much for the no ifs no buts promise. Lions, donkeys and numpties led by Britnats posing as independence supporters.
ReplyDeleteRobertson just fancies a long stint in Bute House where he can droll over all the make believe stuff that the alphabetties dreamed up. I am sure Clegg has a plentiful supply of the appropriate Daily Record newspapers to assist him.
Numpties go on about people not living in Scotland. Robertson born in England and spent about a decade living in Austria.
I'm not sure being a newborn baby in England will have influenced his politics all that much.
DeleteI definitely think the First Minister should be someone who's never left Elgin.
DeleteI agree with you James. The conference must be held with no leader in place - and will be better for being that way. And who that leader should beI have no idea. Needs to be someone who is trusted to bring people together across the Indy movement in a gentle way, but also trusted to deliver a viable process towards Indy.
ReplyDeleteAnd most difficult of all - despite the procrastination thus far - that leader needs to to be given space as FM to work through the issues and get people working together. There are still too many people around today still banging on about the Gender Recognition thing. The new FM needs to take that off the table PDQ. So I reckon the new leader needs to be given a year before setting out a new program. It's a big ask, but I think Indy needs a new broom and some clear blue water away from the end of Sturgeon's reign.
Will Liz Lloyd find herself working as Clegg's special assistant at the Courier by this time next year?
ReplyDeleteWill the SNP have a new husband and wife team in place by this time next year?
Just made the mistake of listening to Ian Payne's phone-in on LBC. A lot of mischaracterisation of Jim Sillars's latest comments as being that "Sturgeon was TOO OBSESSED with independence." Of course, his comments didn't amount to that at all. But far me it from me to get in the way of a media mischaracterisation. Also already started with the "Forbes is a crazy Christian cultist" angle.
ReplyDeleteBut the callers were quite eye-opening. The usual whine from Dan Saff about how much we hate the English notwithstanding, the Scottish callers really reinforced to me how little Scottish people understand about the devolution settlement. The general consensus seemed to be that we couldn't be an independent country, because look at the state of the country right now. Try to point out that Westminster may bear some responsibility for that? You're just an English-hating swine.
I understand of course that phone ins are going to be a self-selecting demographic. But as a country, we have an absolutely appalling understanding of which powers lie with which parliament, and how that plays out in our day to day lives. Really starting to doubt we can win a referendum unless we actually tackle that lack of knowledge about the current constitutional settlement head on.
The media won't do it, because it benefits the unionist cause to mindlessly point out failures in policy, even on reserved matters. And frankly, it's been one of the biggest failures of the Sturgeon AND Salmond era that we've never tried to effectively counter it. There's almost been an assumption for the past 16 years that the Scottish public are more clued up on the devolution settlement and its limitations than is actually the case.
So whoever the next leader is, really needs to make it their mission to take the approach that Margo MacDonald (and Sillars himself!) once espoused. No more of the technocratic technobabble, or the assumption that Scottish people have any particularly special grasp of the current settlement. Find ways, in simple terms, to explain where power lies now and what the consequences of that are. How that affects people's everyday lives. Drill that into people's heads as much as you can.
We managed, briefly in 2014, to actually get a lively and nuanced discussion like this going. But it has totally evaporated in the intervening years. It should go without saying that we have to explain the problems with the current setup effectively if we're to win people over. But we've never managed or bothered to do that in a sustained manner.
And it's left a lot of very confused Scots who now seem to think that UK-wide issues are uniquely Scottish - a notion the media will never willingly disavow them of.
Apologies for the lengthy rant James. The end of the Sturgeon era is really bringing home to me tonight how much time has been wasted in not building this understanding in Scottish society. But quite honestly, it has been a failure of the SNP since they first took power, to over-estimate people's understanding of the devolution settlement, and what that means for independence.
I hope the next leader will take that mission on. It will be pivotal going forward.
