One of the side-benefits of the (failed) attempts by Stuart Campbell and his most fanatical followers to bully me into silence a few weeks ago was that I ended up calculating the average Yes support in every calendar year since 2016. It took me forever, but the advantage is that I now have those figures if I need them in future, and I'll never have to calculate them again - except, of course, for the 2022 figure, which was provisional. Since I made the calculation, there have been two more polls, both showing an outright Yes majority, which means the 2022 average for Yes has nudged up slightly. Here is the updated list of averages...
Average yearly support for independence in conventional opinion polling:
2016: 47.7%
2017: 45.3%
2018: 45.5%
2019: 47.6%
2020: 53.0%
2021: 49.6%
2022: 49.3%
So it really just depends on whether we see any more independence polls over the remaining three-and-a-bit weeks of the year, and also whether the Yes majority we've seen in the last three polls holds up. Two or three more polls with a Yes lead could see the 2022 average overtaking 2021, and a proper flurry of polls all showing the same thing could mean 2022 joining 2020 as one of two calendar years in which the polling average has shown an outright pro-indy majority.
Usually Christmas is a quiet time for polls, but I distinctly remember blogging about a new poll late at night on Christmas Day last year (it was in one of the Boxing Day papers). So who knows. The bombshell Ipsos poll might yet motivate one or two newspapers to see if another firm would replicate the result over the next few weeks.
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How many polls (the right results obv) will it need for the 2022 yes figure to be over 50%?
ReplyDeleteIt would depend on the exact Yes figure in each poll.
DeleteFull marks for effort and stamina. Not saying it's anything but good to see, however, wouldn't a tight cluster of polls be just skewing results when what you want is more like regular sampling for a "Year Average"? Not my area of expertise, and I'm obviously over-thinking this. Keep up the good work.
ReplyDeleteWell, no, because there are bound to be variations across any year, caused by political events. Editing out a month or two (even if it's November and December) doesn't give you the full picture. One of the stories of this year has been the remarkable number of polls showing *very small* No majorities, which is the reason why an an average Yes majority is still just about in play.
Delete'a new poll late at night on Christmas Day last year ' - I remember you doing such a poll - was it just last year? Anyway, surely polling results are relevant up to 2 years ?
ReplyDeleteOne particular poll from Septemer 2014 interests me; Alec Salmond commissioned a Canadian polling company that found a majority for YES (56% if I recollect correctly) the week of the poll.
ReplyDeleteThat doesn't ring a bell. Was it an unpublished poll? The only Yes majorities in published polls were YouGov on the penultimate weekend, and ICM on the final weekend. The ICM poll isn't as well remembered, because it was surrounded by No majorities from other firms, and because Martin Boon practically disowned it as soon as it came out.
DeleteA private poll - Salmon believed he was going to announce a last minute YES victory. That was the story in the news.
DeleteThere was definitely a Yes poll kept private by the no side which spooked the British state. It was mentioned in the BBC doc and Joe Pike (? Forgive me if wrong name) book.
DeleteYes, I do remember the secret poll commissioned by the No side. I think we eventually found out it was a phone poll showing Yes on 53%. (Which would explain why it was so out of kilter with published polls from the same period, which were almost all online polls.)
DeleteI don't think they published a poll, but the company was called First Contact, a Canadian pollster, and they predicted on the day of the referendum that Yes would win with 54% of the vote. More info here:
Deletehttps://www.mykawartha.com/news-story/4868136-scotland-referendum-canadian-team-sees-yes-win-amid-large-voter-turnout/
Also, I'm struggling to find it, but Ruth Davidson confirmed that within a few days of the infamous 51% poll on September 6 2014, she was directly shown a poll commissioned by Downing Street putting Yes on 53%.
DeleteAsk Salmond - it was definitely reported in the news.
DeleteFair play putting it together. It would be interesting to see it from 2014 as well.
ReplyDeleteI know some don't like the demographic argument around shift but I really believe it. The people my age are becoming middle managers, movers and shakers. Most are yes supporters with most of our lives under a Scots Parliament. I don't see a fervour, I see a quiet shrug at what the UK is and a feeling we're tired to being told Scotland is rubbish by unionist politicians.
The Scottish movement has successfully managed to be progressive, open and multiethni which helps.
I feel indy is inevitable, it's all about timing.
If the English Parliament starts laying the groundwork for an insurance backed health system next year which because of Barnett formula and Internal Market Bill would have to be duplicated in Scotland how would that move the dial ?.
ReplyDeleteWell done for this doughty effort. It is interesting to look at the trend based on a 3 year 'rolling average'.
ReplyDelete46.2%, 46.1%, 48.7%, 50.1%, 50.6%.
I realise this only approximate since I have weighted your data for each year equally. Nevertheless, it gives grounds for some optimism.
It might indicate the growing anti independence bile from the unionist media, BBC and STV. It seems to be growing in volume with more and more of the discredited Project Fear tropes of 2014 being trotted out, even when demonstrably wrong (e.g. vote No and stay in Europe - yes, I know we are out, but the lie is still not challenged by the media, who continue the trope that Europe will not 'let Scotland back in'.
An early sign that Flynn may be a big improvement on Blowhard is that Pension Pete and " I hate the Russians" McDonald don't seem to like Flynn. Is it too much to hope for that some of these troughers may stand down at the next UK GE and let real independence supporters get elected. Yeh I know I'm dreaming.
ReplyDeleteThe WGD numpty Skier of many nationalities claims he watched some of the Netflix documentary and now wants Markle to be Queen of Scots in an independent Scotland. There seems to be an inexhaustible supply of pish that these numpties can post.
ReplyDeleteTalent show. Every 10 years. Toss ‘em out while they’re still young and glamorous. She can enter with the rest of them. It’ll be like Eurovision.
DeleteThe latest YouGov, Westminster voting intention, Scottish sub-sample (field work 6th -7th Dec) is unremarkable fair save one small detail.
ReplyDeleteCon - 12%, Lab - 29%, LibDem - 8%, SNP - 43%, Greens - 4%, Reform UK - 6%.
Stephen Flynn (for whom I have some time, having gotten rid of Wet Pishfart and that bought and paid for asset of the Anglo-American Security State, McDonald) didn’t get it entirely correct when he said Sunak had Starmer dancing to the Tories tune. In truth, it’s Farage that has the two of them rotating at his whim.
The mirror image of the Tory and Labour, best fit curves is broken. The Labour vote is dropping while the Tory vote is dropping / flatlining.
Having flatlined at 3% for a year, Reform UK are averaging 6% UK wide and 10% in the North of England. Reform UK are seemingly on the rise.
Sunak is desperate to keep those “Red wall” seats and Starmer is desperate to take them back. Nothing else matters. The tail wags the dog.