Voters' favoured choice as next SNP leader (Panelbase / Sunday Times, 21st-24th February 2023)
Kate Forbes 23%
Humza Yousaf 15%
Ash Regan 7%
Again, the crucial point here is the fieldwork dates - the witch-hunt against Kate Forbes from the media and a few of her colleagues began on the evening of the 20th, so the poll was entirely conducted after that watershed moment in the campaign, and some of it was conducted well afterwards. So it looks like Ms Forbes' popularity is proving pretty resilient, which perhaps means voters aren't as bothered about her religious views as some people were counting on.
Apparently (and I'm taking this from social media so don't take it as gospel), Ms Forbes also has a lead among the subsample of SNP voters in the poll, but it's a smaller one: Kate Forbes 20%, Humza Yousaf 18%, Ash Regan 9%. Only SNP members can vote in this contest, and it could be argued that if Ms Forbes only has a narrow lead among SNP voters, it's conceivable that Humza Yousaf has some sort of lead among actual members. But what we must always remember is that SNP leaders are elected by preferential voting, which means that if Ash Regan finishes third, her supporters' votes will be transferred to whoever they ranked second. And it seems highly likely that those Regan second preferences will break heavily for Forbes. So at the very least this looks like a highly competitive race, and it's arguable that (contrary to the assumptions of some pundits) Kate Forbes should even be regarded as the frontrunner right at this moment.
UPDATE: It turns out Panelbase also have net personal ratings for each candidate, and on those the gap between Ms Forbes and Mr Yousaf is much, much wider.
Kate Forbes: +14
Humza Yousaf: -16
I haven't found Ash Regan's rating yet, but she'll probably be in second place on this measure. (The reason I'm struggling to find some of the results is that I don't pay the Murdoch Levy and thus can't read the full Sunday Times article.)
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Why aren't pollsters asking respondents to rank candidates rather than just asking for their first preference? A poll like this seems close to a waste of time, other than to establish that Forbes and Yousaf are the frontrunners, which everyone knew from the start anyway.
ReplyDeleteWell, you could go further than that and say the only type of poll that would tell us anything at all is a poll of SNP members, and that may never happen due to the technical difficulty of it. But what we are getting from some polls are net popularity ratings for each candidate, and those speak to a far greater problem for Mr Yousaf than headline preferences would suggest.
DeleteWill SNP members just knowingly vote for a candidate that the voting public just don't care for eg Yousaf?
DeleteIf WGD numpties are anything to go by they might. Some numpties say it is none of the voting publics business and it all should be done in private. That sort of arrogance sounds like Labour in Scotland prior to 2012.
It may be a close call, but members I know favour Kate. Some of those members are in Humza’s constituency.
DeleteFrom having had discussions with some fellow SNP members this past week I do not detect any enthusiasm for Humza. I even know a fellow member who cancelled his subscription to The National because he thought that some editions last week were trying very hard to swing things in Humza's favour.
ReplyDeleteI had the distinct impression a few days ago that The National were going in for the kill and trying to finish Forbes off by creating a narrative that her campaign was a disaster area and she would inevitably have to withdraw. Now that her poll numbers are holding up, they may have to tone down that hostility quite a bit if they don't want to alienate a significant chunk of SNP members and voters.
DeleteAsh Regan's approval rating was -3
ReplyDeleteOn the GRA Reform Bill:
21% want to challenge bill in court
45% think it should be scrapped
33% want comprise with UK government
Nicola Sturgeon - I have no preferred candidate she says. A week later Sturgeon claims the opposition are scared of Humza. What next over the remaining weeks.
ReplyDeleteTo Quote you James.
ReplyDelete"Well, you could go further than that and say the only type of poll that would tell us anything at all is a poll of SNP members, and that may never happen due to the technical difficulty of it. But what we are getting from some polls are net popularity ratings for each candidate, and those speak to a far greater problem for Mr Yousaf than headline preferences would suggest."
One thing that any pollster cant pick up on James is how many people have left the SNP in dusgust due to the Quizzer Sturgeon and her Tranny Nazi GRR Brigade in the last 2 to 3 years. That would be people that would have voted for Forbes or Regan as thier one and two choices.
The supermarket shortages are all our fault says a Tory. We have become used to too much choice. Bloody cheek. The Tories who always punt the market can solve everything are now trying to get our expectations to be like in the Soviet Union - empty shelves. We can expect more of this as as a permanent feature say the Tories. Bloody Brexit. Bloody Tories and their hard Brexit.
ReplyDeleteSturgeon may not have been that good or honest but her government was still a million miles better than the corrupt Tories in Westminster who have pochled Billions of funds.
How probable is it that Yousaf could end up sinking in the polls and Regan takes second place behind Forbes? I can't help but feel that there may have been some benefit to the Forbes campaign having to weather an early political issue in this campaign, whereas it feels the next few weeks will be more focused on Yousaf's failures in office.
ReplyDeleteYousaf gets away with boasting about his Hate Crime Bill as if it is a great success. Does Kuennsberg challenge him - no. Later on this morning Martin Geissler stops an interview with Regan as the line continues to freeze.
ReplyDeleteSo the BBC can give Yousaf a nice soft soap interview on a clear line all the way to London but Regans interview is a fuzzy/freezing line from Edinburgh to Glasgow and a hard interviewer interrupting all the time.
According to Twitter, Regan's approval ratings in this poll are +3
ReplyDelete