WGD numpty Grizebard says the SNP accounts being checked by the polis is a meritless confected red herring. Auditors check your accounts the polis investigate potential fraud. Grizebard conveniently ignores the fact that the elected treasurer along with other elected members of the finance committee all resigned when Murrell refused to let them do their job and wouldn't let them see the accounts.
ReplyDeleteSturgeon confirmed today the polis are still investigating the SNP accounts. So just why has it taken so long?
Anyone who thinks that raising over £600k back in 2017 for Indyref2 and it never happens all these years later is not something that could be interpretated as a scam is the sort of person that would be daft enough to give out their email password to an unsolicitated email. I give you McDonald and WGD numpties.
DeleteIt is worth noting that Robertson is a long term good friend of Peter Murrell. That fact and not where he was born should be enough to make him the last person an independence supporter should want as leader but yet bookies have him as favourite. Both the SNP representative and the Labour representative on Scotland Tonight wanted Robertson as the new leader. It was well trailed that this was the reason Robertson was forced in to place in Edinburgh as an MSP over Cherry. Rules being changed to facilitate this. Sturgeon may have said yesterday that she had no preferred candidate but she also said multiple times she would have an independence referendum.
Has Peter Murell asked Sturgeon his three important questions yet?
ReplyDelete1. Will we still be going to the coronation in May.
2. Will we still get tickets for Wimbledon?
3. Will Angus be doing my annual performance appraisal in future?
wait and see? I' think I'm getting as exhausted from the SNP as the refusal from the government, it did work out for her, she did delay and then move on, leaving it up to others, maybe it was planned and the plebiscite election is just another lure to keep people like myself on board. i wonder if the kids that have grown up over the last 15 years will have a different take of civic nationalism and it's ineffectiveness. Who can blame them if they take a more direct rout of action in the future, for better or worse.
ReplyDeleteExcellent post James,
ReplyDeleteDoes anybody know of anybody senior in the SNP that is openly pushing the de facto referendum strategy in the public domain. I can't think of anybody off hand, Sturgeon seemed to be the only one in favour of it publicly
(and some would argue that's questionable, she never looked entirely comfortable with it. If you look at Strugeon's demeanor and body language when she announced the strategy she looked pressurised, conflicted and troubled, she didn't have an air of conviction in her eyes, she wasn't her ebullient self as she was in the referendum campaign)
on the other hand there are a whole wolfpack in the higher echelons of the SNP who are questioning and undermining it and ready to tear it apart
Those who wanted Sturgeon gone had better be careful what they wished for, with the devolutionist crew jockeying for position in the background, right now a Holyrood 2026 de facto would be a result.
Cue Smith, Flynn, Mcdonald, Robertson, Wishart et al and the like all angling to scuttle the de facto ship
The timing of the resignation can only suggest we're about to witness the great betrayal, the cronies are about to sell out the independence movement.
My only, face to face, memory of Robertson in the SNP was at a husting in Dumbarton when he stood as deputy leader. It so happened that I was seated a few feet away and facing him. The first moves of ending member democracy were happening and the room was full of members opposed to losing their rights. All three of the other prospectives at least made 'noises' in support of defending internal democracy. Robertson smoked heavily, and loudly 'harumphed' at pro democracy statements, then side stepped the question himself. For me, that was the end of him as a candidate for anything.
ReplyDeleteToni G. was the candidate, in the same area, against Jackie Baillie last time around. He was energetic, personable and upped the SNP vote by about 3,000. Jackie only won because the tories of Helensburgh voted 'Labour' en masse.
Toni got the nomination as candidate when HQ stole the selection process from the constituency party because they were afraid that Caroline McAlister (pro womens rights) would be selected if they did not.
Toni was the 'outcome' of the hijacked process which, at the time, he strongly claimed to be against.
He came across as a nice guy, intelligent, articulate, energetic and likeable but - content to try to make his way on the back of political 'dark arts'.
I'm no longer a member of the SNP but the conference should go ahead and Toni's motives for opposing it should be scrutinised closely.
"Robertson smoked heavily"
DeleteReally? In a confined indoor space? How long ago was that?
well I hope they follow Angus MacNeil and opted for a plebiscite at the Scottish parliament, that seems like the best option.
ReplyDeleteI'd take just about anyone else other than Sturgeon - but sadly Alba has managed to become the anti-SNP party (well fkn done - people don't vote for negative stands - shtty position to hold and no chance they'll sort themselves out in time for next HR election I imagine).
ReplyDeleteKeith Brown, David Linden or Angus Robertson and I like Alyn Smith : of course in this competition it will be knives out.
Sorry but forget the plebicite - the SNP would need to become a true sovereignty party - at this time they are in disarray and directionless. The SNP would manage to fk up said plebicite (because the Scots are rather mealy mouthed in political terms) - the SNP must motivate the Scots or face a constant deterioration in its vote.
Here's a radical thought, why don't the SNP and Alba And the Greens work together ? I suppose it dpends on the new leader. Actually, I wish Patrick Stewart Was the SNP leader...
It's a lovely fkn war.
"and I like Alyn Smith"
DeleteReally? If all 100+ SNP parliamentarians stood for leader, and if I had a vote, I suspect I would rank Alyn Smith second-last. The only person I'd have below him is Stewart McDonald. They're both militarists and enthusiasts for the British security services.
Thing is, we're proponents - Mr and Mz MacAverage (and NanAverage) don't want too radical, yet they will respond to 2 things : a strong direction with an agreable tone and reasons constantly reiterated why the Brit state is negative with a Scottish state is positive. My prefered is David Linden (as I said with secret Salmond nurturing). Before Sturgeon, H Youssaf was my choice but he's a tad weary at this time (burnt out).
DeleteDon't let them choose K Forbes - too young - late thirties is good.
David Linden is 32 and a month younger than Kate Forbes
DeleteA strong direction in a reasonable tone? Well, Alyn Smith would offer the first half, there would be a strong direction towards greater integration within the British state. I'm not sure he'd do it in a reasonable tone, though.
DeleteI want to hear what Kate Forbes has to say about independence strategy, but unless she turns out to be part of the 'do nothing' school of thought, I really do think she's the best on offer in the MSP group in terms of her personal qualities. If MPs are considered, perhaps there would be one or two better options.
I think Alex Salmond has hit the nail on the head when he said that the "YES" umbrella needs to be started up again,so that the SNP in government is separate from the independence seeking group, that way negative political things will not be carried on to the independance cause.
ReplyDeleteThis is something the Yes movement should have taken on under its own steam. It was clear in 2014 that the SNP wanted to run and manage the whole show, but the Yes movement autonomously realised they would not gain enough widespread support that way, and developed its own distinct identity.
DeleteIt's been clear in the years since that the SNP would still like to run and manage the whole show again - though now it's about deflection and delay.
Time again for the Yes movement to grasp the thistle itself and start relentlessly talking and campaigning and driving onwards. Too much time has been wasted on "there's no point because there's no referendum on the horizon". If we wait around for a referendum or de facto to start the ball rolling, we'll be waiting until the last trumpet sounds.
It may well take the force of a movement that looks to be leaving the SNP behind in the dust for the party to actually make a move. Enough languishing in the quagmire of process. We've become activists for a process, not an ideal. Activists for a referendum vote, not an independent Scotland. Time to swap that approach.
I'm bemused by the comments that SNP MPs should stand for leader. No, it should be MSPs, otherwise it smacks of Westminster rules OK. I think we've had enougn of England pulling the strings, or at least I have.
ReplyDeleteSNP MPs are not representatives of Westminster, or of England, or of London rule. One or two of them may occasionally need reminding of that fact, but nevertheless...
DeleteIf a MP is elected leader, they can't be First Minister. Which means they have to appoint a MSP to be it anyway, or persuade one to resign for a by-election while Sturgeon lingers for months(before anyone suggests that Sturgeon should resign her seat as well, that doesn't solve the issue of finding an acting FM for the interval).
DeleteThe DUP tried something like that after they ejected Arlene Foster. It didn't help them and it'd be bloody awful optics to emulate them.
So even though they might be eligible to stand, I hope none of the MPs go for it and stick to endorsing the MSP candidate with the best plan. We already have issues to chew through without wasting time arguing about whether MP X is that much better than MSP Y to warrant going through the above... messiness.
I would much, much rather pick the right person and have a little bit of messiness than pick the wrong person just to avoid messiness. I would hope that would be a no-brainer. The best person available is probably Philippa Whitford. Now, if she doesn't want the job, then fine - but if she does, I don't think SNP members should spurn a golden opportunity just because there might have to be an interim FM for a short period (and it might well only have to be a very short period).
DeleteObviously rancid Robertson will be the new leader because it has already been ordained.
ReplyDeleteNicophancy on full display on WGD. These people never learn. They were told the current leadership would never deliver independence. Sturgeon never allowed the SNP conference to debate independence once during her tenure as leader. Even her resignation looks like removing the planned debate next month. A conference that had the chance to deliver a de facto referendum at Holyrood in Oct 23. No chance of that happening now but are the numpties bothered about that - not in the least. Are they bothered about the new great campaign for Scottish democracy that was trumpeted by Sturgeon and the big dug not that long ago. Not in the least - just more carrots they have eaten and forgotten about.
ReplyDeleteDr Jim says Sturgeon is still leader. He says she may come back as leader. Capella thinks it would be a great joke if Sturgeon turned round and said only kidding I'm staying as FM.
Sad sad deluded people.
Four things that if they happen may point to the SNP having elected the correct leader.
ReplyDelete1. The new leader tells the Britnats to shove the annual GERS report as the Scotgov will no longer issue it.
2. Peter Murrell is shown the door.
3. Murray Foote ( ex Daily Record Britnat editor/author of the Infamous Vow) is shown the door.
4. Robertson has no job in the Scottish government.
The big dug NOW comes out and says he favours a Holyrood 23 de facto just when the chance of that happening is disappearing at a rapid rate along with the spring conference debate. Two faced just doesn't do Kavanagh justice. The independence movement has spawned a load of can kicking charlatans who just love the status quo led by world champion can kicker Nicola Sturgeon.
ReplyDeleteIt has also produced one too many Bath-residing charlatans aimed at pipelining independence supporters towards the Conservative and Unionist Party. That's far more damaging than Kavanagh's relentless sunshine and rainbows takes will ever be.
DeleteIf only the Reverend limited himself to two faces.
It's also spawned a number of anonymous posters who hide behind the anonymous crowd of faceless posters.
DeleteOK Cubby
DeleteAh yes, because 'Independence for Scotland' isn't at all an anonymous moniker!
DeleteIt's always very telling just how prickly you become when the Rev called out. How "cunningly" (chortle) you attempt to deflect from the fact he is now a Tory-supporting Unionist.
If I were less gracious, I might suggest changing your anonymised moniker from "Independence for Scotland" to "Shilling For Stu". Because you're far less cunning with your little agenda than you seem to think.
Aye and you are the same "anonymous pratt " who cannae work out how to post under "me bungo pony" despite James spelling it out for you. But posting under pratt ( chortle - who posts chortle in brackets like that other than an infant ) sums you up just fine well. There is absolutely nothing gracious about you.
DeletePoor old bungo pony is just upset because he like so many other Sturgeonites punted the fairy story that Sturgeon would deliver independence. Sturgeon made a fool of you pony. Own it and move on and stop harassing people who told you the truth - you called them the malcontents - start acting with some humility and grace for once.
DeleteI mean, giving me a parenthetical chortle in return, only to follow it with a sneer about people who do such things, pretty much sums up the hapless fury that seems to characterise your contributions to this blog.
DeleteIn a similar vein, if you want your complaints about people posting to carry any weight at all, you'll have to start posting under your full name first, as James does. Until then, all you're doing is kicking up a hypocritical little storm in a teacup to deflect from the fact that you're quite obviously pulling for Mother Superior in Bath.
I'm afraid no amount of bottomless fury at the BTL comments on WGD, or rage that others choose to remain just as anonymous as you do, will disguise that fact.
Bungo pony - no humility no grace no style - like the communists in Russia clinging to the past - Sturgeonites no more. Own it bungo - Sturgeon made a fool of you. People like you bungo should be apologising for continuing to support Sturgeon and wasting excellent opportunities for independence. James posted to you and everybody how to use a consistent moniker but you try to hide your comments amongst the anonymous crowd. Pathetic.
DeleteI'm pulling for Scottish independence ( the clue is in the moniker ) - you pulled for the time waster Sturgeon - who you pulling for now? Robertson? Another time waster. Just like you pony.
I'm indifferent to the proposed conference as I want all of the leadership candidates to tell us how they propose to move us forward on independence. I'll vote for whichever one promises to hold an immediate general election for the Scottish Parliament, using that as the de facto referendum. After all the opposition parties at the English parliament all demanded a general election when May, then Johnson, and then Truss all stepped down. It would be hypocritical of their Scottish colleagues not to expect the same up here.
ReplyDeleteYou have to laugh at the Sturgeonite numpties. When asked to provide one example of where Sturgeon progressed Scottish independence the numpty yesindyref2 ( also known as the Bathtub Admiral ) says the de facto general election. That would be the course of action that Sturgeon and her gang rubbished for years and then just as an SNP conference is to discuss the matter Sturgeon probably scuppers it by resigning.
ReplyDeleteThe Admiral doesn't even wonder why it went from no ifs no buts last June that a de facto UK GE would happen to in November it needs to be discussed in a SNP conference in March to a resignation this month.
Yesindyref2 your loyalty to Sturgeon means no Indyref2. Own it.
Why so much hate, dude? You’re going to get your new First Minister now. Let’s park the in-fighting and focus on achieving our shared goal. Squabbling amongst ourselves just wastes energy, and if anything it probably moves us further away from independence (on the other hand, polite discussion/debate amongst independence supporters is a good thing).
DeleteWhy should I even converse with an anonymous poster. Tell me that dude!
DeleteUpdate: the special SNP conference has been cancelled.
DeleteThe SNP, a party that has as its mission Scottish independence but it never actually debates or does anything to deliver independence but is happy to raise money on the basis of having an independence referendum.
Joanna Cherry's article in The National this evening didn't miss and hit the wall! Well done Joanna. It needed saying.
ReplyDeleteWGD numpties slagging off Cherry. I suppose they don't want someone who is competent and actually wants independence.
DeleteWhether it's entirely intentional by Sturgeon or not, she's given the SNP all the cover they need (and indeed crave) to cancel the conference. They sound absolutely desperate to do so! I wonder why that could be...
ReplyDeleteConference has been postponed
ReplyDeleteWell it's happened now, she was just stalling, but it is what it is, it's all up for grabs in the summer I guess! maybe it will work out better if they give there heads a shake and get behind some good policy's that can draw a line between the screwups under the FM and get everyone on board, with currency ferries borders etc..
ReplyDeleteAmazing all the people who said what a surprise Sturgeon resigning - saying she is tired and wants to spend more time with her family - her nieces got a mention - was there a mention of her husband? Just think of all the books she can read and even write a memoir detailing all her achievements. Britnats like Dani Garavelli seem to be missing her already. Is Garavelli hoping to get a commission to ghost write it for her?
ReplyDeleteThis is what a surprise would have looked like to me.
< Sturgeon says she is resigning and will be immediately calling an election to vote for her as the FM of an independent Scotland in a de facto referendum. Sturgeon says she has mandate to do this from the people of Scotland.>
Now that is what an independence leader might have done in this situation not a time waster who garnered votes at elections promising a referendum she had no intention of delivering.